Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

COP26: Away from summit, global demand for oil and gas means BP remains a 'cash machine'

COP26: Away from summit, global demand for oil and gas means BP remains a 'cash machine'

Britain's energy giants have set out ambitious targets to move towards renewables but they are not welcome at the Glasgow climate meeting - and are enjoying a sharp recovery in demand for their products.

It may strike some as deeply ironic that, while heads of state, scientists, charities and environmental activists rub shoulders at the COP26 summit, some of the biggest players involved in the transition to net zero are not in Glasgow.

While the likes of Turin Polytechnic, Bristol City Council, the Omega Institute for Holistic Studies and the US Presbyterian Church are all there, there is no room for some of the world's biggest oil and gas companies.

This is curious because, were the likes of Chevron and Exxon Mobil to set sufficiently bold targets for carbon reduction, it would have far more impact than the targets set out by many of the individual governments attending.

BP's chief executive Bernard Looney has set out ambitious net-zero plans


Most surprising of all is the omission of the UK's big two oil and gas producers, BP and Royal Dutch Shell, which have both set out ambitious plans to reduce their carbon footprint and transition away from oil and gas towards renewables.

Both have backed their promises with action.

Earlier this year, for example, Shell said it would dispose of its US shale assets, selling them in September to ConocoPhillips.

These moves have, it is fair to say, put both in hot water with elements of their shareholder base.

BP, for example, encountered much scepticism from investors when, just before the global pandemic, it announced plans to go net zero by 2050.

More recently, Shell has faced calls from an activist investor, the hedge fund Third Point, to break itself up, separating its cash-generative fossil fuel operations from its businesses investing in renewables and carbon reduction technologies.

Shell boss Ben van Beurden said the company was told it was not welcome at COP26


So it is odd indeed that the COP26 organisers found no room to include companies actually being criticised for having similar objectives to those of the summit itself.

The pair were apparently excluded because the Science Based Targets initiative, a third party supported by the UN and some non-profit organisations, judged that their emissions reduction targets were not credible.

Ben van Beurden, Shell's chief executive, explained last week: "We were told that we were not welcome, so we will not be there."

The organisers may also be judging that neither should be in Glasgow because they have made no secret of the fact that, while they are committed to reducing their carbon footprint, hydrocarbon production will remain a core part of their business for years to come.

That reflects that, in the absence of an enormous fall in the cost of transitioning away from them, the world will still be consuming oil and gas in significant quantities well into the middle of the century.

That demand for oil and gas continues to outweigh supply was borne out today by BP's latest financial results.

At a headline level, BP reported a loss of $2.5bn for the three months to the end of September, which was an accounting technicality reflecting the fact it must mark the price of contracts used to hedge the value of liquefied natural gas shipments to the price in the market while not actually doing the same for the value of its assets.

More importantly, on an underlying basis, replacement cost profit - the industry's preferred measurement - rose 18% to $3.32bn compared with the second quarter.

That was up from $86m in the same period last year and was significantly better than analysts had been expecting.

It is the third quarter in a row that BP's results have beaten expectations and mainly reflects stronger oil and gas prices.

Brent crude traded at an average of $73.51 per barrel during the three months, up from $68.97 from April to June and up from $42.94 in the three months to the end of September last year.

BP breaks even at a crude price of $40 a barrel.

No wonder, then, that Bernard Looney, the chief executive, described BP as resembling a "cash machine" when its core products are trading at these levels.

Operating cash flow during the quarter was just shy of $6bn.

And things on that front may yet get better.

Mr Looney said demand for oil was already back above the pre-pandemic level of 100 million barrels per day - and that is even before global aviation has recovered.

Analysts at the investment bank Bank of America today said they expect a price of $120 per barrel by June next year.

BP's cash is being deployed in a number of ways.

One is to reduce debt which, during the last 12 months, has fallen from $40.38bn to $31.97bn and which has now come down for six consecutive quarters.

Some will go on share buybacks: BP announced a further $1.25bn worth of these today although, with the dividend being held at the previous level, the shares, which are up by 39% since the start of the year, fell by more than 2%.

And, of course, it is going on investment.

BP's capital expenditure is expected to be between $14-$16bn next year.

Not all of that will be on renewables.

Mr Looney stressed today that investors should not assume that, just because BP is aiming to cut emissions, it would be making no new investments into hydrocarbon projects.

Oil demand is already back above 100 million barrels per day - even before global aviation recovers


Interestingly, Mr Looney - who said he was "not hearing" calls from investors to separate its hydrocarbons operations from its renewables operations - was at pains to scotch the suggestion that BP is only interested in building the latter.

He told analysts: "I see the characterisation in some media as BP moving from oil to renewables and that's not actually the case.

"Yes, we are building a renewables business.

