Sudan's Rapid Support Forces: A Turning Point Amid Military Advances
As the Sudanese army claims control over key areas, questions arise about the future of the Rapid Support Forces and potential negotiations.
In the spring of 2023, Sudan was plunged into a violent conflict that erupted in mid-April between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The ensuing months saw a fluctuating balance of power, with both sides exchanging territorial control and facing significant losses.
On March 28, 2025, the Sudanese army announced airstrikes on RSF positions in El Fasher and declared full control over the capital, Khartoum.
This military victory has sparked urgent questions regarding its implications for the RSF: Does it signal a transformative shift toward their potential dissolution, or is it a temporary advantage in an ongoing conflict?
As the Sudanese army regained control of the presidential palace and key ministries in Khartoum, these events carry substantial meanings, reflecting the state’s attempt to re-establish its authority.
With the military's recent gains, discussions around a potential negotiation process have been revived, particularly regarding the RSF's defeat.
Any negotiation path will be heavily influenced by the current realities dictating the RSF's weakened position.
Compounding these military shifts are the complex security and political challenges that will persist beyond the cessation of hostilities.
The RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemeti), may seek political leverage amid the growing likelihood of his forces' collapse.
Nevertheless, his options are constrained by mounting legal challenges and increasing public disapproval.
Reports indicate that the RSF is facing significant logistical difficulties, including heavy casualties and shortages in supplies and equipment.
They have endured substantial strikes, including damage to ammunition depots in various states, and their legitimacy is eroding in light of international allegations of war crimes.
Though they maintain some tactical maneuverability, particularly due to support from neighboring Chad, labeling the RSF as entirely defeated may be premature.
The possibility emerges that the RSF could transition into a guerrilla warfare faction, leveraging tribal alliances and their expertise in traditional strongholds like Darfur.
Their ability to sustain operations will likely depend on maintaining diverse funding sources, which include commercial networks and gold smuggling.
The RSF may perceive recent military victories of the army as momentary tactical wins rather than indicative of a decisive strategic shift.
Despite the army's recovering key installations in Khartoum, including the presidential complex, represents both military success and an assertion of state authority.
This development potentially allows the army to restart some administrative and political tasks, albeit in a limited capacity.
The psychological impact of controlling such vital locations is significant, bolstering the morale of the army while diminishing that of the RSF.
However, achieving long-term stability in Sudan will necessitate a comprehensive political process that includes all stakeholders, paving the way for an effective governance structure and sustainable peace.
Questions remain about the future governance structure and mechanisms for national reconciliation, alongside the military’s capacity to orchestrate a political consensus that leads to enduring stability.
Observers are noting the need for dialogue options for the RSF should they fully acknowledge their defeat.
Understanding these options is complex and contingent upon rapidly changing realities on the ground.
Negotiating from a position of weakness implies that the RSF may no longer dictate terms, now seeking to limit the impact of their losses while attempting to retain some regional control.
Potential immediate negotiation avenues for the RSF could involve direct discussions with the Sudanese army, which might encompass terms for disarmament and the future of their remaining forces.
Moreover, external mediation through international or regional actors, such as the African Union or the United Nations, may provide a degree of protection or leverage for the RSF in negotiations.
The RSF might also explore altering alliances or seeking new regional and international support to shift the balance of power in their favor.
These possibilities are contingent upon the army's assessment of its dominant position and its willingness to avoid a prolonged guerrilla conflict with RSF remnants in various regions.
The post-war landscape raises critical questions regarding a political exit for Hemeti, whose situation becomes increasingly complex as his forces continue to falter amidst mounting accusations of war crimes.
The insistence of the Sudanese military and civilian political forces on his removal from power further complicates any prospective negotiation solution he might pursue, narrowing his options significantly.
The future appears bleak for a political resolution under current conditions, as stakeholders prioritize dismantling Hemeti's influence entirely.
Faced with potential criminal accountability from the International Criminal Court and widespread public resistance against his inclusion in any political transition, his prospects for a negotiated settlement remain tenuous.
Although convoluted, possible scenarios include negotiating an exile arrangement through regional intermediaries in exchange for a phased withdrawal of RSF forces, although finding a willing host nation remains uncertain given the current geopolitical landscape.
