Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Thursday, Mar 26, 2026

Beware the 'melt-up:' Analysts say stocks may soar just before they collapse

Beware the 'melt-up:' Analysts say stocks may soar just before they collapse

Storm clouds appear to be gathering over Wall Street, with many analysts saying a downturn is inevitable. But before the party winds down, some expect an explosive pre-crash rally — known as a "melt-up."

Melt-ups usually occur without any obvious economic reason for the gains. They happen when investors buy assets based on greed, or fear of missing out, instead of fundamental improvements.

First, some quick context: The past five years have been very, very good for investors. The S&P 500 has grown by nearly 90%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has grown over 140%. That includes two years of a pandemic that shuttered businesses and snarled global supply chains.

Now the market is grappling with the sobering reality that all bull runs end eventually.

Market watchers say that time may be near amid high inflation, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve and geopolitical turmoil. Recently JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of "storm clouds on the horizon," former New York Fed president Bill Dudley said he believes a recession is "inevitable" and the yield curve is inverted — when short-term debt pays out more than long-term debt, considered a sign that a bear market could be ahead.

Yet some analysts are predicting a stock market melt-up, in a rush of irrational buying that sends assets soaring just before the bull market's collapse.

Logically, the market has to reach a top before it falls. But historically, there has been a significant acceleration toward that top in the final months before a crash: In 1928, one year ahead of the Great Depression, the Dow hit new highs before crashing by almost 90%. Before its collapse in March 2000, the Nasdaq grew nearly 200% in the 18 months prior.

Currently, sentiment data shows investors are feeling very bearish about the direction of the market, and that they have been for the past two years — during which the S&P 500 returned 75%.

Analysts, meanwhile, are more bullish on individual stocks than they have been in the past decade. Of all the stock ratings on Wall Street, more than 57% are currently "buy" ratings, the highest percentage since September 2011, according to an analysis by InvestorPlace.

"That tells me all the bad news is discounted in the market right now," said David Hunter, Contrarian Macro Advisors' chief macro strategist. "We're at an inflection point for bonds, stocks, rates and the dollar."

Investors are fearful of the Fed tightening monetary policy, Hunter says, but he thinks that inflation is reaching a peak and the tightening cycle will soon end. A quarter-percentage-point rate hike, he says, is meaningless when stock market and home values are nearly 30% above pre-pandemic levels and unemployment is historically low.

"We believe that, if the yield curve inverts, the data says the stock market will have a massive 'melt-up' over the next two years. We're talking 20% or greater gains," wrote Luke Lango, InvestorPlace senior investment analyst.

Hunter predicts that the next quarter or two will bring huge gains to investors, but the fall will also be significant. As stocks continue to soar, investors risk becoming complacent just as prices take a nosedive.

In the heat of a melt-up, investors may feel a keen sense of FOMO. But when the melt-up inevitably melts down, they may be happy they waited it out.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Set for Palm Beach Return Following Saudi-Backed Summit in Miami
Saudi Arabia Accelerates Yanbu Oil Exports Toward Five Million Barrel Target
Report Highlights Saudi-US Security Discussions as Trump Administration Evaluates Iran Strategy
Saudi Arabia’s Humain Commits Three Billion Dollars to Elon Musk’s xAI in Strategic Technology Push
Saudi Arabia Signals Firm Shift in Iran Policy, Declares Coexistence No Longer Viable
Saudi Clubs Prepare Major Push to Sign Mohamed Salah Amid Growing Transfer Speculation
Saudi Arabia Rejects Claims It Seeks to Prolong Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Condemns Iranian Actions and Signals Firm Shift Toward Stronger Response
Saudi Arabia Reassesses Strategic Approach as Regional Tensions with Iran Intensify
Pakistan Reaffirms Strong Support for Saudi Arabia Following High-Level Visit
Saudi Arabia Expands Regional Trade Links by Opening New Land and Sea Routes to UAE
World Economic Forum Delays Saudi Conference as Regional Conflict Disrupts Global Agenda
Saudi Arabia and UAE Signal Potential Entry into Iran Conflict if Critical Infrastructure Is Targeted
Global Firms Accelerate Expansion into Saudi Arabia as Economic Reforms Gain Momentum
Global Labour Pressure Mounts as ILO Faces Calls to Reject Saudi Bid to Dismiss Migrant Worker Complaint
Gulf Powers Move Closer to Entering Iran Conflict as Regional Pressure Intensifies
Saudi Arabia Breaks Ranks with Regional Allies Over Response to Iran Escalation
Saudi Arabia Moves Closer to Direct Role as Iran Conflict Intensifies
World Economic Forum Postpones Jeddah Meeting Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Trump to Deliver Keynote Address at Saudi-Backed Investment Summit in Miami Beach
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Press Ahead With Energy Agreements Despite Regional Conflict
Can Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port Replace Hormuz? Capacity Limits Test Critical Oil Lifeline
Saudi Arabia Detects Ballistic Missiles as Regional Tensions Escalate in Gulf
Saudi Aramco Reduces Oil Shipments to Asia for Second Consecutive Month
Saudi Aramco Reduces Oil Shipments to Asia for Second Consecutive Month
Saudi Arabia and UAE Push Ahead With Major Deals Despite Iran-Related Uncertainty
Formula One Cancels Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Pakistan Signals Strategic Realignment Toward Saudi Arabia Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Shipments to Asia as Regional Conflict Disrupts Key Export Routes
Saudi Arabia Moves to Contain Regional Escalation as Houthis Signal Readiness to Join Conflict
Saudi Arabia Signals Independent Nuclear Strategy Unaffected by Iran Tensions
Saudi Arabia Signals Independent Nuclear Strategy Unaffected by Iran Tensions
Egypt Reaffirms Strong Support for Saudi Arabia as Sisi Condemns Iran’s Gulf Attacks
Saudi Stocks Close Higher as Tadawul Index Gains 0.55% on Broad Sector Strength
Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles Toward Riyadh as Gulf Conflict Intensifies
Barcelona Midfielder Marc Casadó Attracts €40 Million Interest from Saudi Clubs
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise as Saudi Arabia Opens Key Air Base to US Forces
Saudi Arabia Confronts Strategic Turning Point as Iran Conflict Redefines Regional Alliances
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missile as Two Others Land in Remote Area Without Casualties
Saudi Expulsion of Iranian Military Attaché Raises Doubts Over Fragile Riyadh–Tehran Rapprochement
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic East–West Pipeline Gains Global Attention as Energy Routes Face Growing Risks
Iran Reportedly Reduces Strikes on Saudi Arabia Amid Concerns Over Strong Retaliation
Saudi Arabia Criticises Israeli Strikes in Southern Syria Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Egypt and Saudi Arabia Warn Iran’s Actions Threaten Stability Across the Gulf
Egypt and Saudi Arabia Warn Iran’s Actions Threaten Stability Across the Gulf
Saudi Arabia Unveils Comprehensive 2026 Roadmap to Streamline Company Formation
Saudi-UAE Tensions Reveal Emerging Rivalry at the Heart of Gulf Power Dynamics
Saudi Arabia Launches Gulf Maritime Support Initiative to Safeguard Shipping
Saudi Arabia Expands US Military Access as UAE Braces for Prolonged Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia Expels Iranian Diplomats Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
×