Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Monday, Mar 09, 2026

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

The IMF predicts the UK economy will shrink this year, although this is a small upgrade from its last forecast.

It also warned of a "rocky road" for the global financial system.

It follows the collapse of two US banks last month, closely followed by a rushed takeover of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse by its rival UBS, which sparked fears of another financial crisis.

The IMF had already forecast that the UK would experience a downturn this year and be bottom of the pile of the G7 - a group of the world's seven largest so-called "advanced" economies, which dominate global trade and the international financial system. The UK topped the group in 2022 during the pandemic rebound.

It now expects the UK economy to shrink by 0.3% in 2023 and then grow by 1% next year.

Although the UK is forecast to have the worst economic performance this year, the IMF's latest prediction is slightly better than its previous expectation of a 0.6% contraction, made in January.

IMF researchers have previously pointed to Britain's exposure to high gas prices, rising interest rates and a sluggish trade performance as reasons for its weak economic performance.

Forecasts are made to give a guide to what is most likely to happen in the future, but they are not always right. For example, previous IMF forecasts picked up fewer than 10% of recessions a year ahead of time, according to an analysis it conducted of recessions around the world between 1992 and 2014.

Responding to the latest IMF's predictions, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "Our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.

"The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone."

But Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow chancellor, said the estimates showed "just how far we continue to lag behind on the global stage".

"This matters not just because 13 years of low growth under the Tories are weakening our economy, but because it's why families are worse off, facing a Tory mortgage penalty and seeing living standards falling at their fastest rate since records began," she added.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the forecast was "another damning indictment of this Conservative government's record on the economy".

A number of forecasters think the chances of a recession in the UK this year are declining. An economy is usually said to be in recession if it shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility now expects the economy to contract by 0.2% this year but avoid a recession.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey also said recently that he was "much more hopeful" for the economy, and it was no longer heading into an immediate recession.


The new forecasts come against the backdrop of a world economy that continues to recover from both the pandemic and the Ukraine war energy shock.

But the IMF said there were concerns about the wider impact of recent fragility in global banking markets.

The IMF now expects global growth to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, before rising slowly and settling at 3% in five years' time.

But it warned that if there is more stress in the financial sector, global growth could weaken further this year.


Interest rates predicted to fall


Separately, the IMF said it expects real interest rates - which take into account inflation - in major economies to fall to pre-pandemic levels because of low productivity and ageing populations.

Central banks in the UK, the US, Europe and other nations have been increasing interest rates to combat the rate of price rises, otherwise known as inflation.

In the UK, inflation is at its highest for nearly 40 years because of rising energy prices and soaring food costs. In response, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates, and last month increased them to 4.25%.

However, in a blog the IMF said that "recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary".

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Crown Prince Holds Strategic Calls With Spanish and Ukrainian Leaders Amid Regional Tensions
Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways Shifts Operations to Saudi Arabia Amid Regional Airspace Disruptions
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix: Why Jeddah’s Night Race Has Become One of Formula One’s Most Distinctive Events
F1 Leadership Addresses Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Races as Middle East Conflict Raises Safety Concerns
Zelenskyy Offers Saudi Crown Prince Assistance to Counter Iranian Drone Threat
Seventh U.S. Service Member Dies from Injuries After Iranian Strike in Saudi Arabia
Civilian Infrastructure Increasingly Hit as Iran Conflict Expands and Saudi Arabia Reports First Fatalities
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran to Halt Attacks and Signals Potential Retaliation
US Embassy in Riyadh Issues Security Alert Urging Americans to Shelter in Place Amid Regional Attacks
Projectile Strike on Saudi Residential Building Kills Two as Regional Conflict Expands
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran While Expanding Diplomatic Efforts to Contain Widening Middle East War
Iran’s President Rejects U.S. Surrender Demand as Drone and Missile Strikes Hit Gulf States
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Drone Swarm Targeting Strategic Shaybah Oil Field
Pakistan Faces Growing Pressure to Balance Ties With Iran and Saudi Arabia as Regional War Intensifies
Middle East Conflict Tests Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision to Transform Saudi Arabia Into a Global Hub
Proposed U.S.–Saudi Nuclear Deal Could Ease Traditional Nonproliferation Requirements
Iran Claims Strike on U.S.-Linked Oil Tanker Near Saudi Waters as Maritime Tensions Escalate
Saudi Arabia Says Air Defences Destroyed 23 Drones and Three Missiles Amid Escalating Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran Against ‘Miscalculation’ After Missile and Drone Attacks Across Gulf
Iranian Missiles Intercepted Across Gulf as Air Defences Activate in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Bahrain
U.S. Justice Department Pursues Criminal Cases Against Cuban Officials in New Legal Push
Abrupt Cancellation of U.S. Army Exercise Sparks Speculation Over Possible Middle East Deployment
Saudi Arabia Led OPEC Output Surge Ahead of Iran Strikes, Survey Finds
Cristiano Ronaldo Travels to Spain for Hamstring Treatment After Injury in Saudi Pro League Match
Saudi Aramco Reroutes Oil to Red Sea as Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Hit Gulf Exports
Saudi Arabia Presses Ahead With Economic Diversification Despite Fiscal and External Deficits
Middle East Conflict Puts Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Formula One Races at Risk
Iran Targets Israeli Diplomatic Site in Bahrain and US Air Base in Qatar as Regional Conflict Expands
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Three Ballistic Missiles Targeting Prince Sultan Air Base
Iran Launches Fresh Missile and Drone Attacks Across Middle East as Regional War Intensifies
Saudi Arabia Opens Direct Communication Channel With Iran in Bid to Prevent Wider Regional War
Saudi Arabia Maintains Strong Fiscal Position Despite Global Uncertainty, Finance Ministry Says
Saudi Arabia Considers Response After Iranian Drone Strike Hits Major Northern Oil Refinery
Saudi Carrier Flynas Plans Limited Flight Resumption to Dubai Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia and UAE Pledge Close Coordination to Secure Oil Supplies for Japan
Middle East Conflict Casts Doubt Over Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Formula One Races
Iran Rejects Claims of Attacks on Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia and Oman
Saudi Arabia Condemns Iranian Strikes Targeting Türkiye and Azerbaijan
Saudi Pro League Orders Clubs to Continue Matches Despite Escalating Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Scrambles to Redirect Oil Exports as Gulf Storage Nears Capacity
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh Issues Emergency Security Alert After Drone Strike and Escalating Regional Threats
Iran Expresses Gratitude to Saudi Arabia for Closing Airspace During Escalating Conflict
Saudi Arabia Fears Iranian Strikes Could Target Senior Leaders as Regional War Escalates
Iran Says Its Strikes Target Only U.S. Military Assets and Denies Attacking Saudi Arabia
Drone Strike Hits U.S. Embassy in Riyadh as Middle East Conflict Escalates
Tom Brady’s Saudi Flag Football Event May Shift to U.S. as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Plans
Iran War Strikes Saudi Arabia at a Critical Moment for Its Economic Transformation
Saudi Cabinet Declares Kingdom Will Take All Necessary Measures to Defend National Security
United States Urges Citizens to Leave Fourteen Middle Eastern Countries as Iran War Escalates
Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura Refinery Targeted Again in Second Drone Attack Within Two Days
×