Saudi Arabia is expected to slash the official selling price of its crude for Asian buyers in January 2026 to the lowest level in five years, following a Reuters survey of refiners and traders.

The survey suggests that the flagship Arab Light grade may trade at just 60–70 cents per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark — a drop of 30–40 cents from December.

Other grades such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy are also forecast to see reductions ranging from 30 to 50 cents per barrel.

The anticipated price reductions come as global supply continues to outpace demand.

Since April, the producers’ alliance OPEC+ has raised output by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day.

In addition, recent surprise spot-market cargoes — including nearly 4 million barrels of heavy crude released by another Gulf producer — have added downward pressure on prices.

Analysts say the lowered official selling prices (OSPs) may prompt Asian refiners — especially in China and India — to increase term nominations or spot purchases of Saudi crude, potentially stimulating regional demand.

Still, the move underscores growing concern over demand softness in major markets across Asia and the broader challenge for producers balancing market share against the risk of oversupply.

The final pricing decision for January will likely be confirmed by Saudi Aramco around the fifth of December, as is customary.

That announcement will set the tone for roughly nine million barrels per day of crude bound for Asia and influence pricing for other Gulf producers tying their contracts to Saudi benchmark levels.

Markets have already reacted cautiously: Gulf equities eased recently as traders digested signs of weakening oil-market fundamentals and adjusted their outlook for energy firms dependent on high oil revenues.

The expected price drop highlights the volatility that now defines global crude markets ahead of the new year.