Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Friday, Jan 16, 2026

Inflation is so hot the Fed may have to hike interest rates like it's 1994

Inflation is so hot the Fed may have to hike interest rates like it's 1994

Inflation is so hot that Wall Street banks are falling over each other to predict the dramatic moves the Federal Reserve will have to make to cool prices off.

Goldman Sachs raised eyebrows earlier this week by forecasting the Fed will raise interest rates by a half a percentage point in each of the next two meetings.

Morgan Stanley and Jefferies quickly endorsed that view, even though the Fed hasn't done a rate hike of that size at a single meeting since 2000.

Now, Citigroup is upping the ante. Citi economists said Friday they expect the Fed will boost interest rates by a half a percentage point during each of the next four meetings. And Citi left the door open for even more aggressive steps, such as big rate hikes at every remaining meeting this year.

The aggressive call underscores the level of concern about the inflation outlook, which has darkened considerably in recent weeks because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing spike in food, energy and other commodity prices.

"With inflation likely to be very strong in March...and to remain elevated in April, we think it will be hard for Fed officials to argue why they would not raise 50 [basis points]," Citi economists wrote, referring to basis points.

Citi warned that if inflation "unexpectedly accelerates" or long-term inflation expectations rise "rapidly," it's possible the Fed will hike rates by more than half a percentage point in a meeting.

1994 bond market meltdown


Normally, the Fed raises rates gradually, moving in quarter-point increments. But with consumer prices surging at the fastest pace in 40 years, these are not normal times.

Keep in mind that just a year ago, Fed officials indicated they saw no interest rate increases until at least 2024. Now, investors are bracing for six more rate hikes just this year.

The last time the Fed raised interest rates by half a percentage point or more in four straight meetings was late 1994-early 1995. That series of aggressive rate hikes helped set off chaos in financial markets, with bond markets melting down and hedge funds collapsing. Months later, the Fed was forced to reverse course and cut interest rates.

'There is an obvious need'


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled this week that officials are prepared to step up their belated fight against inflation.

"There is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level," Powell said at an event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

That's Fed speak for the central bank going from pedal-to-the-metal support for the economy to hitting the brakes. That makes sense given that inflation is high and unemployment is low.

But the harder the Fed hits the brakes, the greater the risk of causing an accident that could potentially wreck the financial markets, the real economy, or both.

Comments

Anna 4 year ago
15% hike and inflation stops. And retired folk can live on the savings they worked all their lives for.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Cybercrime, Inc.: When Crime Becomes an Economy. How the World Accidentally Built a Twenty-Trillion-Dollar Criminal Economy
Strategic Restraint, Credible Force, and the Discipline of Power
Donald Trump Organization Unveils Championship Golf Course and Luxury Resort Project in Saudi Arabia
Inside Diriyah: Saudi Arabia’s $63.2 Billion Vision to Transform Its Historic Heart into a Global Tourism Powerhouse
Trump Designates Saudi Arabia a Major Non-NATO Ally, Elevating US–Riyadh Defense Partnership
Trump Organization Deepens Saudi Property Focus with $10 Billion Luxury Developments
There is no sovereign immunity for poisoning millions with drugs.
Mohammed bin Salman’s Global Standing: Strategic Partner in Transition Amid Debate Over His Role
Saudi Arabia Opens Property Market to Foreign Buyers in Landmark Reform
The U.S. State Department’s account in Persian: “President Trump is a man of action. If you didn’t know it until now, now you do—do not play games with President Trump.”
CNN’s Ranking of Israel’s Women’s Rights Sparks Debate After Misleading Global Index Comparison
Saudi Arabia’s Shifting Regional Alignment Raises Strategic Concerns in Jerusalem
OPEC+ Holds Oil Output Steady Amid Member Tensions and Market Oversupply
Iranian Protests Intensify as Another Revolutionary Guard Member Is Killed and Khamenei Blames the West
President Trump Says United States Will Administer Venezuela Until a Secure Leadership Transition
Delta Force Identified as Unit Behind U.S. Operation That Captured Venezuela’s President
Saudi-UAE Rift Adds Complexity to Middle East Diplomacy as Trump Signals Firm Leadership
OPEC+ to Keep Oil Output Policy Unchanged Despite Saudi-UAE Tensions Over Yemen
Saudi Arabia and UAE at Odds in Yemen Conflict as Southern Offensive Deepens Gulf Rift
Abu Dhabi ‘Capital of Capital’: How Abu Dhabi Rose as a Sovereign Wealth Power
Diamonds Are Powering a New Quantum Revolution
Trump Threatens Strikes Against Iran if Nuclear Programme Is Restarted
Why Saudi Arabia May Recalibrate Its US Spending Commitments Amid Rising China–America Rivalry
Riyadh Air’s First Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Completes Initial Test Flight, Advancing Saudi Carrier’s Launch
Saudi Arabia’s 2025: A Pivotal Year of Global Engagement and Domestic Transformation
Saudi Arabia to Introduce Sugar-Content Based Tax on Sweetened Drinks from January 2026
Saudi Hotels Prepare for New Hospitality Roles as Alcohol Curbs Ease
Global Airports Forum Highlights Saudi Arabia’s Emergence as a Leading Aviation Powerhouse
Saudi Arabia Weighs Strategic Choice on Iran Amid Regional Turbulence
Saudi Arabia Condemns Sydney Bondi Beach Shooting and Expresses Solidarity with Australia
Washington Watches Beijing–Riyadh Rapprochement as Strategic Balance Shifts
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Drives Measurable Lift in Global Reputation and Influence
Alcohol Policies Vary Widely Across Muslim-Majority Countries, With Many Permitting Consumption Under Specific Rules
Saudi Arabia Clarifies No Formal Ban on Photography at Holy Mosques for Hajj 2026
Libya and Saudi Arabia Sign Strategic MoU to Boost Telecommunications Cooperation
Elon Musk’s xAI Announces Landmark 500-Megawatt AI Data Center in Saudi Arabia
Israel Moves to Safeguard Regional Stability as F-35 Sales Debate Intensifies
Cardi B to Make Historic Saudi Arabia Debut at Soundstorm 2025 Festival
U.S. Democratic Lawmakers Raise National Security and Influence Concerns Over Paramount’s Hostile Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Hackers Are Hiding Malware in Open-Source Tools and IDE Extensions
Traveling to USA? Homeland Security moving toward requiring foreign travelers to share social media history
Wall Street Analysts Clash With Riyadh Over Saudi Arabia’s Deficit Outlook
Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Cement $1 Trillion-Plus Deals in High-Profile White House Summit
Saudi Arabia Opens Alcohol Sales to Wealthy Non-Muslim Residents Under New Access Rules
U.S.–Saudi Rethink Deepens — Washington Moves Ahead Without Linking Riyadh to Israel Normalisation
Saudi Arabia and Israel Deprioritise Diplomacy: Normalisation No Longer a Middle-East Priority
As Trump Deepens Ties with Saudi Arabia, Push for Israel Normalization Takes a Back Seat
Thai Food Village Debuts at Saudi Feast Food Festival 2025 Under Thai Commerce Minister Suphajee’s Lead
Saudi Arabia Sharpens Its Strategic Vision as Economic Transformation Enters New Phase
Saudi Arabia Projects $44 Billion Budget Shortfall in 2026 as Economy Rebalances
×