Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

Nordic deal increases Turkish power in NATO, but pitfalls ahead

Nordic deal increases Turkish power in NATO, but pitfalls ahead

The deal last week saw Turkey back Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids, averting a potential crisis, but differences remain.

The last-minute deal between Turkey, Sweden and Finland to clear the path for the Nordic countries’ NATO membership has been portrayed as Ankara firmly placing itself alongside its Western allies in the face of Russia’s aggression.

In recent years, debate has raged over whether Turkey is turning away from the West, fuelled by episodes such as Ankara’s acquisition of Russian missiles three years ago and, more recently, its refusal to join sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine.

When Turkey announced in May that it would veto Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications unless they met a string of demands, many saw it as further proof of Ankara’s reputation as a partner that was increasingly charting its own path within NATO.

But last week’s agreement – addressing Turkish concerns over the activities of groups it has designated as “terrorist” organisations in the Nordic states, extradition of suspects and removing restrictions on arms sales to Turkey – saw President Recep Tayyip Erdogan feted as a loyal and supportive ally at NATO’s Madrid summit.

“The agreement is a very positive and historic development for Turkey’s relations with Sweden and Finland and NATO as a whole,” said Ali Bakeer, assistant professor at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences.

“It shows Turkey’s commitment to support the unity and expansion of NATO … It’s a win-win situation and NATO emerges stronger as a collective security organisation vis-a-vis rising threats and Russia.”

Ankara joined NATO in 1952 during the alliance’s first wave of enlargement, having sent troops to fight under the United Nations banner in the Korean War two years earlier. At the time, Turkey and Norway were the only NATO states with land bordering the Soviet Union.

Turkey, which has the second-largest military in NATO after the United States, provided a vital southern flank to the alliance.




Potential problems ahead


Despite the positive reaction to the Turkey-Sweden-Finland agreement, there are signs enlargement could still throw up challenges for NATO.

Erdogan has signalled that Turkey could block the process if Sweden and Finland did not “fulfil [the] duties” outlined in the 10-article deal. The Nordic expansion must also be ratified by the parliaments of all 30 NATO members.

“Turkey got a lot of what it asked for but there are potential pitfalls for the ratification process,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

“Turkey, Sweden and Finland are not on the same page when it comes to the definition of terrorism. Individuals who Turkey considers terrorists may be not considered so by Sweden and Finland and when Turkey requests their extradition this may still be refused.

“I can imagine Turkey further delaying the ratification process on the grounds that Sweden and Finland are not abiding by the written agreement … But, having said this, they’ve managed to kick the can down the road and maybe other solutions can be developed in the meanwhile.”




Turkish persuasion


Ankara has played a crucial part in avoiding a crisis within the alliance at a time when Europe is facing its greatest threat since the Cold War.

“The biggest win in this deal is the fact that there is no crisis in Turkey-NATO relations,” said Galip Dalay, associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme in London.

“If there had been no deal after this summit, which is perhaps the most significant summit in decades, that would have led to crisis. The fact that this crisis was averted is a major win for all sides in NATO.”

Having polished its standing within NATO, Turkey will now seek to persuade its allies over its view on “terrorism”, according to analysts.

The Nordic deal has seen Western countries recognise Ankara’s concerns over the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) for the first time. The group – instrumental in fighting ISIL (ISIS) as part of the US-led coalition in Syria – is tied to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an armed uprising against Turkey for 38 years.

Turkey is now likely to push other countries, which have largely maintained that the PKK and the YPG are separate entities, to adopt a similar position.

Turkey has pledged to repeat its 2019 incursion into YPG-controlled northern Syria. The previous operation led to widespread Western condemnation and restrictions on defence sales to Ankara.

“Turkey will now expect Europe and the US not to criticise that [incursion] beyond lip service,” Unluhisarcikli said.

Dalay explained that Russia’s war in Ukraine would lead to further convergence between Turkey and its NATO allies. Turkey is the only NATO member in direct competition with Russia in Syria and Libya – a situation that creates unique security threats for Ankara.

“Russian revisionism has always driven Turkey closer towards the West,” Dalay said. “That was the case for the Ottoman Empire, that was the case when Turkey was applying to enter NATO and that’s the case today.

“But while Turkey will gradually converge with the West on geopolitical matters, it will try to do so in a manner that will not antagonise Russia.”



Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
United States Sells Luxury Yacht Amadea, Valued at Approximately $325 Million, in First Sale of a Seized Russian Yacht Since the Invasion of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez announce engagement
Asia-Pacific dominates world’s busiest flight routes, with South Korea’s Jeju–Seoul corridor leading global rankings
Private Welsh island with 19th-century fort listed for sale at over £3 million
Sam Altman challenges Elon Musk with plans for Neuralink rival
Australia to Recognize the State of Palestine at UN Assembly
The Collapse of the Programmer Dream: AI Experts Now the Real High-Earners
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Germany’s Economic Breakdown and the Return of Militarization: From Industrial Collapse to a New Offensive Strategy
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Mediators Edge Closer to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
Germany Seeks Taliban Deal to Deport Afghan Migrants
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
×