Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Jun 01, 2025

The Manhattan DA's likely case against Trump would be far from a 'slam dunk conviction'

The Manhattan DA's likely case against Trump would be far from a 'slam dunk conviction'

A potential indictment against Trump would be unprecedented. Here's why NY prosecutors would face an uphill battle to convict him.
After years of being mired in criminal and civil investigations into everything from his business dealings to his role in the Capitol riot, former President Donald Trump is now staring down a potential indictment from the Manhattan district attorney's office.

But despite its gravity — Trump is the current frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination — experts say the likeliest case New York prosecutors could bring is far from open-and-shut.

A Trump indictment would be unprecedented on a few levels. For one, it would be the first time an ex-president was charged with criminal violations. The facts of the case also mean New York prosecutors would need to use a largely untested approach to tie a possible violation of state law to a violation of federal election laws — and their star witness would likely be Trump's former lawyer, an admitted felon who's previously lied to investigators.

All things considered, experts say the former president may have a better shot at getting off the hook in this case compared to other legal threats he faces from state and federal prosecutors.

If Trump is indicted, the case is expected to center on an illegal hush-money payment that his then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, made to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election in exchange for her silence about an alleged affair with Trump. Cohen has testified that he paid Daniels at Trump's direction, but Trump and his lawyers deny knowledge of the payment.

Trump has also denied the affair and said he did "absolutely nothing wrong." And he's accused the Manhattan DA, Alvin Bragg, of running a politically motivated fishing expedition and called on congressional Republicans to investigate Bragg's office.

Among the charges Trump could face is violating New York's business records statute, which bars individuals from falsifying business records with an intent to defraud. According to media reporting about how the DA's office is evaluating the case and presenting evidence to the grand jury, state prosecutors are seeking to charge Trump with a felony violation of the state law.

To do that, the DA's office must overcome an additional hurdle: it would have to prove that Trump falsified the records in order to commit another crime, or to aid or conceal the commission of falsifying the business records.

In Trump's case, based on public comments from the DA's office, the additional alleged crime would likely be a violation of federal campaign finance laws.

Some legal experts have pointed out that New York has a long history of bringing felony prosecutions based on falsifying business records. Just Security, for instance, found dozens of cases over the last 15 years that fall under that umbrella.

But Randall Eliason, a law professor at George Washington University, noted that state prosecutors could face an additional wrinkle where Trump is concerned.

Namely, New York's business records statute's "intent to defraud" requirement is "usually defined as intent to deprive a victim of money or property," Eliason wrote. But while all the examples in Just Security's review meet that requirement, "it's not clear how concealing a campaign contribution does."

"Prosecutors could argue an intent to deprive voters of accurate information," he added, "but it's not clear that would qualify as intent to defraud in NY (it clearly would not under federal law.)" If Trump is charged with falsifying business records, "expect to see this defense."

David Weinstein, a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of Florida, echoed that view, telling Insider that the potential case against Trump is far from a "slam dunk conviction."

Weinstein also pointed out that a significant portion of the case against Trump, if he's indicted, would hinge on the testimony of Cohen, his former fixer who claims Trump directed him to make the Daniels payments and who admitted to lying to Congress, among other crimes.

Cases like this — and others that rely on testimony from cooperating co-conspirators — are "more difficult to prove," Weinstein said.

If prosecutors argue that Trump committed a felony violation of the New York business records statute by breaking federal campaign finance laws, he added, the defense will likely argue that the DA is "overreaching" his duties of enforcing state laws.

Trump, for his part, frequently highlights Cohen's pitfalls as a star witness; earlier Thursday, he described his former longtime confidant as a "convicted nut job with zero credibility" in an all-caps Truth Social rant.

Insider reached out to a lawyer representing Trump for comment Thursday.

Barbara McQuade, the former US attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, told Insider that if Trump is charged, "the more the case relies on documents instead of the testimony of Michael Cohen, the stronger it will be."

"Whereas Cohen has some credibility issues as someone with an axe to grind and a convicted perjurer," prosecutors can get around those concerns by corroborating his testimony with bank records, phone records, and other documentary evidence.

