The Israeli military council has decided to respond to Iran "without causing a full-scale war," after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government discussed "a wide range of options" proposed by Israeli military leaders to retaliate against Iran's missile attack last Saturday.
The decision on how to respond was finalized after the council was stuck for two days in a deadlock over setting priorities. Israeli officials stated that their country would respond, but the details of the response’s magnitude or timing were not disclosed.
According to Israel's Channel 12, the cabinet of war ministers discussed a set of options in its meeting on Monday to "harm" Iran following its drone and missile attack on Israel but aims to avoid triggering a full-scale war. In an unsourced report, the channel reported that Israel intends to proceed with an action in coordination with the United States, which stated it would not join Israel in any direct attack on Iran.
Early today, Israeli military spokesperson Peter Lerner told reporters that military officials had presented the government with a range of response options to the Iranian attack on Israel.
Lerner added that Israel's response could involve a military strike or might not, indicating that "there are a lot of different scenarios between these two options," as quoted by ABC News. Israel remains on high alert, but some emergency measures have been canceled, including some school activities and restrictions on large gatherings.
The council had a lengthy meeting on Sunday, marked by disagreements among officials regarding the nature and timing of the response to the Iranian aggression, deciding to hold another session on Monday. Israeli media suggested a third meeting might be held on Tuesday to complete consultations.
The Necessity of Deterrence
Israeli officials insisted that a response is necessary for deterrence purposes, given the severity of the Iranian attack in terms of the weapons launched towards Israel, and the fact that the attack was directly executed from Iran without hiding behind its proxies. However, any response should also avoid jeopardizing the potential formation of a strategic alliance against Iran.
Two Israeli sources told CNN on Monday that the war council is considering military options for responding to the Iranian attack, including targeting an Iranian facility while avoiding casualties. In addition to possible military retaliation, the war council is also exploring diplomatic options to increase Iran's global isolation, according to CNN.
The sources, who were not named by the news network, mentioned that Israel was planning to initiate a ground attack on Rafah in southern Gaza Strip this week but postponed those plans as it considers how to respond to Iran's recent attack.
On Sunday, two senior Israeli ministers suggested that an immediate response is not imminent and that Israel will not act alone. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that Israel has an opportunity to form a strategic alliance "against this serious threat posed by Iran."
Meanwhile, the Russian news agency Interfax reported on Monday that Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, discussed the escalating tensions in the Middle East with Israel's National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi. The Russian Security Council was quoted stating that Patrushev emphasized the need for all parties to exercise restraint to avoid escalating the conflict. Earlier on Monday, the Kremlin expressed deep concern about the escalating tensions in the Middle East following Iran's attack on Israel at the beginning of the week.
A "Dilemma"
A meeting between Netanyahu, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, and other party leaders for a security briefing was canceled, as confirmed by the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation. Israeli media reported that the invitation preceded an Israeli response to Iran.
Lapid accused Netanyahu's government on Monday of undermining "Israeli deterrence" in the wake of Iran's unprecedented attack on Saturday night.
The war council seems torn between the necessity to respond to the Iranian attack, regardless of the anticipated cost of potentially igniting a wider war, and opting for a measured response, and its impact on Israel's deterrent image. There is also the need to prioritize "Hamas" and to complete the mission in Rafah or to focus on building the long-desired Israeli alliance against Iran, even if it means postponing strikes in Iran and Rafah.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth stated, "There is a dilemma. On one hand, if Israel does not respond, this may convey weakness, certainly in the Middle East, prompting more attacks in the future. On the other hand, if Israel responds, it risks regional warfare and could find itself in a multi-front war."
Target Bank
The Israeli army has developed a plan to respond to the Iranian attack, which has created a new strategic reality as it was the first direct attack from Tehran on Israel.
Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the army's plan included boosting intelligence efforts, targeting scientists and drone factories, carrying out cyber attacks to disrupt ports and civil infrastructure, damaging the Iranian economy, and even conducting strikes inside Iran.
The plan aims not to lose the unofficial international coalition formed, and the military seeks to harness it "to curb Iran."
Israeli military officials stated that a response is necessary to maintain deterrence, asserting that the round with Iran is not over yet but requires careful consideration of the operation's scale and scope.
Taking time in responding also considers that the coalition formed primarily under the desire to avoid a wide-ranging regional escalation.
With the United States, Britain, France, and Jordan participating in thwarting the Iranian attack, they are now leading a diplomatic effort to ensure that the war between Israel and "Hamas" does not expand to other fronts.
Shai Har-Tsvi, from Reichman University, told Channel 12, "All the countries, for their various reasons, sought to thwart the Iranian attack. From the fear that if they do not help, Israel could suffer significant damage, leaving it no choice but to respond to the Iran attack broadly, thus putting the entire region at risk of a major war."
"For the Americans, preventing the conflict's expansion is just another step in their policy to avoid escalating conflicts in the Middle East at any cost," he added.
President
Joe Biden immediately restrained an Israeli attack planned on Iran after its attack on Israel on Saturday night. Biden informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he should be satisfied with the victory achieved in foiling the Iranian attack, emphasizing that the United States would also not be part of a potential attack on Iran.
In response to a question about intercepting the "significant" Iranian missile strike with minimal damage, Israeli military spokesperson Peter Lerner said, "Just because we were successful in interception, we should not underestimate what Iran has done," adding, "We cannot take it lightly."
Current and former Israeli officials urged respect for Biden's wishes and not to challenge him. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the night of the Iranian attack "was President Biden's great victory night, who made a significant difference by committing to Israel's security."
Olmert added, "Israel should not be dragged into a verbose war of words, typical here. Without Biden, everything would look different. This should be remembered before the prime minister's supporters and his surrounding thugs start issuing statements, threats, warnings, and demands."
The division over the nature of Israel's response to the Iranian attack is not limited to the political class but has also reached experts and former military personnel.
While Israeli officials confirmed that any attack on Rafah was suspended due to the response to Iran, Yaakov Amidror, former head of the National Security Council, stated that completing the Israeli army's operation in Gaza and retrieving the kidnapped are currently more important than responding to Iran. Amidror (75) said in a radio interview, "We must return to Gaza and finish the job there. Rafah must be occupied, and Hamas brigades there dismantled."
Netanyahu postponed an unspecified and unannounced date for the attack on Rafah during Sunday's cabinet meeting, leaving the timing of the attack on Rafah ambiguous, seemingly contingent upon Israel first closing the case with Iran.
Yedioth stated that Israel responded to the world's messages asking it not to retaliate by saying, "Israel will decide the scope, location, and timing of the response."
Regardless of the nature of the response and what it may lead to, Israel now faces a real test in targeting other high-ranking Iranian officials in Syria.