Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Wednesday, Mar 18, 2026

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

The IMF predicts the UK economy will shrink this year, although this is a small upgrade from its last forecast.

It also warned of a "rocky road" for the global financial system.

It follows the collapse of two US banks last month, closely followed by a rushed takeover of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse by its rival UBS, which sparked fears of another financial crisis.

The IMF had already forecast that the UK would experience a downturn this year and be bottom of the pile of the G7 - a group of the world's seven largest so-called "advanced" economies, which dominate global trade and the international financial system. The UK topped the group in 2022 during the pandemic rebound.

It now expects the UK economy to shrink by 0.3% in 2023 and then grow by 1% next year.

Although the UK is forecast to have the worst economic performance this year, the IMF's latest prediction is slightly better than its previous expectation of a 0.6% contraction, made in January.

IMF researchers have previously pointed to Britain's exposure to high gas prices, rising interest rates and a sluggish trade performance as reasons for its weak economic performance.

Forecasts are made to give a guide to what is most likely to happen in the future, but they are not always right. For example, previous IMF forecasts picked up fewer than 10% of recessions a year ahead of time, according to an analysis it conducted of recessions around the world between 1992 and 2014.

Responding to the latest IMF's predictions, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "Our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.

"The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone."

But Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow chancellor, said the estimates showed "just how far we continue to lag behind on the global stage".

"This matters not just because 13 years of low growth under the Tories are weakening our economy, but because it's why families are worse off, facing a Tory mortgage penalty and seeing living standards falling at their fastest rate since records began," she added.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the forecast was "another damning indictment of this Conservative government's record on the economy".

A number of forecasters think the chances of a recession in the UK this year are declining. An economy is usually said to be in recession if it shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility now expects the economy to contract by 0.2% this year but avoid a recession.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey also said recently that he was "much more hopeful" for the economy, and it was no longer heading into an immediate recession.


The new forecasts come against the backdrop of a world economy that continues to recover from both the pandemic and the Ukraine war energy shock.

But the IMF said there were concerns about the wider impact of recent fragility in global banking markets.

The IMF now expects global growth to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, before rising slowly and settling at 3% in five years' time.

But it warned that if there is more stress in the financial sector, global growth could weaken further this year.


Interest rates predicted to fall


Separately, the IMF said it expects real interest rates - which take into account inflation - in major economies to fall to pre-pandemic levels because of low productivity and ageing populations.

Central banks in the UK, the US, Europe and other nations have been increasing interest rates to combat the rate of price rises, otherwise known as inflation.

In the UK, inflation is at its highest for nearly 40 years because of rising energy prices and soaring food costs. In response, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates, and last month increased them to 4.25%.

However, in a blog the IMF said that "recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary".

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Supreme Court Urges Muslims to Observe Crescent Moon for Eid Determination
Saudi Supreme Court Urges Muslims to Observe Crescent Moon for Eid Determination
Saudi Arabia Reassesses Iran Strategy as Regional Conflict Tests MBS’s Diplomatic Bet
Iran Steps Up Drone Strikes on Saudi Oil Sites, Heightening Risks to Global Supply
Regional Fallout Grows as Iran Conflict Sends Shockwaves Across Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Seven Drones in Intensifying Regional Security Threat
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Seven Drones in Intensifying Regional Security Threat
Saudi Arabia Weighs Regional Risks as Iran Conflict Deepens and Security Calculations Shift
Gulf States Confront Limits of U.S. Protection as Regional War Intensifies
Gulf Producers Rush to Reroute Oil Exports as Iran Tightens Control of Hormuz Strait
Saudi Gaming Investment Arm Acquires Strategic Stake in Capcom to Expand Global Influence
Iran Intensifies Strikes on Saudi Oil Infrastructure as Regional War Escalates
Saudi Arabia Targets South African Professionals in New Recruitment Drive Amid Regional Uncertainty
Formula One Faces Major Financial Hit as Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Cancelled Amid Middle East Conflict
U.S. and Saudi Firms Launch Local Production of Attritable Drone Systems in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia and UAE Warn Rising Gulf Tensions Could Endanger Regional Security
Saudi Arabia Rejects Claims It Encouraged Prolonged War With Iran
Saudi Arabia to Host World’s Largest Single-Cell Protein Plant as Food Security Push Accelerates
Saudi Crown Prince Urges Trump to Continue Military Pressure on Iran
Iran Intensifies Drone Campaign Against Saudi Arabia as Gulf Conflict Escalates
When Is Eid al-Fitr 2026? Saudi Arabia Awaits Moon Sighting to Confirm End of Ramadan
When Is Eid al-Fitr 2026? Saudi Arabia Awaits Moon Sighting to Confirm End of Ramadan
Iranian Missile Strike Damages Five U.S. Refueling Aircraft at Saudi Air Base
Iranian Missile Strike Damages Five U.S. Refueling Aircraft at Saudi Air Base
Washington State Pilot Among Six U.S. Airmen Killed in Military Aircraft Crash Over Iraq
Severe Storm Threat Looms Over Washington as Tornado Risk and Damaging Winds Target Mid-Atlantic
Trump Supports FCC Warning to Broadcasters Over Iran War Reporting
Trump Supports FCC Warning to Broadcasters Over Iran War Reporting
Saudi Stocks Edge Lower as Tadawul All Share Index Slips Slightly at Market Close
Iranian Missile and Drone Strike Targets Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base Hosting US Aircraft
Saudi Air Defenses Intercept Drone Over Eastern Province as Iranian Strike Campaign Intensifies
Middle East War Reshapes Gulf Economies as Saudi Arabia and Oman Gain Strategic Leverage While UAE Faces Economic Shock
Iranian Ambassador in Riyadh Blames ‘Enemies’ for Attacks Across the Gulf
Israeli Envoy Ron Dermer Reportedly Visits Saudi Arabia for Discussions on Potential Lebanon Talks
Formula One Cancels Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix Scheduled for April
Iran’s Ambassador in Riyadh Rejects Claims Tehran Targeted Saudi Oil Facilities
Saudi Arabia Declares 2026 ‘Year of Artificial Intelligence’ in Major Push for Data-Driven Economy
Saudi Arabia’s 2018 Budget Signals Strong Push for Non-Oil Economic Growth
Pakistan Envoy in Riyadh Says Regional Diplomacy Intensifying to Prevent Wider Middle East War
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Dozens of Drones as Regional Strikes Kill Two in Oman
Saudi Arabia Redirects Oil Exports to Red Sea Ports as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missile and Drone Barrage as Regional Conflict Intensifies
Iran Expands Drone and Missile Campaign Across Gulf as Conflict With US and Israel Intensifies
Muslims Worldwide Await Saudi Moon Sighting to Confirm Eid al-Fitr 2026 Date
F1 Calendar Faces Major Disruption as Middle East Conflict Threatens Bahrain and Saudi Races
Trump Says Most US Aircraft Hit in Saudi Base Attack Suffered Minimal Damage
Trump Says Most US Aircraft Hit in Saudi Base Attack Suffered Minimal Damage
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Forces Saudi Arabia Into Major Oil Production Shut-In
Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Output as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Cuts Deep Into Gulf Revenues
×