"Documents don't lie and documents don't forget," McQuade added.

Eric Columbus, a former Justice Department official under the Obama administration, also wrote on Twitter that he had "serious concerns" about bringing an indictment against Trump focused on the Daniels hush-money payment if "there's nothing here that wasn't known in 2018," back when Cohen pleaded guilty.

Bragg's predecessor, Cyrus Vance Jr., strongly considered bringing an indictment against the former president centered around the hush-money payment, according to The Times.

But in the end, Vance's investigators deemed it too risky to charge Trump with falsifying business records and using federal campaign finance law violations as the secondary crime, The Times reported.

Columbus wrote that it's incumbent on Bragg's office to show that the rationale for indicting Trump has nothing to do with politics.

That rationale is "especially strong when the prosecuting office has *already* exercised such discretion and opted not to prosecute," he wrote. "If a prosecuting office reverses course, it must be able to explain why."

Reached for comment, a spokesperson for Bragg's office said that charging white-collar cases based on falsifying business records is a key aspect of its work, and that since Bragg took office, the Manhattan DA has filed more than 100 counts of felony falsifying business records counts against 29 individuals and entities.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
European and Arab Ministers Convene in Madrid to Address Gaza Conflict
Head of Gaza Aid Group Resigns Amid Humanitarian Concerns
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
Netanyahu Accuses Starmer of Siding with Hamas
Calls Grow to Resume Syrian Asylum Claims in UK
UAE Offers Free ChatGPT Plus Subscriptions to Citizens
Denmark Increases Retirement Age to 70, Setting a European Precedent
Iranian Director Jafar Panahi Wins Palme d'Or at Cannes
Israeli Airstrike Kills Nine Children of Gaza Doctor
Lebanon Initiates Plan to Disarm Palestinian Factions
Iran and U.S. Make Limited Progress in Nuclear Talks
Trump Administration's Tariff Policies and Dollar Strategy Spark Global Economic Debate
OpenAI Acquires Jony Ive’s Startup for $6.5 Billion to Build a Revolutionary “Third Core Device”
Turkey Weighs Citizens in Public as Erdoğan Launches National Slimming Campaign
UK Suspends Trade Talks with Israel Amid Gaza Offensive
Iran and U.S. Set for Fifth Round of Nuclear Talks Amid Rising Tensions
Russia Expands Military Presence Near Finland Amid Rising Tensions
Indian Scholar Arrested in Crackdown Over Pakistan Conflict Commentary
Israel Eases Gaza Blockade Amid Internal Dispute Over Military Strategy
President Biden’s announcement of advanced prostate cancer sparked public sympathy—but behind closed doors, Democrats are in panic
Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki Erupts Again, Spewing Ash Cloud over Flores Island
Indian jet shootdown: the all-robot legion behind China’s PL-15E missiles
The Chinese Dragon: The True Winner in the India-Pakistan Clash
Australia's Venomous Creatures Contribute to Life-Saving Antivenom Programme
The Spanish Were Right: Long Working Hours Harm Brain Function
Did Former FBI Director Call for Violence Against Trump? Instagram Post Sparks Uproar
US and UAE Partner to Develop Massive AI Data Center Complex
Apple's $95 Million Siri Settlement: Eligible Users Have Until July 2 to File Claims
US and UAE Reach Preliminary Agreement on Nvidia AI Chip Imports
President Trump and Elon Musk Welcomed by Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim with Cybertruck Convoy
Strong Warning Issued: Do Not Use General Chatbots for Medical, Legal, or Educational Guidance
NVIDIA and Saudi Arabia Launch Strategic Partnership to Establish AI Centers
Trump Meets Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara in Historic Encounter
US and Saudi Arabia Sign Landmark Agreements Across Multiple Sectors
Why Saudi Arabia Rolled Out a Purple Carpet for Donald Trump Instead of Red
Elon Musk Joins Trump Meeting in Saudi Arabia
Trump says it would be 'stupid' not to accept gift of Qatari plane
Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin Security
Michael Jordan to Serve as Analyst for NBA Games
×