Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2026

How Silicon Valley Bank chaos has had a bearing on us all - and why we're in for a bumpy few months

How Silicon Valley Bank chaos has had a bearing on us all - and why we're in for a bumpy few months

If inflation does stay a lot higher than the central banks expect, then we could be in for a more turbulent time. And how worried should we be about that? The next few months will tell, but for the time being there's good and bad news.
Tempting as it is to believe that the chaos with Silicon Valley Bank and its British arm are of interest only to members of the tech community and financial nerds, it has already had a very real bearing on all our lives.

For evidence, look no further than the money markets, where investors bet on the future path of interest rates.

Up until last Friday, they were expecting UK interest rates to peak at around 4.75% - possibly even a little bit higher.

But the shock of the bank collapse caused a sudden reappraisal. By Monday evening, they were pricing in a peak of only 4.25% - a very big fall by the scheme of these things. It was a similar story in the US, where the expected peak for rates dropped by around half a percentage point.

Why are these two stories - interest rates and an obscure bank collapse - colliding?

In large part it's because they were always intertwined - not that anyone paid much attention before last week.

Part of the reason Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) suffered its demise was because over the past 18 months rising interest rates had caused a sharp fall in the value of bonds held by the bank.

It was, in large part, those losses and the impact on SVB's balance sheet that prompted depositors to run from the bank late last week (which in turn triggered the UK branch's collapse).

In other words, one of the consequences of SVB's implosion is that the Federal Reserve and Bank of England might become a little more wary of raising interest rates in future.

Everyone knew there were unexploded bombs in the financial system which would begin to explode when money got more expensive; the fear now is that there may be more explosions to come.

This isn't the only explanation for why rate expectations have come down. There's also the fact that the chaos at SVB, Signature bank (which also failed) and across much of the US banking system might dampen economic growth or even precipitate a recession.

And, for the most part, central banks tend to cut rates rather than raise them in the face of a recession. And we were already getting close to the potential peak in borrowing costs.

Even so, this interplay between an extremely nervous financial system and interest rates is a big part of the story.

Which brings us to some of the consequences.

'Things could get pretty gritty'

Let's assume the Fed and the Bank of England are indeed going to allow interest rates to peak at a lower rate than previously expected.

Does that mean that we have to expect higher inflation in future? What if inflation turns out to be considerably more sticky than most central banks expect (they mostly think it'll come down pretty quickly)?

The short answer is that things could get pretty gritty: the Bank of England is duty bound to try to keep inflation low and to try to keep the financial system stable, but among the many things illustrated by the SVB episode is that those two objectives can sometimes clash with each other.

In this case, higher interest rates (to fight inflation) contributed to financial instability. Yes, there was lots else going on besides - there's a strong case to say the Fed wasn't doing enough to monitor the risk posed by unusual banks like SVB - but the rising cost of money is a big part of the story.

There's good news and bad news

If inflation does stay a lot higher than the central banks expect, then we could be in for a more turbulent time.

And how worried should we be about that? The next few months will tell, but for the time being there's good and bad news.

The good is that the headline consumer price index in both the UK and US seems to have been faring more or less as the central banks expected - gradually coming down. Earlier today, the US CPI came in at an annual rate of 6% - bang in line with expectations.

The bad news is that when you look beneath the surface, there are some hints that inflation could prove more stubborn than expected.

In particular, core inflation - the behaviour of prices once you strip out volatile items like energy and food - is still building, especially when you ignore housing costs. That suggests there's still upwards pressure on prices.

And sure enough, immediately after the release of those numbers, interest rate expectations rose a little, both in the UK and US.

Now, UK rates are expected to peak not at 4.25% but 4.4% (which in practical terms means a fair few people - though not everyone - expect 4.5% rates).

In short, we're in for a bumpy few months.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Strategic Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Security Concerns as Trump Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Keeps Red Sea Oil Exports Flowing Despite Regional Tensions
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
Saudi Business Leader Abudawood Appointed Chairman of Merit Incentives Group
TotalEnergies Confirms Damage at Saudi Refinery Following Security Incident
Saudi Arabia Launches Early Construction Phase for King Salman Stadium Project
Saudi Shift Away from Longstanding Dollar Oil Framework Gains Attention Amid Iran Conflict
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Resolve Long-Running Transit Visa Dispute
Saudi Oil Capacity and Pipeline Flows Reduced as Supply Risks Intensify
TotalEnergies Reports Damage to Saudi SATORP Refinery Following Security Incidents
Gulf States Assess Prospects of U.S.-Iran Truce as Regional Stability Efforts Intensify
South Korea Resumes Honey Exports to Saudi Arabia Following Sanitary Approval
Saudi Arabia Carries Out Sentences in Eastern Province Following Security Convictions
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Backs King Street’s Regional Credit Strategy
Saudi Arabia Secures World Cup Return as Egypt Celebrates Landmark Qualification
Iran and Saudi Arabia Intensify Diplomatic Engagement Amid Regional Tensions
Russia and Saudi Arabia Open Visa-Free Travel Corridor for Citizens
Saudi Oil Output Capacity Reduced by 600,000 Barrels Per Day Amid Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Suspends Operations at Select Energy Sites as Precautionary Measure
Saudi Arabia Halts Operations at Multiple Energy Facilities Amid Heightened Tensions
Global Markets Jolt as Iran Signals Ceasefire Breakdown and Rising Regional Tensions
King Street Aligns with Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund to Expand Alternative Investments in Middle East
Attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Hub Raises Global Supply Concerns
Debate Emerges Over Saudi Strategic Decisions as Gulf Cooperation Council Dynamics Come Into Focus
Saudi Arabia Expands Full Workforce Localisation to 69 Professions in Major Labour Reform
Emerging Alliance of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia Signals New Regional Power Dynamic Amid Iran Conflict
Iran Linked to Strikes Across Gulf States Following Refinery Attack Escalation
Saudi Arabia Voices Concern Over Fragile US–Iran Ceasefire Stability
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
Saudi Arabia’s Key East-West Oil Pipeline Targeted Following Ceasefire Announcement
Iran Targets Saudi Arabia’s East-West Oil Pipeline in Escalating Regional Tensions
Trump Warns of Civilizational Stakes as Iran Halts Negotiations
Saudi Companies Expand Remote Work Measures Ahead of Iran-Related Security Concerns
Iran Warns of Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure if US Targets Its Facilities
Iran Urges Civilians to Form Human Shields Around Nuclear Sites as Diplomatic Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices to Record Premiums Amid Supply Pressures Linked to Iran Conflict
Key Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Heightened Security Concerns Linked to Iran
Formula One Calendar Gap Explained as Fans Await Next Grand Prix
Growing Strain on the Petrodollar System Comes Into Focus Amid Iran Conflict
Reported Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Complex Raises Global Energy Supply Concerns
FedEx Introduces New Digital Tool to Streamline Imports into Saudi Arabia
Iran Claims Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Complex Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Taiwan to Source Oil Shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Ports
Saudi Arabia Evacuates Riyadh Financial District as Precaution Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia Balances Ambitious Economic Vision Amid Regional Tensions and Financial Pressures
Budget Saudi Arabia Reports Strong Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance
Saudi Arabia Expands Investment in Capcom With Stake Reaching Six Percent
Saudi Arabia Assesses Significant Economic Impact From Regional Conflict Involving Iran
US Beef Secures Expanded Market Access in Saudi Arabia
Jordan and Saudi Arabia Declare Absolute Solidarity in Response to Iranian Threats
×