Lancet Study Reveals Higher Gaza Death Toll than Official Reports
Discrepancy in reported deaths highlights the complexity of wartime reporting in the Israel-Hamas conflict
A new research study published in The Lancet, a leading medical journal, has revealed that the death toll in Gaza over the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict is approximately 40% higher than the figures provided by the Palestinian Health Ministry.
The controversial findings have stirred debate regarding the accuracy of wartime casualty reporting.
The death toll in Gaza has been a contentious issue since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas following an unprecedented attack by the Palestinian group on Israel on October 7th, 2023.
According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, 37,877 people were killed in the conflict as of June 30th of last year.
However, The Lancet's study, which utilized various data sources including online surveys and social media obituaries, estimates that the number of war-related deaths in Gaza ranges between 55,298 and 78,525 during that period.
The study's best estimate is 64,260 deaths, marking a 41% increase from the figures published by the Health Ministry.
This number represents about 2.9% of Gaza's pre-war population, or roughly one in every 35 Gazans.
Led by researchers from the United Kingdom, the study suggests that 59% of the deceased were women, children, and the elderly.
Importantly, the count is limited to war-related fatalities, excluding other death causes such as inadequate healthcare or food shortages, and doesn't account for the thousands believed to be buried under the rubble.
The French Press Agency (AFP) was unable to independently verify the fatality numbers.
On Thursday, Gaza's Health Ministry announced 46,006 people have died in the war ongoing for 15 months.
On October 7th, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack against Israel, resulting in 1,208 deaths, mostly civilians, according to AFP's tally using official Israeli data.
Israel has consistently questioned the reliability of the casualty figures reported by Gaza's Health Ministry, though these numbers have been regarded as credible by the United Nations.
Researchers employed a statistical approach known as "capture-recapture" methodology to calculate the death toll, a technique used in other global conflicts.
The analysis relied on three separate lists: one provided by Gaza's Health Ministry identifying bodies in hospitals or morgues, another from an online survey conducted by the Ministry allowing Palestinians to report kin's deaths, and a third based on verified social media obituary data from platforms like X, Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp.
Dr. Zina Jamal Eddine, the lead author and epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, stated, "We focused only on those whose deaths were confirmed by relatives or by hospitals/morgues." The researchers examined overlaps between the three lists to derive a comprehensive death estimate.
Patrick Ball, a statistician with the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group, praised the research's methodology, affirming its long-proven reliability in similar conflicts around the world.
Yet, Kevin McConway, Professor Emeritus of Applied Statistics at The Open University in the UK, acknowledged the inherent uncertainties in such estimates due to incomplete data.
Nevertheless, he commended the study for using multiple statistical approaches to validate their estimates.
"Ultimately, I find these estimates reasonably convincing," he remarked.
Researchers warned that hospital lists might not always reflect cause of death, potentially including individuals with unrelated health problems, like heart attacks, thus skewing estimations.
All the while, some evidence indicates that the reported war toll might indeed be understated since missing persons weren't included in the study.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), about 10,000 missing Gazans are believed trapped beneath the destruction.
The war's indirect consequences—disruptions to healthcare, food, water, and sanitation, along with disease outbreaks—can further contribute to fatalities, issues long-plaguing Gaza since October 2023.
A provocative estimate published in The Lancet in July suggested that considering indirect mortality rates seen in other conflicts, Gaza's death toll could ultimately reach 186,000.
However, the new study posits these projections might be unsuitable for Gaza given stark disparities in pre-war health conditions compared to other conflict zones like Burundi and Timor-Leste.
Dr. Jamal Eddine expects criticism from various quarters regarding the research findings, yet she rebuked the "obsession" with debating fatality figures, stressing that the overwhelming number of deaths is already a known reality.
The controversial findings have stirred debate regarding the accuracy of wartime casualty reporting.
The death toll in Gaza has been a contentious issue since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas following an unprecedented attack by the Palestinian group on Israel on October 7th, 2023.
According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, 37,877 people were killed in the conflict as of June 30th of last year.
However, The Lancet's study, which utilized various data sources including online surveys and social media obituaries, estimates that the number of war-related deaths in Gaza ranges between 55,298 and 78,525 during that period.
The study's best estimate is 64,260 deaths, marking a 41% increase from the figures published by the Health Ministry.
This number represents about 2.9% of Gaza's pre-war population, or roughly one in every 35 Gazans.
Led by researchers from the United Kingdom, the study suggests that 59% of the deceased were women, children, and the elderly.
Importantly, the count is limited to war-related fatalities, excluding other death causes such as inadequate healthcare or food shortages, and doesn't account for the thousands believed to be buried under the rubble.
The French Press Agency (AFP) was unable to independently verify the fatality numbers.
On Thursday, Gaza's Health Ministry announced 46,006 people have died in the war ongoing for 15 months.
On October 7th, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack against Israel, resulting in 1,208 deaths, mostly civilians, according to AFP's tally using official Israeli data.
Israel has consistently questioned the reliability of the casualty figures reported by Gaza's Health Ministry, though these numbers have been regarded as credible by the United Nations.
Researchers employed a statistical approach known as "capture-recapture" methodology to calculate the death toll, a technique used in other global conflicts.
The analysis relied on three separate lists: one provided by Gaza's Health Ministry identifying bodies in hospitals or morgues, another from an online survey conducted by the Ministry allowing Palestinians to report kin's deaths, and a third based on verified social media obituary data from platforms like X, Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp.
Dr. Zina Jamal Eddine, the lead author and epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, stated, "We focused only on those whose deaths were confirmed by relatives or by hospitals/morgues." The researchers examined overlaps between the three lists to derive a comprehensive death estimate.
Patrick Ball, a statistician with the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group, praised the research's methodology, affirming its long-proven reliability in similar conflicts around the world.
Yet, Kevin McConway, Professor Emeritus of Applied Statistics at The Open University in the UK, acknowledged the inherent uncertainties in such estimates due to incomplete data.
Nevertheless, he commended the study for using multiple statistical approaches to validate their estimates.
"Ultimately, I find these estimates reasonably convincing," he remarked.
Researchers warned that hospital lists might not always reflect cause of death, potentially including individuals with unrelated health problems, like heart attacks, thus skewing estimations.
All the while, some evidence indicates that the reported war toll might indeed be understated since missing persons weren't included in the study.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), about 10,000 missing Gazans are believed trapped beneath the destruction.
The war's indirect consequences—disruptions to healthcare, food, water, and sanitation, along with disease outbreaks—can further contribute to fatalities, issues long-plaguing Gaza since October 2023.
A provocative estimate published in The Lancet in July suggested that considering indirect mortality rates seen in other conflicts, Gaza's death toll could ultimately reach 186,000.
However, the new study posits these projections might be unsuitable for Gaza given stark disparities in pre-war health conditions compared to other conflict zones like Burundi and Timor-Leste.
Dr. Jamal Eddine expects criticism from various quarters regarding the research findings, yet she rebuked the "obsession" with debating fatality figures, stressing that the overwhelming number of deaths is already a known reality.
