Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Mar 01, 2026

Coronavirus: How Iran is battling a surge in cases

Coronavirus: How Iran is battling a surge in cases

Iran has seen a significant surge in the number of coronavirus infections, and the official death toll has now gone above 20,000.

Cases spiked in mid-May and have remained high despite a re-imposition of some restrictions on movement.

The severity of the outbreak has been difficult to evaluate and there are concerns that the situation has been significantly worse than the government has revealed.

What do we know about the numbers in Iran?


Published data on new cases suggests that following a second peak at the start of June, the reported number of new cases has remained persistently high at well over 2,000 per day.



However, this may well be a significant underestimate, judging by documents which indicate that Iran has been withholding the true scale of the outbreak.

These documents - obtained by the BBC and believed to be unpublished Iranian official records - suggest a much higher death toll.

According to these figures, the pandemic could have killed as many as 42,000 Iranians by 21 July compared with some 14,000 deaths reported by the Health Ministry by that date.



Why have cases been rising?


In April, Iran began to ease its restrictions as daily infections fell:

* 20 April: Shopping malls and bazaars reopened and travel resumed between different provinces
* 22 April: Public parks and recreation areas reopened
* 12 May: Government allowed all mosques to reopen
* 25 May: Major Shia religious shrines reopened
* 26 May: Restaurants, cafes, museums and historical sites reopened

City transport systems across Iran, as well as banks and offices, have been packed with people.

The epidemic was initially concentrated in Qom and the capital, Tehran. But in the beginning of August, a flare-up was reported in the south-west, notably in Khuzestan province which borders Iraq.

Officials have suggested the renewed surge in new cases could be down to more testing, and President Hassan Rouhani has said this means you will find more cases.

Iran's chief epidemiologist at the country's health ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, explained: "The main reason for the rising numbers is that we have started identifying [infected people] who have no or mild symptoms."

Iran increased its testing in June, and has tested about 31 people in every 100,000 people since then, considerably more than it did at the start of the pandemic.

But that's still less than the US or countries in Europe that have been hit by the virus.

The proportion of tests in Iran that return a positive result began to rise in late May and early June, reaching 14%. Since then it's stayed between nine and 10%.

That's about ten tests for each positive case.

The WHO has suggested at least 10 and as many as 30 tests per positive case is a good general benchmark for adequate testing, according to Our World in Data, which compiles coronavirus testing statistics.

That means that at the moment, Iran may not be doing quite enough testing to find all cases.


What steps have the authorities taken?


Health Minister Saeed Namaki said people were ignoring social distancing rules.


Officials have complained Iranians are not observing social distancing


"People have become completely careless regarding this disease," he told the Iranian news agency.

And a health ministry poll in June suggested only:

* 40% of the population were keeping the social-distancing rules, down from 90% earlier in the outbreak
* 32% were following the rules on self-isolation, down from 86%

During the initial outbreak, the Iranian authorities were criticised for their hesitation in closing down mosques and key religious sites, and for not moving quicker to introduce restrictions.

The leadership in Iran cannot afford to continue restrictions because of the state of the economy, according to BBC Persian's Rana Rahimpour.

She adds that it faces multiple challenges such as US sanctions, corruption and mismanagement.

President Rouhani has told Iranians they must wear face masks on public transport and in crowded areas, and said where necessary, the police and security forces will enforce the rules.


Muharram is an important event in the Iranian calendar


And Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for action to stop the rising level of infections, and criticised those who don't wear face masks.

In July, the authorities in the capital, Tehran, announced restrictions were being temporarily re-imposed on some businesses and public gatherings, including wedding halls, coffee shops, tea houses, amusement parks and zoos.

With the holy month of Muharram starting on 20 August, the health ministry has prohibited any gatherings indoors.

