Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Saturday, Mar 14, 2026

Beware the 'melt-up:' Analysts say stocks may soar just before they collapse

Beware the 'melt-up:' Analysts say stocks may soar just before they collapse

Storm clouds appear to be gathering over Wall Street, with many analysts saying a downturn is inevitable. But before the party winds down, some expect an explosive pre-crash rally — known as a "melt-up."

Melt-ups usually occur without any obvious economic reason for the gains. They happen when investors buy assets based on greed, or fear of missing out, instead of fundamental improvements.

First, some quick context: The past five years have been very, very good for investors. The S&P 500 has grown by nearly 90%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has grown over 140%. That includes two years of a pandemic that shuttered businesses and snarled global supply chains.

Now the market is grappling with the sobering reality that all bull runs end eventually.

Market watchers say that time may be near amid high inflation, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve and geopolitical turmoil. Recently JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of "storm clouds on the horizon," former New York Fed president Bill Dudley said he believes a recession is "inevitable" and the yield curve is inverted — when short-term debt pays out more than long-term debt, considered a sign that a bear market could be ahead.

Yet some analysts are predicting a stock market melt-up, in a rush of irrational buying that sends assets soaring just before the bull market's collapse.

Logically, the market has to reach a top before it falls. But historically, there has been a significant acceleration toward that top in the final months before a crash: In 1928, one year ahead of the Great Depression, the Dow hit new highs before crashing by almost 90%. Before its collapse in March 2000, the Nasdaq grew nearly 200% in the 18 months prior.

Currently, sentiment data shows investors are feeling very bearish about the direction of the market, and that they have been for the past two years — during which the S&P 500 returned 75%.

Analysts, meanwhile, are more bullish on individual stocks than they have been in the past decade. Of all the stock ratings on Wall Street, more than 57% are currently "buy" ratings, the highest percentage since September 2011, according to an analysis by InvestorPlace.

"That tells me all the bad news is discounted in the market right now," said David Hunter, Contrarian Macro Advisors' chief macro strategist. "We're at an inflection point for bonds, stocks, rates and the dollar."

Investors are fearful of the Fed tightening monetary policy, Hunter says, but he thinks that inflation is reaching a peak and the tightening cycle will soon end. A quarter-percentage-point rate hike, he says, is meaningless when stock market and home values are nearly 30% above pre-pandemic levels and unemployment is historically low.

"We believe that, if the yield curve inverts, the data says the stock market will have a massive 'melt-up' over the next two years. We're talking 20% or greater gains," wrote Luke Lango, InvestorPlace senior investment analyst.

Hunter predicts that the next quarter or two will bring huge gains to investors, but the fall will also be significant. As stocks continue to soar, investors risk becoming complacent just as prices take a nosedive.

In the heat of a melt-up, investors may feel a keen sense of FOMO. But when the melt-up inevitably melts down, they may be happy they waited it out.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Output as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Cuts Deep Into Gulf Revenues
Saudi Arabia’s Cultural Scene Presses Ahead as Nation Navigates Regional War
Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Faces Real-World Constraints as Iran War Escalates
Saudi Arabia Offers Two Million Barrels of Crude From Red Sea as War Disrupts Gulf Exports
Formula One Faces Tens of Millions in Lost Revenue if Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Races Are Cancelled
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Middle East War
Saudi Arabia Downs Dozens of Iranian Drones in Major Defensive Operation
Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output by About Twenty Percent as Iran War Disrupts Gulf Energy Flows
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Iran War
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Saudi Arabia Launches Royal Institute of Anthropology to Examine Social Transformation
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Arrives in Saudi Arabia for High-Level Talks
Saudi Aramco Turns to Ukrainian Drone Interceptors to Shield Oil Infrastructure from Iranian Threats
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Rising Iran Conflict Casts Shadow Over Saudi Arabia’s $38 Billion Gaming Industry Ambitions
Iran Launches Missile and Drone Strikes Across Gulf as Oil Prices Surge Past $100
Saudi Air Defences Destroy Three Drones Targeting Strategic Shaybah Oil Field
Debate Grows Over Saudi Arabia’s Role in Sudan War Amid US Alliance Questions
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Travels to Saudi Arabia After Discussions With Iranian Leadership
Two Strategic Pipelines Allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Iran warns of $200 oil as forces target merchant ships in Gulf
Japan to Release 45 Days of Oil Reserves Amid Iran Conflict
Three Commercial Vessels Attacked Near Strait of Hormuz, Thai-Flagged Ship Damaged and Crew Evacuated
Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Set for Record in March as Kingdom Reroutes Crude Amid Hormuz Crisis
Saudi Arabia Seeks Belgian Military Support After Iranian Missile Attacks
Saudi Arabia Welcomes US Decision to Designate Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood as Terrorist Organisation
Saudi Aramco Plans Dual Gulf and Red Sea Export Routes as Iran Crisis Disrupts Oil Shipments
Saudi Cabinet Condemns Iranian Attacks and Reaffirms Kingdom’s Right to Defend Its Sovereignty
Ukraine Deploys Counter-Drone Teams to Gulf States as Iranian Drone Threat Expands
Bahrain Grand Prix Faces Uncertainty as Saudi Arabia Works to Keep Formula One Race on Track
Saudi Arabia Faces New Strategic Dilemma in Yemen as Regional War Reshapes Calculations
OPEC Confirms Saudi-Led Oil Output Increase as Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets
Pakistan Pledges Rapid Support for Saudi Arabia Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
Aramco Warns Global Oil Market Faces ‘Catastrophic’ Shock if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Iran Launches Drone and Missile Attacks Across Gulf Targets Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain
Saudi Arabia Elevates Fahad Al-Saif as Vision 2030 Enters Crucial Implementation Phase
Saudi Aramco Expands Routes to Move Oil Without Reliance on the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Reaffirm Mutual Defense Cooperation Following Iran Strike
Saudi Arabia Plans Major Ukrainian Arms Deal to Counter Iranian Drone Threat
Pentagon Signals Intensification of U.S. Air Campaign as Iran Conflict Escalates
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham Raises Prospect of Mutual Defense Pact With Saudi Arabia Amid Iran Conflict
Why Saudi Arabia Is Unlikely to Have Wanted U.S. Airstrikes on Iran
Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Oil Exports Set to Reach Record High as Gulf Routes Face Disruption
Saudi Arabia Pushes East–West Oil Pipeline Toward Full Capacity as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Flows
Oil Prices Retreat From Peak as G7 Weighs Release of Strategic Reserves
×