Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Tuesday, Feb 24, 2026

No-deal Brexit 'to push UK debt to 50-year high'

No-deal Brexit 'to push UK debt to 50-year high'

Government borrowing would reach its highest level in more than half a century, a think tank warns.

Even a "relatively benign" no-deal Brexit would push UK debt to its highest since the 1960s, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.

The think tank said borrowing was likely to rise to £100bn and total debt would soar to 90% of national income.

"The government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor," said IFS director Paul Johnson.

The Treasury said any decisions would be made "with a view to the long-term sustainability of the public finances".


Spending rules


The gloomy forecasts are part of the IFS Green Budget, looking at the challenges facing Chancellor Sajid Javid as he prepares for his first Budget.

The IFS's Mr Johnson said: "Given the extraordinary level of uncertainty and risks facing the economy and public finances, it [the government] should not be looking to offer further permanent overall tax giveaways in any forthcoming Budget.

"In the case of a no-deal Brexit, though, it should be implementing carefully targeted and temporary tax cuts and spending increases where it can effectively support the economy."

The next election: What will the parties promise?

A simple guide to Brexit

Will Johnson's Brexit plan work for business?

But even before the cost of a possible no-deal Brexit is factored in, the think tank said the government was set to break its own spending rules.

The IFS forecasts that annual borrowing - the difference between what the government spends and what it receives through, for example, taxation - will top £50bn next year.

That will be about 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of national income. Under current spending rules the government can only borrow up to 2% of national income.

The think tank said the government's current plans for day-to-day spending next year are closer to the levels proposed by Labour's 2017 manifesto than plans laid out by the Conservative party at the time.

An HM Treasury spokesperson said: "September's spending round supported the people's priorities of health, education and the police within the existing fiscal rules, as we said it would be.

"Beyond that, the chancellor has already said that we will be reviewing the fiscal framework as we turn the page on austerity. In so doing, we will retain a fiscal anchor to public spending so that decisions are taken with a view to the long-term sustainability of the public finances."

A doubling in the annual budget deficit, leading, in relation to the size of the economy, to the highest government debt since the 1960s.

These are the new forecasts of the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies for how a no-deal Brexit is likely to drench the UK's public finances in red ink. Only on the extraordinary scale of the fiscal collapse of the 2008 financial crisis are these numbers modest.

On any ordinary scale they do matter - an annual deficit heading back up towards £100bn, and national debt closer to 90% of GDP for the first time in half a century.

And all this comes at a time where the institute concludes that the government is no longer taking its own fiscal rules seriously, borrowing more to spend more on public services even as the Treasury approaches its self-imposed limits.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
GCC Secretary-General Holds Talks with EU Ambassador in Riyadh
Gulf States’ AI Investment Drive Seen as Strategic Bet on Technology and U.S. Security Ties
African Union Commission Chair Meets Saudi Vice Foreign Minister to Deepen Strategic Cooperation
President El-Sisi Holds Strategic Talks with Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh
Lucid Unveils Up to $12,000 Incentive for Air and Gravity Models in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Enters Global AI Partnership, Expanding Its Role in International Technology Governance
Saudi Arabia’s Landmark U.S. LNG Agreement Signals Major Strategic Shift
Saudi Arabia Accelerates Global Gaming Push with Billion-Dollar Deals and Expanded PIF Mandate
Saudi Arabia Reports $25.28 Billion Budget Deficit in Fourth Quarter of 2025
Alvarez & Marsal Tax Establishes Dedicated Pillar Two and Transfer Pricing Team in Saudi Arabia
United States Approves Over Fifteen Billion Dollars in Major Arms Sales to Israel and Saudi Arabia
Pre-Iftar Walks Gain Momentum as Ramadan Wellness Trend Spreads
Middle East Jackup Rig Fleet Contracts Further After Saudi Drilling Suspensions
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Prepare to Sign Five Gigawatt Renewable Energy Deal at COP31
King Mohammed VI Congratulates Saudi Leadership on Founding Day, Reaffirming Strategic Ties
US Envoy Huckabee Clarifies Remarks on Israel After Expansionism Controversy
Saudi Arabia Introduces Limited Exceptions to Regional Headquarters Requirement for Foreign Firms
Saudi Arabia Joins Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence, Elevating Its Role in Shaping AI Governance
Saudi Arabia and Arab States Mobilise Diplomatically After U.S. Envoy’s Israel Remarks
Cristiano Ronaldo Reaffirms His Commitment to Saudi Arabia Amid Transfer Speculation
Proposed US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Raises Questions Over Uranium Enrichment Provisions
Saudi Arabia Sends 81st Aid Flight to Gaza as Humanitarian Air Bridge Continues
Global Games Show Riyadh 2026 Positioned as Catalyst for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia Eases Procurement Rules, Allowing Foreign Firms Greater Access to Government Contracts
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Seal Two Billion Dollar Solar Energy Agreement
Saudi Crown Prince Reportedly Sends Letter to UAE Leader Over Yemen and Sudan Policies
Saudi Arabia Voices Concerns to UAE Over Sudan Conflict and Yemen Strategy
Saudi Arabia Joins Global Artificial Intelligence Alliance to Strengthen International Collaboration
Shura Island Positioned as Flagship of Saudi Arabia’s Ambitious Red Sea Tourism Drive
Saudi Arabia Rebukes Mike Huckabee Over Remarks in Tucker Carlson Interview
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises the rapid progress of Chinese tech companies.
Concerns Mount Over Potential Saudi Uranium Enrichment in Prospective US Nuclear Accord
Trump Directs Government to Release UFO and Alien Information
Trump Signs Global 10% Tariffs on Imports
Investability Emerges as the Defining Test of Saudi Arabia’s Next Market Phase
Saudi Arabia’s Packaging Market Accelerates as Sustainability and E-Commerce Drive Transformation
Saudi Arabia Unveils $32 Billion Push Into Theme Parks and Global Entertainment
Saudi Crude Exports to India Climb Sharply, Closing Gap With Russia
Saudi Arabia’s Halal Cosmetics Market Expands as Faith and Ethical Beauty Drive Growth
ImmunityBio Secures Saudi Partnerships to Launch Flagship Cancer Therapy
United Kingdom Denies U.S. Access to Military Base for Potential Iran Strike
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Launch Expanded Renewable Energy Partnership
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
Mongolian Mining Family’s HK$247 Million Stanley Home Purchase Highlights Resilient Luxury Market
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Saudi Arabia Tops Middle East Green Building Rankings with Record Growth in 2025
Qatar and Saudi Arabia Each Commit One Billion Dollars to President Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Initiative
Ramadan 2026 Prayer Times Set as Fasting Begins in Saudi Arabia and Egypt Announces Dates
Saudi Arabia Launches Ramadan 2026 Hotel Campaign to Boost Religious and Leisure Tourism
Saudi Arabia Seeks Reroute of Greece-Bound Fibre-Optic Cable Through Syria Instead of Israel
×