Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Sep 07, 2025

COVID-19: UK economy forecast to see strongest annual growth since 1941

COVID-19: UK economy forecast to see strongest annual growth since 1941

The predicted bounce-back will come after Britain suffered its biggest annual decline for three centuries last year.
The UK is on course for its strongest annual growth since the Second World War after a resilient performance through latest lockdowns, according to a respected economic forecaster.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by 6.8% this year, according to the EY ITEM Club - which would be the fastest pace since 1941.

Another forecast, from Goldman Sachs, predicts a "striking" growth rate of 7.8%, stronger than its expectation for the US, where Joe Biden's multi-trillion dollar stimulus effort is firing up recovery.

A bounce-back in 2021 already looked inevitable after UK GDP suffered a 9.8% slump in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic crushed economic activity.

That was the biggest annual decline for three centuries and the worst performance among the G7 group of major advanced nations.

But the "innovative and flexible" response of UK businesses and consumers to the pandemic means forecasters are now upgrading how strong they think the bounce-back will be.

The EY ITEM Club had previously pencilled in 5% growth for this year - a figure previously matched in 1997 - with the performance held back by the impact of lockdowns in the early part of the year.

But it now estimates that the economy only shrank by just over 1% in the first quarter, not the 3-4% contraction previously feared.

The current April-June period alone is predicted to see growth of 4-5%, helped by the reopening of the economy and continued support from government spending and Bank of England policy.

The latest report from EY ITEM Club - which uses the Treasury model for the UK economy - also suggests that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic level by the second quarter of next year, three months earlier than previously predicted.

Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: "The UK economy has proven to be more resilient than seemed possible at the outset of the pandemic.

"Businesses and consumers have been innovative and flexible in adjusting to COVID-19 restrictions and, while restrictions have caused disruption, lessons learned over the last 12 months have helped minimise the economic impact.

"Our latest forecast suggests that the UK economy will emerge from the pandemic with much less long-term 'scarring' than was originally envisaged and looks set for a strong recovery over the rest of the year and beyond."

The International Monetary Fund currently predicts UK growth of 5.3% for 2021, with the Bank of England pencilling in 5% expansion and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) just 4%.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
Tether Expands into Gold Sector with Profit-Driven Diversification
Trump’s New War – and the ‘Drug Tyrant’ Fearing Invasion: ‘1,200 Missiles Aimed at Us’
At the Parade in China: Laser Weapons, 'Eagle Strike,' and a Missile Capable of 'Striking Anywhere in the World'
Information Warfare in the Age of AI: How Language Models Become Targets and Tools
Israeli Airstrike in Yemen Kills Houthi Prime Minister
After the Shock of Defeat, Iranians Yearn for Change
YouTube Altered Content by Artificial Intelligence – Without Permission
Iran Faces Escalating Water Crisis as Protests Spread
More Than Half a Million Evacuated as Typhoon Kajiki Heads for Vietnam
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
United States Sells Luxury Yacht Amadea, Valued at Approximately $325 Million, in First Sale of a Seized Russian Yacht Since the Invasion of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez announce engagement
Asia-Pacific dominates world’s busiest flight routes, with South Korea’s Jeju–Seoul corridor leading global rankings
Private Welsh island with 19th-century fort listed for sale at over £3 million
Sam Altman challenges Elon Musk with plans for Neuralink rival
Australia to Recognize the State of Palestine at UN Assembly
The Collapse of the Programmer Dream: AI Experts Now the Real High-Earners
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Germany’s Economic Breakdown and the Return of Militarization: From Industrial Collapse to a New Offensive Strategy
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
×