Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Apr 26, 2026

How expensive will air travel be after the Covid-19 crisis?

When the state of Florida began enacting stay-at-home measures and closing beaches in mid-March, in response to the threat of Covid-19, Miami-based real estate agent and artist Nadia Bouzid was in the middle of painting a mural inside a new hotel in Cancun, Mexico.

As countries formulate plans towards reopening borders and businesses, and airlines begin to see a return of passenger traffic, Bouzid's question is pertinent. What will airfares be like, when "all this" is over?

Social distancing means fewer seats sold, so will airfares go higher?

Delta Air Lines is blocking middle seats and capping flight loads through June 30 for social distancing, allowing only 50 to 60% of available seats on a flight to be booked. Other airlines adopting similar controls include Emirates, American Airlines, Japan Airlines, United, Wizz Air and more.

Many other airlines are allowing bookings as normal, with one going so far as attempting to have passengers pay to observe social distancing. On May 4, ultra-low-cost US carrier Frontier Airlines announced a "More Room" fee, purchasable for flights between May 8 and August 31. With this fee, a passenger could pay from $39 each way to guarantee that the middle seat stays unoccupied.

The fee lasted all of 48 hours; late on May 6, the airline rescinded the plan after it received criticism from members of the United States Congress.
"We recognize the concerns raised that we are profiting from safety and this was never our intent," Frontier CEO Barry Biffle said in a letter to the lawmakers.

Nonetheless, it's IATA, the global airline trade association, that wants to have the last word on the issue of social distancing on aircraft. Its May 5 press release advocates against forcing airlines to block middle seats.

"IATA is essentially saying that airlines' financial health matters more than the health of their employees or customers," says Henry Harteveldt, airline analyst at Atmosphere Research Group. "That press release includes an estimate that airfares will have to increase if carriers are required to leave middle seats open. If demand remains low, and airlines have to compete for a limited number of travelers, airfares will likely use low fares to attract as many travelers as they're able."

What's crucial to restoring that demand, says Harteveldt, is first restoring a sense of safety.

"Fear and trust will be the two emotions at the forefront of people's minds when planning a trip, and if a person doesn't feel an airline adequately respects their health, they will find an airline that does."

Oil prices are dropping, so will airfares go lower?

Blended and refined, crude oil becomes the jet fuel needed to literally power aviation. Airlines levy fuel surcharges to help pay for it, which are included in the final ticket price as a "YQ" fee, which accounts for variations in fuel cost. At the end of April, prices for barrels of crude oil dropped off a cliff.

For a standard British Airways economy round-trip ticket between London and Johannesburg for a trip in August 2020, the YQ fuel surcharge is £189, 30% of the total £610 airfare (that's a $229 surcharge making up a $737 fare). Would British Airways seek to pass potential savings on jet fuel prices to passengers, by removing or lessening fuel surcharges? If only it was so simple.

"Jet fuel typically accounts for 20-25% of an airline's operating expenses," Manoel Suhet tells CNN. Suhet, CEO at Business Traveler Deals and a former airline executive with a background in international oil distribution, weighs that if crude oil and jet fuel prices continue to decline, air carriers may benefit from this lower price environment, but it will hardly be immediate.

"Many airlines use fuel hedging to minimize the risk of fuel price volatility by agreeing to purchase a certain amount of oil in the future at a set price," says Suhet. "And the airlines are adapting these strategies to the current climate, to improve cash-flow position by streamlining costs."
In other words, even though oil is cheap, jet fuel still needs to be refined from it, a process that adds to the price, and laying out cash right now to buy future fuel isn't exactly at the top of an airline's to-do list.

Destinations need tourism, so will there be airfare deals?

Uncertainty breeds hesitation and, for some, even shockingly low airfares may not be enough to inspire bookings until the health and economic situations of destinations stabilize.

Kathy Kass, a New York City lawyer and fitness blogger, typically travels internationally every month and likes to monitor airfare deals. In March, she began canceling planned trips and holding off on planning others: "I was rebooking for late June into early July, thinking things have to be okay by then, but now I'm sitting with vouchers for a few airlines and I don't really want to collect more."

She has been tempted, however. On April 29, travel blogs kicked up a frenzy over an $840 round-trip business class deal from Canada or Mexico to Bali, Indonesia, a ticket that typically prices more than four times that amount.

Kass decided not to book. "I've always wanted to visit Bali, but I just don't know what the situation will be," she tells NBC. "I don't want to put myself in harm's way. I also don't know what's going on in Indonesia, and don't know when Bali will again be ready for guests."

Such sentiments will prove major obstacles to tourism revival, and the Italian island of Sicily has already announced their plan to overcome this hesitation and grease a return for holidaymakers.

The Times of London reports that Sicily's regional government has set aside €50 million for paying half of airfares and one of every three hotel nights for visitors, while also including free entry to museums and archaeological sites. The caveat? Travelers willing to take advantage must holiday in Sicily this year, following the opening of Italy's borders to foreign tourists, and that date hasn't yet been set.

Asiana Airlines is taking a similarly forgiving stance, promoting ticket sales with the promise of "buy now, fly any date." Book a flight from the United States to South Korea on Asiana and the airline will waive change fees not only once, a conciliation that has become standard among airlines during COVID, but up to three times.

Airlines are adjusting for demand, so will airfares stay the same?

In the heart of Australia's red center, at an airport more accustomed to welcoming tour groups bound for Uluru, the tarmac has transformed into a museum to modern Singaporean commercial aviation.

More than $5 billion worth of aircraft are parked at Alice Springs Airport, from Singapore A380s and 777s, to Scoot 787s and SilkAir 737s. It's hopefully not "goodbye," but "see you later" for these planes, as the arid environment of the Outback helps keep them ready to resume service. But, for many other aircraft, the Covid-19 crisis will see them go gently into a good night.

