Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Tuesday, Mar 17, 2026

Concerns grow as Saudi Aramco delays projects, racks up debt

Concerns grow as Saudi Aramco delays projects, racks up debt

Prior to IPO, the government has previously leveraged Aramco's balance sheet to bolster its own finances

The world’s biggest oil company is getting squeezed by its main shareholder, the Saudi Arabian government.

Even with crude dropping to $40 a barrel this week and its cash flow plunging, Saudi Aramco is trying to pay a $75 billion dividend this year, almost all of it to the state. Concerns are mounting, including among global fund managers who bought into the company during a record initial public offering last December, that Aramco is putting strategic projects on ice and racking up debt too quickly.

Aramco has been the country’s cash cow for decades. But the pressure it faces has been thrown into sharper relief by the coronavirus-induced collapse in energy demand - Brent crude fell another 5 percent on Tuesday - and now that it’s a listed firm with shareholders from New York to Tokyo.


Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 35-year-old de facto ruler, has pledged to diversify the kingdom from oil and spend billions developing everything from futuristic cities to tourism and financial services. For that, he needs Aramco’s money.

“The crown prince has basically decided the company is a piggy bank he can raid to fund his other projects,” said Jean-Francois Seznec, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council of Washington’s Global Energy Center, and a Middle Eastern specialist. “It will limit how much they can invest in things like maintaining the oil fields and developing new technologies.”

The government has previously leveraged Aramco’s balance sheet to bolster its own finances. But it hasn’t happened to this extent for at least 20 years, according to one banker who’s worked with the company since the 1990s.

Fitch Ratings Ltd. estimates the Saudi budget deficit will rise to 15 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, one of the widest levels in the Middle East. Revenue fell almost 50 percent year-on-year in the second quarter.

Aramco promised to pay $75 billion annually to investors for five years after the IPO. Eager to attract foreign funds and achieve a world record valuation of $2 trillion, the government even said back then it may forgo its own portion of the dividend and maintain it for others if oil prices fell.

Instead, the axe is falling elsewhere. Aramco has slashed capital expenditure by tens of billions of dollars, laid off hundreds of mainly foreign workers and shuffled its top management as part of a plan to sell some assets.

It paid a dividend of $37.5 billion in the first six months of 2020 even as rivals Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Eni cut theirs. The payouts were almost double Aramco’s free cash flow of $21 billion.

The dividends - and a $69 billion acquisition of chemicals maker Sabic from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund - have bloated the company’s debt levels, though they are still below those of most Big Oil firms. The gearing ratio climbed from -5 percent at the end of March, meaning Aramco had more cash than debt, to 20 percent in June, above its target of 5 percent to 15 percent.


Gearing could reach 30% by 2023 if crude prices remain below $60 a barrel and Aramco doesn’t reduce the dividend, according to David Havens, head of energy equity research at SMBC Nikko Securities America.

The market doubts oil will rise to that level anytime soon. Brent crude will average just $47.50 next year and $53 in 2022, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Aramco “has the lowest upstream costs of any major energy company,” a spokesperson said in a statement. “This provides a level of flexibility in our capital spending plans during this downturn, supporting our ability to maintain dividends.”

The Saudi government’s Center for International Communication, which fields inquiries from foreign media, did not respond to requests for comment.

Executives have shelved several major projects in recent months, including a $20 billion Red Sea facility to turn crude into chemicals and a liquefied natural gas export terminal in Texas. A $10 billion refinery in China has also been put on hold, Bloomberg reported, though Aramco said it’s still committed to investing in the world’s second-largest economy.

Aramco had hatched these plans to gain additional outlets for its crude and weather the global energy transition to cleaner fuels such as gas.

Aramco’s come through the oil crisis better than its peers so far. Its second-quarter profit of $6.6 billion may have been down 73 percent from a year earlier, but it was easily the highest of any energy firm. BP lost $6.7 billion and Exxon Mobil $1.1 billion.

The Saudi company’s share price has gained 2 percent in Riyadh this year, in large part because of the dividend pledge. Shell’s has slumped 54 percent and BP’s 45 percent.

The crown prince’s desire to get money out of Aramco may only increase, however. Since Chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan said earlier this year he wanted to sell some assets, the economy has worsened. The government has been forced to raise taxes and reduce public workers’ allowances.

Aramco is already looking at selling a stake in its oil pipelines to raise around $10 billion, Bloomberg reported in April.