Following this brutal conflict, Sudan faces cascading security and economic challenges that necessitate a comprehensive and sustainable approach to achieve stability and recovery.
Two of the most pressing challenges include dismantling residual networks left by the war and rebuilding an economy severely impacted by conflict.
The intersections between security network dismantling and economic reconstruction present a complex yet interlinked challenge in Sudan, requiring a strategic and integrative response.
Focused efforts will need to prioritize security stabilization, capacity-building for governmental institutions, and executing economic reforms alongside fostering national reconciliation to achieve long-standing recovery and enduring peace.
The proliferation of arms among civilians and former combatants poses a substantial security threat, heightening the risk of violence and criminal activity.
Armed militias may emerge or evolve from this proliferation, amplifying the prospects of tribal conflicts and resource disputes.
The dismantling of armed networks in Sudan is fraught with challenges, including difficulties in pinpointing their locations due to concealment in remote or isolated regions, as well as the complexities of distinguishing between combatants and civilians.
The army and security forces also contend with resource and capability limitations in effectively countering these networks, and the likelihood of facing armed resistance from these groups increases the potential for renewed violence.
Success in dismantling these networks will require a comprehensive approach that combines military operations with reintegration programs and socio-economic development while enhancing regional and international collaboration to tackle transnational threats.
The war serves as a harsh reminder of the destructive dimensions of armed conflict and emphasizes the critical need to prevent future outbreaks.
Lessons drawn from this experience suggest that the establishment of robust and effective institutions is foundational for peace and sustainable development.
Given the current circumstances, there exists a probability of repeating similar crises in Sudan or elsewhere globally.
Contributing factors to this possibility include failures to address underlying conditions that fueled the conflict, with irresponsible external interventions potentially exacerbating tensions and undermining stability.
Difficult socioeconomic conditions, such as poverty and unemployment, may escalate social tensions, heightening the risk of violent eruptions.
To avert the recurrence of such tragedies, it is vital to bolster principles of good governance, justice, and equity while supporting broad and inclusive dialogue among all relevant stakeholders.
Addressing the root causes of conflict through political, economic, and social reforms while avoiding external interventions that may exacerbate tensions is essential.
The ensuing months saw a fluctuating balance of power, with both sides exchanging territorial control and facing significant losses.
On March 28, 2025, the Sudanese army announced airstrikes on RSF positions in El Fasher and declared full control over the capital, Khartoum.
This military victory has sparked urgent questions regarding its implications for the RSF: Does it signal a transformative shift toward their potential dissolution, or is it a temporary advantage in an ongoing conflict?
As the Sudanese army regained control of the presidential palace and key ministries in Khartoum, these events carry substantial meanings, reflecting the state’s attempt to re-establish its authority.
With the military's recent gains, discussions around a potential negotiation process have been revived, particularly regarding the RSF's defeat.
Any negotiation path will be heavily influenced by the current realities dictating the RSF's weakened position.
Compounding these military shifts are the complex security and political challenges that will persist beyond the cessation of hostilities.
The RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemeti), may seek political leverage amid the growing likelihood of his forces' collapse.
Nevertheless, his options are constrained by mounting legal challenges and increasing public disapproval.
Reports indicate that the RSF is facing significant logistical difficulties, including heavy casualties and shortages in supplies and equipment.
They have endured substantial strikes, including damage to ammunition depots in various states, and their legitimacy is eroding in light of international allegations of war crimes.
Though they maintain some tactical maneuverability, particularly due to support from neighboring Chad, labeling the RSF as entirely defeated may be premature.
The possibility emerges that the RSF could transition into a guerrilla warfare faction, leveraging tribal alliances and their expertise in traditional strongholds like Darfur.
Their ability to sustain operations will likely depend on maintaining diverse funding sources, which include commercial networks and gold smuggling.
The RSF may perceive recent military victories of the army as momentary tactical wins rather than indicative of a decisive strategic shift.
Despite the army's recovering key installations in Khartoum, including the presidential complex, represents both military success and an assertion of state authority.
This development potentially allows the army to restart some administrative and political tasks, albeit in a limited capacity.
