Deal Between Saudi Arabia and Israel ‘Virtually Impossible’ This Year, Kingdom Insider Says
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s mid-November US visit aims at defence pact and F-35s while normalisation with Israel hangs in the balance
An influential Saudi commentator close to the kingdom’s leadership has warned that a full normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel this year is “virtually impossible,” citing the need for a “miraculous change” on Israel’s part toward a Palestinian state.
The remarks come ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s planned visit to Washington in mid-November, where he is expected to pursue a defence treaty, stealth-fighter acquisition and cooperation on civilian nuclear technology.
The crown prince’s agenda includes negotiation of a mutual defence agreement with the United States similar to the one recently granted to Qatar, which would grant the U.S. security guarantees in return for Saudi Arabian commitments.
Riyadh also seeks access to the most advanced fighter jet in the U.S. arsenal, the F-35, and a civil-nuclear pact that could underpin its Vision 2030 economic diversification.
Despite recent optimism from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has forecast Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords this year, the Saudi source explained that Riyadh insists on an “irreversible, major step” by Israel toward the creation of a Palestinian state before formal ties can be established.
That condition remains unacceptable to the current Israeli government, which has rejected a two-state solution and is governed by a coalition opposed to significant concessions.
Saudi Arabia has long tied diplomatic recognition of Israel to progress in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, and the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas sharply shifted the regional climate.
Washington’s push for a Saudi-Israeli deal is complicated by Saudi public sentiment, regional dynamics and Saudi Arabia’s broader strategic calculation as a leading state in the Middle East.
As Crown Prince bin Salman travels to the U.S., the defence, nuclear and normalisation tracks remain interconnected.
Riyadh’s ability to secure an upgraded military posture from the United States, including F-35 jets and treaty guarantees, may hinge on progress in Palestinian diplomacy.
With senior U.S. lawmakers warning that any US–Saudi defence deal must include Israeli normalisation, the upcoming visit will test the limits of U.S. influence and regional diplomacy.
Saudi Arabia’s patience appears intact — and so do its longstanding conditions.
The remarks come ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s planned visit to Washington in mid-November, where he is expected to pursue a defence treaty, stealth-fighter acquisition and cooperation on civilian nuclear technology.
The crown prince’s agenda includes negotiation of a mutual defence agreement with the United States similar to the one recently granted to Qatar, which would grant the U.S. security guarantees in return for Saudi Arabian commitments.
Riyadh also seeks access to the most advanced fighter jet in the U.S. arsenal, the F-35, and a civil-nuclear pact that could underpin its Vision 2030 economic diversification.
Despite recent optimism from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has forecast Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords this year, the Saudi source explained that Riyadh insists on an “irreversible, major step” by Israel toward the creation of a Palestinian state before formal ties can be established.
That condition remains unacceptable to the current Israeli government, which has rejected a two-state solution and is governed by a coalition opposed to significant concessions.
Saudi Arabia has long tied diplomatic recognition of Israel to progress in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, and the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas sharply shifted the regional climate.
Washington’s push for a Saudi-Israeli deal is complicated by Saudi public sentiment, regional dynamics and Saudi Arabia’s broader strategic calculation as a leading state in the Middle East.
As Crown Prince bin Salman travels to the U.S., the defence, nuclear and normalisation tracks remain interconnected.
Riyadh’s ability to secure an upgraded military posture from the United States, including F-35 jets and treaty guarantees, may hinge on progress in Palestinian diplomacy.
With senior U.S. lawmakers warning that any US–Saudi defence deal must include Israeli normalisation, the upcoming visit will test the limits of U.S. influence and regional diplomacy.
Saudi Arabia’s patience appears intact — and so do its longstanding conditions.
