Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

Banking confidence, exchange rate are key to Lebanese recovery, says banker

Banking confidence, exchange rate are key to Lebanese recovery, says banker

Central bank governor Riad Salameh has warned banks that cannot increase their capital by 20% by end-February 2021 will have to get out of the market

Lebanon’s short-term priority in addressing its economic crisis should be to enact measures that restore confidence in the banking system and the exchange rate, according to Sarah Hadchiti, a research analyst at Blominvest Bank.

The banking system, paralysed by the worst financial crisis in Lebanon’s history, faces major structural and operational challenges.

Lebanon central bank governor Riad Salameh warned on August 27 that banks that cannot increase their capital by 20 percent by the end of February 2021 will have to get out of the market.

Speaking to Arabian Business, Hadchiti (pictured below) said: "It’s wise to recall that, based on various country experiences, exchange rate crises don’t necessarily lead to banking crises, but all banking crises lead to exchange rate crises.”



Lebanese banks have frozen savers out of their dollar deposits and largely blocked transfers abroad as the country sinks into a financial meltdown on a scale it has never seen.

“The year 2020 proved to be an economic disaster for Lebanon. The country is suffering from a triple whammy – an exchange rate crisis, a banking crisis and a debt crisis – with no end in sight in the near future. And most analysts agree that it was the debt crisis – coupled with a corrupt public sector - that sparked two other crises," Hadchiti said.

“But, surprisingly, the debt crisis has receded in relative significance these days, partly because it’s not as 'sexy or juicy' as the other two, but mostly because domestic debt which constitutes nearly 64 percent of total debt (with total debt reaching $93.5 billion in June) is losing its real value with rising inflation," she added.

She said the foreign currency debt which the government has defaulted on, represents a "real concern especially that almost 50 percent of it is held by foreigners".

Lebanon witnessed another dramatic inflation surge in August as consumer prices rose an annual 120 percent, compared to 112.4 percent in July and just under 90 percent in June, according to new data released by the official Central Administration of Statistics.



At the end of March, inflation was only 16 percent on an annual basis and the exchange rate stood at about LBP2,800 LBP to the US dollar but a severe spiral of exchange rate depreciations saw the exchange rate shoot to LBP8,600 to the US dollar at end-June and fed into an inflation rate of 90 percent year-on-year.

So what caused inflation to rocket and exchange rate depreciations?

“The upshot of the above discussion is that reservations about the health of the banking system and more so the exchange rate regime – coupled with BDL’s policies to contain their implications – are what ignited the rise in cash liquidity and its vicious cycle effects on currency depreciations and inflation. In other words, it wasn’t so much deficit monetisation that did that,” Hadchiti said.

She added: "There are two important conclusions that can be drawn. First, with nearly two thirds of the debt in domestic debt that is losing its real value, the debt crisis is perhaps becoming increasingly less so. That’s not to say that debt shouldn’t be taken seriously: it should, especially when it comes to restructuring foreign debt payments. But what should be taken most seriously are the recurring budget deficits because they reflect a structural problem in Lebanese public finances that has less to do with fiscal matters and more to do with governance matters.

"So, fundamentally, what should underly fiscal reforms in Lebanon are governance reforms that aim at reducing waste, corruption, nepotism, and at increasing efficiency, in public administrations and enterprises.”

"Second, public sector governance reforms take time and are usually medium- to long-term projects. Reform of the banking system should therefore be a short-term priority," Hadchiti concluded.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
United States Sells Luxury Yacht Amadea, Valued at Approximately $325 Million, in First Sale of a Seized Russian Yacht Since the Invasion of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez announce engagement
Asia-Pacific dominates world’s busiest flight routes, with South Korea’s Jeju–Seoul corridor leading global rankings
Private Welsh island with 19th-century fort listed for sale at over £3 million
Sam Altman challenges Elon Musk with plans for Neuralink rival
Australia to Recognize the State of Palestine at UN Assembly
The Collapse of the Programmer Dream: AI Experts Now the Real High-Earners
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Germany’s Economic Breakdown and the Return of Militarization: From Industrial Collapse to a New Offensive Strategy
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Mediators Edge Closer to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
Germany Seeks Taliban Deal to Deport Afghan Migrants
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
×