Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Apr 26, 2026

No-deal Brexit 'to push UK debt to 50-year high'

No-deal Brexit 'to push UK debt to 50-year high'

Government borrowing would reach its highest level in more than half a century, a think tank warns.

Even a "relatively benign" no-deal Brexit would push UK debt to its highest since the 1960s, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.

The think tank said borrowing was likely to rise to £100bn and total debt would soar to 90% of national income.

"The government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor," said IFS director Paul Johnson.

The Treasury said any decisions would be made "with a view to the long-term sustainability of the public finances".


Spending rules


The gloomy forecasts are part of the IFS Green Budget, looking at the challenges facing Chancellor Sajid Javid as he prepares for his first Budget.

The IFS's Mr Johnson said: "Given the extraordinary level of uncertainty and risks facing the economy and public finances, it [the government] should not be looking to offer further permanent overall tax giveaways in any forthcoming Budget.

"In the case of a no-deal Brexit, though, it should be implementing carefully targeted and temporary tax cuts and spending increases where it can effectively support the economy."

The next election: What will the parties promise?

A simple guide to Brexit

Will Johnson's Brexit plan work for business?

But even before the cost of a possible no-deal Brexit is factored in, the think tank said the government was set to break its own spending rules.

The IFS forecasts that annual borrowing - the difference between what the government spends and what it receives through, for example, taxation - will top £50bn next year.

That will be about 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of national income. Under current spending rules the government can only borrow up to 2% of national income.

The think tank said the government's current plans for day-to-day spending next year are closer to the levels proposed by Labour's 2017 manifesto than plans laid out by the Conservative party at the time.

An HM Treasury spokesperson said: "September's spending round supported the people's priorities of health, education and the police within the existing fiscal rules, as we said it would be.

"Beyond that, the chancellor has already said that we will be reviewing the fiscal framework as we turn the page on austerity. In so doing, we will retain a fiscal anchor to public spending so that decisions are taken with a view to the long-term sustainability of the public finances."

A doubling in the annual budget deficit, leading, in relation to the size of the economy, to the highest government debt since the 1960s.

These are the new forecasts of the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies for how a no-deal Brexit is likely to drench the UK's public finances in red ink. Only on the extraordinary scale of the fiscal collapse of the 2008 financial crisis are these numbers modest.

On any ordinary scale they do matter - an annual deficit heading back up towards £100bn, and national debt closer to 90% of GDP for the first time in half a century.

And all this comes at a time where the institute concludes that the government is no longer taking its own fiscal rules seriously, borrowing more to spend more on public services even as the Treasury approaches its self-imposed limits.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
News Roundup
Strategic Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Security Concerns as Trump Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Keeps Red Sea Oil Exports Flowing Despite Regional Tensions
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
Saudi Business Leader Abudawood Appointed Chairman of Merit Incentives Group
TotalEnergies Confirms Damage at Saudi Refinery Following Security Incident
Saudi Arabia Launches Early Construction Phase for King Salman Stadium Project
Saudi Shift Away from Longstanding Dollar Oil Framework Gains Attention Amid Iran Conflict
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Resolve Long-Running Transit Visa Dispute
Saudi Oil Capacity and Pipeline Flows Reduced as Supply Risks Intensify
TotalEnergies Reports Damage to Saudi SATORP Refinery Following Security Incidents
Gulf States Assess Prospects of U.S.-Iran Truce as Regional Stability Efforts Intensify
South Korea Resumes Honey Exports to Saudi Arabia Following Sanitary Approval
Saudi Arabia Carries Out Sentences in Eastern Province Following Security Convictions
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Backs King Street’s Regional Credit Strategy
Saudi Arabia Secures World Cup Return as Egypt Celebrates Landmark Qualification
Iran and Saudi Arabia Intensify Diplomatic Engagement Amid Regional Tensions
Russia and Saudi Arabia Open Visa-Free Travel Corridor for Citizens
Saudi Oil Output Capacity Reduced by 600,000 Barrels Per Day Amid Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Suspends Operations at Select Energy Sites as Precautionary Measure
Saudi Arabia Halts Operations at Multiple Energy Facilities Amid Heightened Tensions
Global Markets Jolt as Iran Signals Ceasefire Breakdown and Rising Regional Tensions
King Street Aligns with Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund to Expand Alternative Investments in Middle East
Attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Hub Raises Global Supply Concerns
Debate Emerges Over Saudi Strategic Decisions as Gulf Cooperation Council Dynamics Come Into Focus
Saudi Arabia Expands Full Workforce Localisation to 69 Professions in Major Labour Reform
Emerging Alliance of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia Signals New Regional Power Dynamic Amid Iran Conflict
Iran Linked to Strikes Across Gulf States Following Refinery Attack Escalation
Saudi Arabia Voices Concern Over Fragile US–Iran Ceasefire Stability
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
Saudi Arabia’s Key East-West Oil Pipeline Targeted Following Ceasefire Announcement
Iran Targets Saudi Arabia’s East-West Oil Pipeline in Escalating Regional Tensions
Trump Warns of Civilizational Stakes as Iran Halts Negotiations
Saudi Companies Expand Remote Work Measures Ahead of Iran-Related Security Concerns
Iran Warns of Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure if US Targets Its Facilities
Iran Urges Civilians to Form Human Shields Around Nuclear Sites as Diplomatic Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices to Record Premiums Amid Supply Pressures Linked to Iran Conflict
Key Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Heightened Security Concerns Linked to Iran
Formula One Calendar Gap Explained as Fans Await Next Grand Prix
Growing Strain on the Petrodollar System Comes Into Focus Amid Iran Conflict
Reported Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Complex Raises Global Energy Supply Concerns
FedEx Introduces New Digital Tool to Streamline Imports into Saudi Arabia
Iran Claims Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Complex Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Taiwan to Source Oil Shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Ports
Saudi Arabia Evacuates Riyadh Financial District as Precaution Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia Balances Ambitious Economic Vision Amid Regional Tensions and Financial Pressures
Budget Saudi Arabia Reports Strong Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance
Saudi Arabia Expands Investment in Capcom With Stake Reaching Six Percent
Saudi Arabia Assesses Significant Economic Impact From Regional Conflict Involving Iran
US Beef Secures Expanded Market Access in Saudi Arabia
×