Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Wednesday, Aug 05, 2026

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns

The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Yale University's Stephen Roach is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a sharp dollar decline.

Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash.

“The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”

His forecast calls for a 35% drop against other major currencies.

“These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead,” said Roach, a Yale University senior fellow.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index is up more than one percent over the past two weeks and is relatively flat so far this year. But Roach believes it’s no time to get complacent.

“The national savings rate is probably going to go deeper into negative territory than it has ever done for the United States or any leading economy in economic history,” he said.

Roach contends other forces are at play, too.



‘Lethal combination’

“At the same time, America is walking away from globalization and is focused on decoupling itself from the rest of the world,” said Roach. “That’s a lethal combination.”

The big question: Will it happen quickly or gradually?

His timeline is rough — over the next year or two, maybe more. However, Roach suggests a crash virtually inevitable, and it’s a risk investors shouldn’t ignore.

“Generally, it’s a negative implication for U.S. financial assets,” he added. “It points to the probability of higher inflation as we import more higher cost foreign goods from overseas, and that’s a negative for interest rates.”

He’s concerned a crash could spark a late 1970s-type stagflation crisis, when prices rose sharply while economic growth was muted.

According to Roach, not even a leadership change in Washington in November would be able to move the needle much — especially as lawmakers try to battle the economic impact from the coronavirus crisis with unprecedented stimulus measures.

“Policymakers to their credit have never had to deal with anything close to this disruption,” Roach said.
Comments

Oh ya 6 year ago
And many are saying tbis not just him. Have you go a plan? Places with year round warm weather will shine. Hard to grow a garden in the snow. Live in a apartment? well sucks to be you. Buy a fishing rod, build a pantry. Chickens fit in yards very well

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
FIFA’s Retreat Leaves a Larger Question Over Who Guards the Game
Finland Deploys Commercial-Scale Thermal Batteries Using Crushed Rock to Store Renewable Grid Energy
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Arrest Warrant Issued in Lebanon for Tycoon Spotted Meeting Netanyahu in Washington
Trump says Israel ‘would not survive’ without US
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
Pentagon Discloses Nearly 100 US Troop Injuries During Renewed Iran Fighting
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Turkey Explores S-400 Transfer to UAE in Bid to Rejoin F-35 Program
US Retaliates Against Iran After Two American Troops Killed in Jordan
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Iran Claims It Destroyed Bahrain’s Main Artificial Intelligence Center in Missile and Drone Strike
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
China’s Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Narrows the Gap With Anthropic Through Scale, Openness and Lower Cost
The Ledger Will Not Trust on Faith
Passenger Bound for Germany Refused to Sit Beside a Woman on a Plane — Then Slapped a Flight Attendant
Ukraine’s Leadership Rift Spills Into the Streets as Protesters Target Army Chief
The Ten World Cup Finals That Defined Football History
Smartphones Are Getting More Expensive, Sales Are Collapsing, and Even Apple Admits: "Prices Will Rise"
Leadership Change and Strategic Rivalry Redraw the Political Map
The AI Race Enters Its Infrastructure Era
Britain Nationalises British Steel to Protect Scunthorpe Production and Strategic Supply
Thomas Tuchel Faces Fierce Backlash After Tactical Retreat Costs England World Cup Final Berth
A Quiet Bastille Day: France Grapples with World Cup Heartbreak and Leftover Fireworks
Spain in Ecstasy: "We Feel Unbeatable, We Taught the Whole World a Lesson"
Harvard Astrophysicist to Lead U.S. Scientific Advisory on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
Emergency Sirens Activated Across Bahrain as Interior Ministry Issues Shelter Directives
World Cup Visitors Turn American Big-Box Stores Into Souvenir Stops
Netflix Weighs Always-On Channels, Bundles and Short-Form Video
The AI Invoice Shock: Layoffs Didn't Save Managers Money — They Cost Them More
Concern: Sexually Transmitted Bacterium Among Men Develops Antibiotic Resistance
Passenger Partially Pulled Out of Ryanair Jet After Cabin Window Fails Mid-Flight
Severe Heatwave Drives Dangerous Ground-Level Ozone Pollution Across Two Thirds of European Union
The Physical and Electronic Barriers Disrupting Domestic Wireless Networks
France and Morocco Open World Cup Quarter-Finals as Collina Defends Refereeing
Tech Pulse: The Future of AI and Screen Culture
Global News Briefing: Escalating Geopolitical Tensions and Corporate Shakeups
×