Prince Mohammed and the government “really need Aramco to help the kingdom overcome Covid-19 and transition to a post-oil era,” said Neil Quilliam, head of Azure Strategy, an advisory firm focused on the Middle East. “In the process, they will likely damage the country’s most profitable company.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Arabia Targets South African Professionals in New Recruitment Drive Amid Regional Uncertainty
Formula One Faces Major Financial Hit as Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Cancelled Amid Middle East Conflict
U.S. and Saudi Firms Launch Local Production of Attritable Drone Systems in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia and UAE Warn Rising Gulf Tensions Could Endanger Regional Security
Saudi Arabia Rejects Claims It Encouraged Prolonged War With Iran
Saudi Arabia to Host World’s Largest Single-Cell Protein Plant as Food Security Push Accelerates
Saudi Crown Prince Urges Trump to Continue Military Pressure on Iran
Iran Intensifies Drone Campaign Against Saudi Arabia as Gulf Conflict Escalates
When Is Eid al-Fitr 2026? Saudi Arabia Awaits Moon Sighting to Confirm End of Ramadan
When Is Eid al-Fitr 2026? Saudi Arabia Awaits Moon Sighting to Confirm End of Ramadan
Iranian Missile Strike Damages Five U.S. Refueling Aircraft at Saudi Air Base
Iranian Missile Strike Damages Five U.S. Refueling Aircraft at Saudi Air Base
Washington State Pilot Among Six U.S. Airmen Killed in Military Aircraft Crash Over Iraq
Severe Storm Threat Looms Over Washington as Tornado Risk and Damaging Winds Target Mid-Atlantic
Trump Supports FCC Warning to Broadcasters Over Iran War Reporting
Trump Supports FCC Warning to Broadcasters Over Iran War Reporting
Saudi Stocks Edge Lower as Tadawul All Share Index Slips Slightly at Market Close
Iranian Missile and Drone Strike Targets Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base Hosting US Aircraft
Saudi Air Defenses Intercept Drone Over Eastern Province as Iranian Strike Campaign Intensifies
Middle East War Reshapes Gulf Economies as Saudi Arabia and Oman Gain Strategic Leverage While UAE Faces Economic Shock
Iranian Ambassador in Riyadh Blames ‘Enemies’ for Attacks Across the Gulf
Israeli Envoy Ron Dermer Reportedly Visits Saudi Arabia for Discussions on Potential Lebanon Talks
Formula One Cancels Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Scheduled for April
Iran’s Ambassador in Riyadh Rejects Claims Tehran Targeted Saudi Oil Facilities
Saudi Arabia Declares 2026 ‘Year of Artificial Intelligence’ in Major Push for Data-Driven Economy
Saudi Arabia’s 2018 Budget Signals Strong Push for Non-Oil Economic Growth
Pakistan Envoy in Riyadh Says Regional Diplomacy Intensifying to Prevent Wider Middle East War
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Dozens of Drones as Regional Strikes Kill Two in Oman
Saudi Arabia Redirects Oil Exports to Red Sea Ports as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missile and Drone Barrage as Regional Conflict Intensifies
Iran Expands Drone and Missile Campaign Across Gulf as Conflict With US and Israel Intensifies
Muslims Worldwide Await Saudi Moon Sighting to Confirm Eid al-Fitr 2026 Date
F1 Calendar Faces Major Disruption as Middle East Conflict Threatens Bahrain and Saudi Races
Trump Says Most US Aircraft Hit in Saudi Base Attack Suffered Minimal Damage
Trump Says Most US Aircraft Hit in Saudi Base Attack Suffered Minimal Damage
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Output as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Cuts Deep Into Gulf Revenues
Saudi Arabia’s Cultural Scene Presses Ahead as Nation Navigates Regional War
Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Faces Real-World Constraints as Iran War Escalates
Saudi Arabia Offers Two Million Barrels of Crude From Red Sea as War Disrupts Gulf Exports
Formula One Faces Tens of Millions in Lost Revenue if Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Races Are Cancelled
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Middle East War
Saudi Arabia Downs Dozens of Iranian Drones in Major Defensive Operation
Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output by About Twenty Percent as Iran War Disrupts Gulf Energy Flows
Formula One Set to Cancel Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Amid Escalating Iran War
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Saudi Arabia Launches Royal Institute of Anthropology to Examine Social Transformation
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Arrives in Saudi Arabia for High-Level Talks
×