OPEC expects strong oil demand growth in 2024, 2025
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts a significant increase in global oil demand during 2024 and 2025, largely fueled by China’s strong economic performance.
OPEC's report indicates an expected rise of 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, followed by an increase of 1.85 million bpd in 2025. This projection remains consistent with previous estimates.
Key factors contributing to this demand growth include robust activities in China, a resurgence in global air travel, and sustained needs for petrochemical feedstocks.
However, concerns such as inflation, monetary policy tightening, and high sovereign debt levels may impact the overall global demand for oil in the current year.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency forecasts a reduction in oil demand to 1.2 million bpd in 2024, which differs from OPEC's outlook.
Strengthening airline and road transportation activities, particularly in the 38 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, are likely to boost consumption of jet oil, kerosene, and gasoline in 2024.
Notably, oil demand surged by 2.5 million bpd in 2023, with non-OECD countries, including China, experiencing robust economic growth following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gasoline consumption is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 2024, though jet fuel demand may remain slightly below those levels for the current year.
Regarding non-OPEC production, an anticipated rise in 2024 is projected at 1.2 million bpd, a slight decrease from earlier predictions.
The main contributors to this growth are expected to be the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, and Norway. For 2025, non-OPEC supply is also set to increase by 1.3 million bpd, driven by the same countries plus Kazakhstan.
Lastly, OPEC anticipates the world economy to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and by 2.9% in 2025.
Key factors contributing to this demand growth include robust activities in China, a resurgence in global air travel, and sustained needs for petrochemical feedstocks.
However, concerns such as inflation, monetary policy tightening, and high sovereign debt levels may impact the overall global demand for oil in the current year.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency forecasts a reduction in oil demand to 1.2 million bpd in 2024, which differs from OPEC's outlook.
Strengthening airline and road transportation activities, particularly in the 38 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, are likely to boost consumption of jet oil, kerosene, and gasoline in 2024.
Notably, oil demand surged by 2.5 million bpd in 2023, with non-OECD countries, including China, experiencing robust economic growth following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gasoline consumption is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 2024, though jet fuel demand may remain slightly below those levels for the current year.
Regarding non-OPEC production, an anticipated rise in 2024 is projected at 1.2 million bpd, a slight decrease from earlier predictions.
The main contributors to this growth are expected to be the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, and Norway. For 2025, non-OPEC supply is also set to increase by 1.3 million bpd, driven by the same countries plus Kazakhstan.
Lastly, OPEC anticipates the world economy to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and by 2.9% in 2025.