"The slightest negligence will lead to a spike," Health Minister Alireza Raisi has said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Emerging Saudi–Turkish Alignment Draws Attention as Potential Strategic Challenge for Israel
Saudi Arabia Unveils $100 Billion Technology Investment Fund to Accelerate Post-Oil Diversification
Saudi Arabia Reaffirms Firm Commitment to Two-State Solution in Renewed Diplomatic Push
Saudi Arabia Launches Central Kitchen in Gaza to Deliver 24,000 Meals a Day
Saudi Arabia Announces $346 Million Support Package for Yemen in Renewed Humanitarian Push
Saudi Investors Increase US Equity Exposure Amid Domestic Market Weakness
Saudi Arabia Unveils Major Desert Gas Development in Strategic Shift Toward Diversified Energy Growth
Satellite Images Indicate Increased Aircraft Presence at Saudi Airbase Hosting US Forces
Telephone Diplomacy Sparks Tensions Between Two Key US Allies After Trump Intervention
Asian LPG Prices Surge After Damage Forces Saudi Aramco Export Disruptions
Saudi Arabia Unveils $100 Billion AI Infrastructure Fund to Challenge US and China
Saudi Stocks Close Lower as Tadawul All Share Index Falls 1.28 Percent
Saudi Arabia Launches Smart Mapping System to Enhance Pilgrim Experience at Holy Sites
Cristiano Ronaldo Acquires 25 Percent Stake in Saudi-Owned Spanish Club Almería
U.S.–Saudi Relations Balance Transactional Deal-Making with Expanding Strategic Ambitions
Israel’s President Herzog Signals Cautious Message on Saudi Ties at UAE Iftar in Tel Aviv
United States and Saudi Arabia Strengthen Security Ties with Joint Explosive Ordnance Disposal Exercise
Saudi Arabia Responds to Israel–UAE Moves in Somalia as Regional Rivalries Intensify
Saudi Arabia Showcases Expanding Defense Ambitions at World Defense Show 2026
SECRETARY RUBIO on IRAN: Iran poses a very great threat to the United States, and has for a very long time.
Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is resigning from Harvard University as fallout continues over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining about six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 adding eight-tenths of a percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing roughly one-and-a-quarter percent.
Nvidia posted better than expected results for the January quarter on Wednesday and forecast current quarter revenue above market estimates.
Saudi Arabia’s Coffee Renaissance Gains Momentum as Investment and Heritage Drive Industry Growth
Saudi Shipping Leader Bahri Expands Fleet as Tanker Rates Approach $200,000 a Day
Saudi Arabia Advances First National Urban Policy Through High-Level Leadership and Institutional Alliances
Major Life Sciences Summits to Spotlight Saudi Arabia’s Rise as Regional Biotech and Pharma Hub
Saudi Arabia Reframes Red Sea and Horn of Africa Strategy Amid Rising Security and Trade Stakes
Saudi Arabia Recalibrates Its Role in Shifting Regional and Global Power Dynamics
Saudi Retail Signals to Global Brands: Localise or Lose Ground in a Rapidly Evolving Market
Saudi Arabia Looks to Human Capital Investment to Unlock Demographic Dividend
Saudi Arabia and Iran Increase Oil Exports Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Saudi Data Protection Authority Intensifies Enforcement Under Personal Data Law
Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Output and Exports Amid Contingency Planning Over Iran Tensions
USS Gerald R Ford Arrives in Souda, Crete
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Unit Expands Push Into Global Private Credit
Saudi Arabia Eases Headquarters Rules to Attract More Foreign Firms
Saipem Secures Major Offshore Pipeline Contract in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s Targeted Oil Export Cuts to the US Seen as Strategic Signal Amid Global Supply Glut
Nemetschek Arabia Signs Strategic MoU with Saudi Facility Management Association
Gulf Markets Close Mixed as Saudi Shares Slip on Budget Deficit Concerns
Saudi Arabia Posts Largest Quarterly Budget Deficit in Years Amid Weaker Oil Revenues and Higher Spending
U.S. Lawmaker Urges Safeguards on Saudi Civil Nuclear Deal as Trump Administration Advances Agreement
Saudi Arabia and Gulf Allies Rally Behind Kuwait in Escalating Maritime Border Dispute with Iraq
Universal Aviation Secures License to Operate and Manage New General Aviation Terminal in Dammam
Tucker Carlson’s Saudi Arabia Remarks Spark Debate Over Israel Stance
GCC Secretary-General Holds Talks with EU Ambassador in Riyadh
Gulf States’ AI Investment Drive Seen as Strategic Bet on Technology and U.S. Security Ties
African Union Commission Chair Meets Saudi Vice Foreign Minister to Deepen Strategic Cooperation
President El-Sisi Holds Strategic Talks with Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh
×