Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

UK economy 'running on empty' as recession signals mount - PMI

UK economy 'running on empty' as recession signals mount - PMI

Britain's economy is showing signs of stalling as high inflation hits new orders and businesses report levels of concern that normally herald a recession, a closely watched industry survey showed on Thursday.

S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), covering services and manufacturing firms, also showed companies raising pay and passing higher costs on to clients, a worry for the Bank of England.

The PMI's preliminary composite index held at 53.1 in June, above the median forecast of 52.6 in a Reuters poll of economists and unchanged from May.

But its measure of new orders fell to 50.8, the lowest in over a year. Factory orders dipped below the 50.0 growth threshold to 49.6.

"The economy is starting to look like it is running on empty," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.

"Business confidence has now slumped to a level which has in the past typically signalled an imminent recession," he said, adding that the economy was likely to show a fall in output in the second quarter that could deepen in the third quarter.

Economies around the world are struggling with similar problems and sterling rose against the euro after a similar survey showed a sharp slowdown in business growth in the single currency area, and the pound recovered some of its earlier losses against the U.S. dollar.

Some analysts said the report, while not yet reflecting the full impact of the cost-of-living crisis, provided a bit of hope that a recession might be avoided.

"For now, the survey offers some reason to think the economy could be a little more resilient than we thought," Nicholas Farr, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said.

But others worried about the signs of demand growth petering out and the still high inflation pressures.

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said he continued to expect Britain's economy would shrink in the April-June period, albeit partly due to an additional public holiday.

"We still are content with our forecast for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in Q2 and only a partial recovery in Q3," he wrote in a note to clients.

The PMI's business expectations index fell by 4.6 points in June, the largest monthly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with manufacturers and service providers both reporting their lowest business optimism levels since May 2020.

Separate data showed the limits on finance minister Rishi Sunak for spending more money or cutting taxes to stimulate the economy, as rising inflation-linked debt interest costs pushed the public finances deeper into the red than expected in May.

Inflation is also hitting spending by consumers and figures from the Confederation of British Industry showed retailers - who are not included in the PMI surveys - were feeling the hit this month.

The PMI's measure of job creation was the strongest in three months, in the latest sign of the strength in the labour market.

But employers reported difficulty finding staff and pay levels rose. That helped keep increases in prices charged by firms near two-decade highs.

Companies across the board felt the need to pass on higher energy, fuel and wage costs to customers, S&P Global said.

The BoE is worried that the recent jump in inflation to a 40-year high of 9.1% in May might turn into a permanent problem for the British economy. It said last week it was ready to act "forcefully" if it saw signs of persistent inflation pressures.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
United States Sells Luxury Yacht Amadea, Valued at Approximately $325 Million, in First Sale of a Seized Russian Yacht Since the Invasion of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez announce engagement
Asia-Pacific dominates world’s busiest flight routes, with South Korea’s Jeju–Seoul corridor leading global rankings
Private Welsh island with 19th-century fort listed for sale at over £3 million
Sam Altman challenges Elon Musk with plans for Neuralink rival
Australia to Recognize the State of Palestine at UN Assembly
The Collapse of the Programmer Dream: AI Experts Now the Real High-Earners
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Germany’s Economic Breakdown and the Return of Militarization: From Industrial Collapse to a New Offensive Strategy
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Mediators Edge Closer to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
Germany Seeks Taliban Deal to Deport Afghan Migrants
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
×