Virgin Atlantic has sped up the retirement of their 747 and A340-600 fleets, while also closing a base at London-Gatwick. KLM is saying goodbye to its iconic 747s sooner than planned, and American Airlines had a busy April retiring its 757, 767, E190 and A330-300 fleets (though some AA 767s are still flying as makeshift cargo planes).

And, as planes leave the skies, so do flight and cabin crew. In a May note to the pilots of United Airlines, as obtained by Simple Flying, Bryan Quigley, senior vice president of flight operations at United, shares the sobering fact that United pilots currently outnumber passengers: "On average we are only carrying about 10,000 passengers per day...we currently have more pilots than passengers on any given day."

The note went on to state that United would be "displacing" 4,457 out of 12,250 pilots as of June 30.
This is hardly the leading edge of aviation sector jobs cuts; some airlines have been slicing staff for weeks, with Ryanair planning to lay off 3,000, British Airways furloughing more than 30,000, and Lufthansa Group placing 80,000 workers on reduced hours, all by the start of May.

In no uncertain terms, airlines are adjusting for demand. This agility is key to allowing them to continue offering airfares as affordable or as "normal" as the public were accustomed to paying prior to the Covid-19 crisis.

"All major airlines are expecting their companies to have a smaller size once they resume operations," says Pablo Chiozza, CEO at World Travel Solutions and former senior vice president at LATAM Airlines. "This means that their capacity will be adjusted to the demand, and at run rate they are not expecting many empty seats."

So, how expensive will air travel be?

After the Covid-19 crisis ends and Nadia Bouzid goes to book a one-way economy flight back to Cancun to finish her mural, the price of the ticket may be $70, but it could also be $200 or $350.

Airfares will continue to respond to supply and demand, but the possibility of tourism promotions or the need to purchase social distance on planes are emerging -- provisionally, at least -- as forces destined to push prices a little lower, or a little higher.

Opinions on what are or are not good deals on tickets and the decision to purchase will, as before, still be up to you, the traveler.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
News Roundup
Strategic Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Security Concerns as Trump Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Keeps Red Sea Oil Exports Flowing Despite Regional Tensions
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
Saudi Business Leader Abudawood Appointed Chairman of Merit Incentives Group
TotalEnergies Confirms Damage at Saudi Refinery Following Security Incident
Saudi Arabia Launches Early Construction Phase for King Salman Stadium Project
Saudi Shift Away from Longstanding Dollar Oil Framework Gains Attention Amid Iran Conflict
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Resolve Long-Running Transit Visa Dispute
Saudi Oil Capacity and Pipeline Flows Reduced as Supply Risks Intensify
TotalEnergies Reports Damage to Saudi SATORP Refinery Following Security Incidents
Gulf States Assess Prospects of U.S.-Iran Truce as Regional Stability Efforts Intensify
South Korea Resumes Honey Exports to Saudi Arabia Following Sanitary Approval
Saudi Arabia Carries Out Sentences in Eastern Province Following Security Convictions
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Backs King Street’s Regional Credit Strategy
Saudi Arabia Secures World Cup Return as Egypt Celebrates Landmark Qualification
Iran and Saudi Arabia Intensify Diplomatic Engagement Amid Regional Tensions
Russia and Saudi Arabia Open Visa-Free Travel Corridor for Citizens
Saudi Oil Output Capacity Reduced by 600,000 Barrels Per Day Amid Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Suspends Operations at Select Energy Sites as Precautionary Measure
Saudi Arabia Halts Operations at Multiple Energy Facilities Amid Heightened Tensions
Global Markets Jolt as Iran Signals Ceasefire Breakdown and Rising Regional Tensions
King Street Aligns with Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund to Expand Alternative Investments in Middle East
Attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Hub Raises Global Supply Concerns
Debate Emerges Over Saudi Strategic Decisions as Gulf Cooperation Council Dynamics Come Into Focus
Saudi Arabia Expands Full Workforce Localisation to 69 Professions in Major Labour Reform
Emerging Alliance of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia Signals New Regional Power Dynamic Amid Iran Conflict
Iran Linked to Strikes Across Gulf States Following Refinery Attack Escalation
Saudi Arabia Voices Concern Over Fragile US–Iran Ceasefire Stability
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
Saudi Arabia’s Key East-West Oil Pipeline Targeted Following Ceasefire Announcement
Iran Targets Saudi Arabia’s East-West Oil Pipeline in Escalating Regional Tensions
Trump Warns of Civilizational Stakes as Iran Halts Negotiations
Saudi Companies Expand Remote Work Measures Ahead of Iran-Related Security Concerns
Iran Warns of Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure if US Targets Its Facilities
Iran Urges Civilians to Form Human Shields Around Nuclear Sites as Diplomatic Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices to Record Premiums Amid Supply Pressures Linked to Iran Conflict
Key Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Heightened Security Concerns Linked to Iran
Formula One Calendar Gap Explained as Fans Await Next Grand Prix
Growing Strain on the Petrodollar System Comes Into Focus Amid Iran Conflict
Reported Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Complex Raises Global Energy Supply Concerns
FedEx Introduces New Digital Tool to Streamline Imports into Saudi Arabia
Iran Claims Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Complex Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Taiwan to Source Oil Shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Ports
Saudi Arabia Evacuates Riyadh Financial District as Precaution Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia Balances Ambitious Economic Vision Amid Regional Tensions and Financial Pressures
Budget Saudi Arabia Reports Strong Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance
Saudi Arabia Expands Investment in Capcom With Stake Reaching Six Percent
Saudi Arabia Assesses Significant Economic Impact From Regional Conflict Involving Iran
US Beef Secures Expanded Market Access in Saudi Arabia
×