Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Thursday, Jul 03, 2025

Can 'earthquake diplomacy' help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

Can 'earthquake diplomacy' help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

In the hours after two massive earthquakes hit southern Turkey, the well-oiled wheels of humanitarian assistance started turning in Sweden and Finland.

The Nordic nations are locked in something of a stalemate with Ankara over their NATO memberships -- as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds up the process, demanding that Stockholm and Helsinki meet strict criteria before moving forward with ratification.

So could 'earthquake diplomacy' soften Turkey's stance towards the NATO applicants?

It's worked before in the region.

Back in 1999 a powerful quake hit near the Turkish city of İzmit, and the Greeks were among the first to respond with aid, despite decades of enmity between the two neighbours. A few months later when a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit Athens, the Turks reciprocated with help.

The show of neighbourly good faith led to Greece dropping its objections on Turkey becoming an EU candidate country -- something policy makers in Finland and Sweden will be hoping to see repeated.


What aid have Sweden and Finland given?


The Swedes have so far given €3.3 million in humanitarian support, and sent more than 50 search and rescue experts, search dogs, and medical teams to Turkey.

“The core support that Sweden is already contributing makes a big difference on the ground in Türkiye and Syria," said Sweden's Minister for International Development Cooperation Johan Forssell.

Forssell said his government acted "swiftly and resolutely" but Dr Paul Levin at Stockholm University's Institute for Turkish Studies said they could have moved faster.

"Sweden was late providing aid."

"I don't think that's a lack of trying or will, but that Sweden is not good at swift disaster response," he told Euronews, citing critical Royal Commissions into official responses to the 2004 Asia tsunami, and COVID-19 pandemic.

"I think we are unfortunately not good at disaster response," Levin said.

On the EU level, Sweden -- which currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Council -- convened the bloc's Integrated Political Crisis Response mechanism last week, to coordinate all EU support for both Turkey and Syria at political level.

Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson and Ursula von der Leyen also announced they'll organise an international donor conference for Turkey and Syria in March.

In Finland, the government response has been fairly fast and robust, and loudly telegraphed to Ankara.

Helsinki provided heated emergency accommodation, including tents and stoves, for 3,000 people; and coordinated delivery of supplies through NATO.

The Finns have also sent search and rescue experts, and also contribute multilaterally through the UN's Central Emergency Response Fund, which has so far given $50 million (€46.65 million).

"Tens of thousands of people have died and the destruction is very extensive. The need for emergency accommodation in the area hit by the earthquake is huge," said Finland's Interior Minister Krista Mikkonen.

"By sending material assistance, Finland aims to help people meet their basic needs. It is important that we provide help to the earthquake area as soon as possible."

Left wing protesters against government's handling of earthquake response, in Istanbul, Turkey, Monday, Feb. 13, 2023.


What's the situation in Ankara?

Whether Turkey's government has the bandwidth to handle NATO applications during a time of unprecedented crisis is debatable.

With a general election still scheduled for 14 May, Erdoğan had been using Sweden (and to a lesser extent, Finland) as a political straw man, painting the country as a place that harboured terrorists and as a risk to Turkey's national security.

If the election is somehow postponed, Erdogan might still need a bogeyman as a distraction to mounting political problems at home, a tactic that may not work so well a second time.

"The NATO news in Finland has not fully taken into account how this massive human catastrophe has changed the Turkish political landscape and discussion," explained Ozan Yanar, a Finnish politician who was born in Turkey, and served as a Greens MP from 2015-2019.

"Right now all the Turkish focus is on these earthquakes, and it will stay on earthquakes for a very long time," Yanar told Euronews.

Yanar said he thinks it unlikely any Turkish politician would try to shift the focus away from any official failings in earthquake preparedness or response, as they would find themselves "in the midst of huge political criticism."

"People are angry Turkey was not ready for this, and the state actions after the earthquakes have been very slow. People would be harshly disappointed and criticise the regime if they would start to speak about NATO, which is not the main topic in Turkey right now," said Yanar, who is running for parliament again in Finland's spring elections.

Rescue workers stand on a collapsed building in Adiyaman, southern Turkey, Monday, Feb. 13, 2023.


What are the chances of 1999-style earthquake diplomacy?

Paul Levin from Stockholm University thinks the chances are low that anything Sweden and Finland do to help with humanitarian aid will move the needle for Turkey on ratifying NATO membership.

"I just dont see any real impact in terms of public relations on the Turkish side," he said bluntly, describing a country currently in turmoil, with a "messy" political situation.

Quite the opposite: "If Erdogan sees he has been hurt by this, and sees he won't be able to win the election, he has a strong incentive to pospone it," said Levin.

"The more desperate he becomes politically, the more appealing those kind of tactics will be. I think he will do just about anything to get re-elected."

That could mean continuing to demonise Stockholm in particular, for failing to deport Kurds that Turkey says are terror suspects.

Ankara wants Finland and Sweden to deport some 130 "terrorists" before it will approve their bids to join NATO. Erdogan declared in January that the Nordic countries must "hand over your terrorists," with Sweden saying Turkey had made demands that could not -- and would not -- be met.

"Maybe it's a bit early to speculate what will happen, but so far I have not seen any of the positive outcomes of diplomacy," said Levin.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Trump Asserts Readiness for Further Strikes on Iran Amid Nuclear Tensions
Qatar Airways Clears Backlog of Passengers Following Missile Threats
Iran's Parliament Votes to Suspend Cooperation with Nuclear Watchdog
Trump Announces Upcoming US-Iran Meeting Amid Controversial Airstrikes
Trump Moves to Reshape Middle East Following Israel-Iran Conflict
NATO Leaders Endorse Plan for Increased Defence Spending
U.S. Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $65 Amid Market Volatility
“You Have 12 Hours to Flee”: Israeli Threat Campaign Targets Surviving Iranian Officials
Oman Set to Introduce Personal Income Tax, First in Gulf
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Trump Praises Iran’s ‘Very Weak’ Response After U.S. Strikes and Presses Israel to Pursue Peace
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
G7 Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Key Global Issues
Mass exodus in Tehran as millions try to flee following Trump’s evacuation order
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
Iran Conducts Ballistic Missile Launches Amid Heightened Tensions with Israel
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
Shock Within Iran’s Leadership: Khamenei’s Failed Plan to Launch 1,000 Missiles Against Israel
UK Deploys Jets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions
Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi Urges Overthrow of Khamenei Regime
Wreck of $17 Billion San José Galleon Identified Off Colombia After 300 Years
Iran Launches Extensive Missile Attack on Israel Following Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites
Israel Issues Ultimatum to Iran Over Potential Retaliation and Nuclear Facilities
Coinbase CEO Warns Bitcoin Could Supplant US Dollar Amid Mounting National Debt
Trump to Iran: Make a Deal — Sign or Die
Operation "Like a Lion": Israel Strikes Iran in Unprecedented Offensive
Israel Launches 'Operation Rising Lion' Targeting Iranian Nuclear and Military Sites
Israeli Forces Intercept Gaza-Bound Aid Vessel Carrying Greta Thunberg
×