"But we've always said, we're not building a renewables business just for renewables.

"We're building a renewables business to be part of an integrated energy value chain that goes all the way from the production of energy into, in some cases, people's cars in terms of electrons, or into hydrogen, or into whatever it is that you wish to do with it.

"It's a focusing of oil. It's a doubling of convenience, including EV [electric vehicle] charging, $5bn to $10bn. And it's an investment in renewables."

If that sounds complicated, that is because it is.

The transition away from fossil fuels is not as black and white as some perhaps think.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
The negotiation teams of Trump and Putin meet directly, establishing the groundwork for a significant advance.
Israeli Minister Urges Hamas to Surrender and Depart from Gaza.
Iran Considers Moving Its Capital Due to Urban Difficulties
Israel and Hamas Finalize Sixth Exchange of Hostages and Prisoners During Continuing Gaza Ceasefire
Leaders of BRICS to Gather in Rio de Janeiro for July Summit
Muhsin Hendricks, a trailblazing openly gay imam, was killed in South Africa.
Trump's special envoy for hostage affairs cautions Hamas against challenging Trump before Saturday's deadline.
Two British citizens apprehended in Iran amid escalating tensions.
Israel Issues Threat of Military Action as Hostage Negotiations with Hamas Continue
Hamas Coordinates Worldwide Solidarity Marches in Reaction to U.S. and Israeli Initiative
Israel Warns of Ending Gaza Ceasefire Due to Hostage Situation
King Abdullah II Dismisses US Proposal to Relocate Palestinians, Commits to Welcoming Gaza Children.
Lebanon Installs New Government with Hezbollah's Impact on Key Ministries
Report: Iran Attempted to Assassinate Trump During Election Campaign
U.S. Authorizes $7.4 Billion Arms Sale to Israel
Iran's Supreme Leader Rejects Nuclear Negotiations with the U.S.
UN Chief Denounces Trump's Gaza Plan, Cautions Against Ethnic Cleansing
Pressure Intensifies for a Free Trade Agreement between the UK and GCC in Light of Economic Difficulties
Israel to Withdraw from UN Human Rights Council Due to Accusations of Anti-Semitism
EU Reaffirms Gaza's Essential Role in Future Palestinian State Following Trump's Proposal
Iranian Currency Reaches All-Time Low Amid US 'Maximum Pressure' Initiative.
UN Reaffirms Ban on Deportation from Occupied Territories Amid US Gaza Proposal
Palestinians Fear Repeat of 'Nakba' Amid Ongoing Crisis in Gaza
UAE Aids in the Exchange of 300 Prisoners Between Russia and Ukraine
Egypt Seeks Global Backing for Two-State Solution Following US Proposal for Gaza Plan
Trump's Suggestion to 'Seize Control' of Gaza Represents a Significant Shift in US Policy
French President is the first EU leader to extend congratulations to the new Syrian President.
Tunisian President Appoints New Finance Minister Amid Economic Crisis
Trump Suggests U.S. 'Takeover' of Gaza, Prompting Global Worries
Trump's Proposal for Gaza Provokes Global Debate
President Trump Suggests Moving Gaza's Palestinian Population
Aga Khan IV, Spiritual Leader and Philanthropist, Dies at 88
Erdogan and Syria's Sharaa Talk About Collaboration to Counter Kurdish Militants
Trump Suggests U.S. Control of Gaza Strip Amid Ongoing Conflict
Trump Resumes 'Maximum Pressure' Strategy to Limit Iran's Oil Exports.
Ex-British Soldier Sentenced for Espionage on Behalf of Iran and Fleeing from Prison
Gazans in Egypt Reject Displacement, Struggle with Return to War-Torn Home
Queen Rania Urges Protection of Children’s Rights at Vatican Summit
Hamas Officials Ready to Begin Negotiations for Phase Two of Gaza Truce
Trump Expresses Caution Over Gaza Ceasefire as Netanyahu Visits Washington
Oman to Host 18th Indian Ocean Conference on Maritime Security and Trade
Emir of Kuwait Meets BlackRock CEO for Talks on Investment Opportunities
Queen Rania of Jordan Calls for Global Action on Children’s Rights at Vatican Summit
Egyptian President El-Sisi Invited for White House Meeting Following Jordanian King’s Visit
Queen Rania Calls for Protection of Children’s Rights at Vatican Summit
Israeli Military Operations Continue on Lebanon Border Amid Ceasefire Tensions
Israeli Hostage's Release Highlights Uncertainty Over Family's Fate
Israeli Military Operations Escalate in Southern Lebanon Amid Hezbollah Tensions
Zayed Award for Human Fraternity Announces 2025 Honorees
Kuwait Anticipates a 12% Increase in Budget Deficit for the 2025-2026 Fiscal Year
×