Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Monday, Mar 09, 2026

Deutsche Bank Predicts U.S. Recession in ‘23 as Fed Boosts Rates

Deutsche Bank Predicts U.S. Recession in ‘23 as Fed Boosts Rates

The U.S. will tumble into a recession next year as the Federal Reserve jacks up interest rates to combat high and widening inflation, Deutsche Bank economists David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper said in a report on Tuesday.
Less than a month after saying the U.S. would experience a “mild” recession, Deutsche Bank has doubled down, saying the recession will be worse than it previously imagined.

In the latest edition of “What’s in the tails?” Deutsche Bank Research economists David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Hooper and Jim Reid wrote how Fed Funds and the ECB rate may have to go higher than the consensus believes and that, as a consequence, the upcoming recession could be more severe than even sceptics believe.

The bank now expects “a major recession” in late 2023 to early 2024, according to a Tuesday note to investors titled “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected.” Although the bank predicts the economy could pick up in mid-2024, things will get worse before they get better, according to the report.

The bank had previously raised eyebrows in early April as the first major bank to predict a recession would hit the U.S. by late next year. The Tuesday report, written by a team led by Deutsche Bank’s chief economist and head of research David Folkerts-Landau, questions why other major banks maintain rosier projections for the U.S. economy.

“I am very surprised we are the extreme outlier on the street,” Folkerts-Landau writes in the report. “Given the macro starting point, my view is that the burden of proof should be on why this boom/bust cycle won’t end in a recession.”

In a report on April 5, the bank said that the country would enter a “mild” recession late next year because of a number of factors, of which rising inflation was the most important.

The only way to minimize the detrimental impact of prolonged inflation is “to err on the side of doing too much,” which means the Fed must rapidly increase interest rates, Folkerts-Landau wrote in the Tuesday report.

Deutsche Bank is among the most bearish of the major banks when it comes to its recession prediction. Goldman Sachs put the odds of a recession within the next two years at 35% while Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer wrote last month that her team was “far from calling a U.S. recession.”

Inflation has plagued the U.S. economy since last year, most recently hitting a four-decade high of ​​8.5% last month compared to a year ago after hitting 7.9% in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April report on the consumer price index. For six straight months, inflation has been higher than the Federal Reserve’s 6% target—its ultimate goal is 2%. But the Fed has tried to combat surging prices by raising interest rates. The central bank raised rates in March, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that a half-point increase in rates was “on the table” for next month.

Although the Fed is attempting to tackle inflation, Deutsche writes in the report that the central bank has never before been able to correct course even when it missed its employment objectives or inflation goals by smaller margins.

“The Fed has been slow to catch up with these developments and finds itself both well behind the curve and with less leverage than in the past to deal with the problem,” the report states.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Oil Prices Retreat From Peak as G7 Weighs Release of Strategic Reserves
Pentagon Identifies U.S. Soldier Who Died After Iranian Strike on Saudi Air Base
Why Saudi Arabia’s $50 Billion ‘The Line’ Megacity Slowed — and How Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping the Plan
United States Withdraws Diplomatic Staff from Saudi Arabia and Southeast Turkey as Regional Conflict Escalates
Fanatics Moves Tom Brady Flag Football Showcase from Saudi Arabia to Los Angeles Amid Regional War
Saudi Arabia Seeks Strategic Support from Pakistan After Iranian Missile and Drone Attacks
Saudi Arabia Begins Oil Output Cuts as Hormuz Disruption Forces Storage Limits
Saudi Arabia Travel Advisory Tightened as Middle East War Triggers Regional Security Alerts
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran It Will Be ‘Biggest Loser’ as Drone Strikes Spread Across Gulf States
Lindsey Graham Urges Saudi Arabia to Join US Effort Against Iran as War Expands
Saudi Crown Prince Holds Strategic Calls With Spanish and Ukrainian Leaders Amid Regional Tensions
Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways Shifts Operations to Saudi Arabia Amid Regional Airspace Disruptions
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix: Why Jeddah’s Night Race Has Become One of Formula One’s Most Distinctive Events
F1 Leadership Addresses Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Races as Middle East Conflict Raises Safety Concerns
Zelenskyy Offers Saudi Crown Prince Assistance to Counter Iranian Drone Threat
Seventh U.S. Service Member Dies from Injuries After Iranian Strike in Saudi Arabia
Civilian Infrastructure Increasingly Hit as Iran Conflict Expands and Saudi Arabia Reports First Fatalities
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran to Halt Attacks and Signals Potential Retaliation
US Embassy in Riyadh Issues Security Alert Urging Americans to Shelter in Place Amid Regional Attacks
Projectile Strike on Saudi Residential Building Kills Two as Regional Conflict Expands
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran While Expanding Diplomatic Efforts to Contain Widening Middle East War
Iran’s President Rejects U.S. Surrender Demand as Drone and Missile Strikes Hit Gulf States
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Drone Swarm Targeting Strategic Shaybah Oil Field
Pakistan Faces Growing Pressure to Balance Ties With Iran and Saudi Arabia as Regional War Intensifies
Middle East Conflict Tests Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision to Transform Saudi Arabia Into a Global Hub
Proposed U.S.–Saudi Nuclear Deal Could Ease Traditional Nonproliferation Requirements
Iran Claims Strike on U.S.-Linked Oil Tanker Near Saudi Waters as Maritime Tensions Escalate
Saudi Arabia Says Air Defences Destroyed 23 Drones and Three Missiles Amid Escalating Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran Against ‘Miscalculation’ After Missile and Drone Attacks Across Gulf
Iranian Missiles Intercepted Across Gulf as Air Defences Activate in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Bahrain
U.S. Justice Department Pursues Criminal Cases Against Cuban Officials in New Legal Push
Abrupt Cancellation of U.S. Army Exercise Sparks Speculation Over Possible Middle East Deployment
Saudi Arabia Led OPEC Output Surge Ahead of Iran Strikes, Survey Finds
Cristiano Ronaldo Travels to Spain for Hamstring Treatment After Injury in Saudi Pro League Match
Saudi Aramco Reroutes Oil to Red Sea as Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Hit Gulf Exports
Saudi Arabia Presses Ahead With Economic Diversification Despite Fiscal and External Deficits
Middle East Conflict Puts Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Formula One Races at Risk
Iran Targets Israeli Diplomatic Site in Bahrain and US Air Base in Qatar as Regional Conflict Expands
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Three Ballistic Missiles Targeting Prince Sultan Air Base
Iran Launches Fresh Missile and Drone Attacks Across Middle East as Regional War Intensifies
Saudi Arabia Opens Direct Communication Channel With Iran in Bid to Prevent Wider Regional War
Saudi Arabia Maintains Strong Fiscal Position Despite Global Uncertainty, Finance Ministry Says
Saudi Arabia Considers Response After Iranian Drone Strike Hits Major Northern Oil Refinery
Saudi Carrier Flynas Plans Limited Flight Resumption to Dubai Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia and UAE Pledge Close Coordination to Secure Oil Supplies for Japan
Middle East Conflict Casts Doubt Over Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Formula One Races
Iran Rejects Claims of Attacks on Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia and Oman
Saudi Arabia Condemns Iranian Strikes Targeting Türkiye and Azerbaijan
Saudi Pro League Orders Clubs to Continue Matches Despite Escalating Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Scrambles to Redirect Oil Exports as Gulf Storage Nears Capacity
×