The psychological impact of controlling such vital locations is significant, bolstering the morale of the army while diminishing that of the RSF.
However, achieving long-term stability in Sudan will necessitate a comprehensive political process that includes all stakeholders, paving the way for an effective governance structure and sustainable peace.
Questions remain about the future governance structure and mechanisms for national reconciliation, alongside the military’s capacity to orchestrate a political consensus that leads to enduring stability.
Observers are noting the need for dialogue options for the RSF should they fully acknowledge their defeat.
Understanding these options is complex and contingent upon rapidly changing realities on the ground.
Negotiating from a position of weakness implies that the RSF may no longer dictate terms, now seeking to limit the impact of their losses while attempting to retain some regional control.
Potential immediate negotiation avenues for the RSF could involve direct discussions with the Sudanese army, which might encompass terms for disarmament and the future of their remaining forces.
Moreover, external mediation through international or regional actors, such as the African Union or the United Nations, may provide a degree of protection or leverage for the RSF in negotiations.
The RSF might also explore altering alliances or seeking new regional and international support to shift the balance of power in their favor.
These possibilities are contingent upon the army's assessment of its dominant position and its willingness to avoid a prolonged guerrilla conflict with RSF remnants in various regions.
The post-war landscape raises critical questions regarding a political exit for Hemeti, whose situation becomes increasingly complex as his forces continue to falter amidst mounting accusations of war crimes.
The insistence of the Sudanese military and civilian political forces on his removal from power further complicates any prospective negotiation solution he might pursue, narrowing his options significantly.
The future appears bleak for a political resolution under current conditions, as stakeholders prioritize dismantling Hemeti's influence entirely.
Faced with potential criminal accountability from the International Criminal Court and widespread public resistance against his inclusion in any political transition, his prospects for a negotiated settlement remain tenuous.
Although convoluted, possible scenarios include negotiating an exile arrangement through regional intermediaries in exchange for a phased withdrawal of RSF forces, although finding a willing host nation remains uncertain given the current geopolitical landscape.
Following this brutal conflict, Sudan faces cascading security and economic challenges that necessitate a comprehensive and sustainable approach to achieve stability and recovery.
Two of the most pressing challenges include dismantling residual networks left by the war and rebuilding an economy severely impacted by conflict.
The intersections between security network dismantling and economic reconstruction present a complex yet interlinked challenge in Sudan, requiring a strategic and integrative response.
Focused efforts will need to prioritize security stabilization, capacity-building for governmental institutions, and executing economic reforms alongside fostering national reconciliation to achieve long-standing recovery and enduring peace.
The proliferation of arms among civilians and former combatants poses a substantial security threat, heightening the risk of violence and criminal activity.
Armed militias may emerge or evolve from this proliferation, amplifying the prospects of tribal conflicts and resource disputes.
The dismantling of armed networks in Sudan is fraught with challenges, including difficulties in pinpointing their locations due to concealment in remote or isolated regions, as well as the complexities of distinguishing between combatants and civilians.
The army and security forces also contend with resource and capability limitations in effectively countering these networks, and the likelihood of facing armed resistance from these groups increases the potential for renewed violence.
Success in dismantling these networks will require a comprehensive approach that combines military operations with reintegration programs and socio-economic development while enhancing regional and international collaboration to tackle transnational threats.
The war serves as a harsh reminder of the destructive dimensions of armed conflict and emphasizes the critical need to prevent future outbreaks.
Lessons drawn from this experience suggest that the establishment of robust and effective institutions is foundational for peace and sustainable development.
Given the current circumstances, there exists a probability of repeating similar crises in Sudan or elsewhere globally.
Contributing factors to this possibility include failures to address underlying conditions that fueled the conflict, with irresponsible external interventions potentially exacerbating tensions and undermining stability.
Difficult socioeconomic conditions, such as poverty and unemployment, may escalate social tensions, heightening the risk of violent eruptions.
To avert the recurrence of such tragedies, it is vital to bolster principles of good governance, justice, and equity while supporting broad and inclusive dialogue among all relevant stakeholders.
Addressing the root causes of conflict through political, economic, and social reforms while avoiding external interventions that may exacerbate tensions is essential.
