The specter of a boycott hangs over the Iranian legislative elections, as the authorities have called upon more than 61 million Iranians to head to the polls on Friday to elect a new parliament and Assembly of Experts, in a vote expected to consolidate the conservatives’ grip on power in the absence of a real challenger.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be the first to cast his ballot at 8:00 a.m. Tehran time at one of the 59,000 polling stations scattered across Iran, especially in schools and mosques, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

According to the Ministry of the Interior, about 61 million Iranians out of a population of 85 million are eligible to vote, nearly half of them women in schools and mosques.

Experts predict a very high boycott rate, exceeding 50 percent. These are the first elections since massive protests shook the country a year and a half ago following the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, while detained by the morality police for improper hijab use.

The elections come amid widespread public discontent due to the worsening living crisis, with continued U.S. sanctions following the previous administration's withdrawal from the nuclear deal under Donald Trump. The diplomatic process aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement has been stalled, months after the government of Ebrahim Raisi took office, coinciding with the breakout of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Hours before the end of the election campaign, Khamenei reiterated the "crux" of his speeches over the past year, focusing on increasing election participation. He urged Iranians to vote in large numbers, stating, "Everyone must participate in the elections," emphasizing that "strong and enthusiastic elections are one of the pillars of proper country management."

Khamenei gave his final pre-election speech today to three thousand young men and women, gathered in Tehran from different parts of the country, in trips organized by the Basij forces affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards. The state television described these as first-time election participants.

Khamenei insisted on the importance of sending a message abroad through local elections, saying, "If we can show the world that the people are present in the country's critical and decisive events, then we have saved the country and propelled it forward."

In the same vein, the ultimate decision-maker added, "International political observers fear the people's presence more than anything because they have seen its power. There are countries in the world closely monitoring Iran's issues the Americans, the dominant politics in Europe, the Zionist policies, the policies of capitalists, and major corporations in the world these policies are directed towards Iran," as reported by Iranian state media.

AFP quoted Khamenei saying, "Iran's enemies are closely watching the Iranian people's presence in the electoral arena."

The elections are taking place amidst regional tensions due to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas since October 7th in the Gaza Strip.

Khamenei indirectly referred to boycott campaigns, stating, "There is no benefit in not voting." He added, "Some inside the country don't care about elections, but we must remind everyone that we should look at the elections from the perspective of national interests, not partisan or group interests."

Khamenei stated, "If the elections are weak, then everyone will be harmed," repeating what he said before the 2020 elections: "Those who love Iran, its people, and its security should know if the elections are weak, no one wins, and everyone will be harmed."

He further urged, "My words are not directed at those who cannot participate in the elections for any reason, but those who express their unwillingness and encourage others not to attend, they should think more," adding, "Not voting will not bring about any result or fruit, and will not solve any problem in the country."

"If the elections are strong, then the elected will also be strong, If our presence in the elections is strong, then a strong parliament will do great work and take big steps," he said.

In his final speeches, Khamenei focused on the elections and urged "influential figures" to "encourage" citizens to vote.

"Frosty Atmosphere"

The 2020 legislative elections witnessed the lowest turnout since the proclamation of the Islamic Republic in 1979; only 42.57 percent of voters cast their ballots in the vote held 24 hours after the announcement of the first two cases of COVID-19.

Those elections saw boycott campaigns in the wake of the 2017 and 2019 protests, as well as the Ukrainan plane shot down by two Revolutionary Guard missiles south of Tehran, killing 176 people, most of them Iranian, just weeks before the elections.

The reformist newspaper Hem Mihan noted on Tuesday that "the political climate remains frosty," comparing the political atmosphere to the cold wave and snow that recently swept through parts of Iran.

The Revolutionary Guards-associated paper, Watan-e Emrooz, praised "the people's interest in the campaign," especially in rural areas.

In Tehran, where participation in 2020 was just over 25 percent, the number of candidates' banners is lower than in previous campaigns.

The capital was one of the epicenters of the widespread protest movement that rocked the country after the death of the young lady, Mahsa Amini, in September 2022, days after her arrest by the Morality Police for not adhering to the strict dress codes in the Islamic Republic.

"Living Crisis"

The elections also come amid increasing disillusionment in Iran regarding the cost of living and an inflation rate nearing 50 percent, along with government inefficiency.

Mohsen Amidbakhsh, an employee in his forties, told an AFP correspondent near Tehran's grand bazaar, "People's pockets are empty," adding, "I don't think the upcoming parliament will be able to change this situation."

Iranians elect 290 parliament members for a four-year term in a single-round vote.

They also choose members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 influential clerics elected for 8-year terms by direct universal suffrage, supposedly tasked with naming the current leader's successor if he is unable to perform his duties. The constitution also empowers them to supervise the leader's performance and the possibility of dismissing him powers many believe to be inoperative.

The Guardian Council approved a record number of 15,200 candidates for the legislative elections, rejecting more than 30,000 others.

The council refused former moderate President Hassan Rouhani's (2013-2021) request to run for the Assembly of Experts, despite being a member for 24 years.

Former reformist leader President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) lamented that Iran is "very far from free and competitive elections."

However, the former presidents did not call for an election boycott, unlike calls from inside and outside the country who see any participation as a compromise with a power that refuses to carry out radical reforms.

The Reform Front, the main coalition of reformist parties, declared its absence from "these meaningless elections, unproductive in managing the country," as candidates in some provincial constituencies claimed themselves to be reformists.

The elections are expected to confirm the retreat of the reformist and moderate camp after being marginalized by conservatives and hardliners who have held all powers since Ebrahim Raisi was elected president in 2021.

The election results will reveal the size of the different currents within the conservative camp, both in parliament and the Assembly of Experts, as the possibility of the current Supreme Leader's succession arises, who will turn 85 in April.

More than 275 Iranian activists, including former officials and deputies, called this week for an election boycott, describing it as a "spectacle" and accusing the authority of "engineering the elections" and presenting a "deceptive scene" for the electoral process.

Nobel Peace laureate activist Narges Mohammadi, last year, called for a boycott of the "show elections," and said in a statement from her cell in Evin prison that the boycott is "an obligation not only from a political standpoint but also from an ethical one."