Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Thursday, Nov 27, 2025

Explainer: Why Libya's election has collapsed and what comes next

Explainer: Why Libya's election has collapsed and what comes next

Libya said on Wednesday its planned election would not take place but it has not set a new date or worked out how to move forward to avoid a return to conflict.

This sets out the main issues and what might happen next.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?


Libya fell apart after the 2011 uprising against Muammar Gaddafi and split in 2014 between warring eastern and western factions. The peace process follows the collapse in 2020 of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar’s 14-month assault on Tripoli.

Eastern and southern areas are held by Haftar’s LNA, with western areas including Tripoli held by various armed forces that backed the government there.

A year ago the United Nations held talks between delegates from all factions to chart a path forward. They agreed to install a unity government to rule until simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections on Dec. 24.

WHY HAS THE ELECTION BEEN DELAYED?


Libya’s old institutions, along with major factions and potential candidates, did not agree on rules for the election including its schedule, what powers the new president or parliament would have, and who could run.

Parliament speaker Aguila Saleh, who is a presidential candidate, issued a law setting a first round of the presidential election for Dec. 24 with a second round run-off and the parliamentary election to come afterwards.

Putting the presidential vote first meant the election came down to a winner-takes-all contest between candidates from violently opposing factions.

Other political institutions rejected the law, accusing Saleh of passing it without any proper parliamentary process.

However, Saleh’s law formed the basis of the electoral process and disputes over it grew wider as very divisive candidates entered the contest.

WHO ARE THE MAIN CANDIDATES?


Some 98 people candidates registered for the presidential race – including some who were seen as unacceptable in parts of the country or to powerful armed factions.

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi registered despite his conviction in absentia by a Tripoli court in 2015 of war crimes during the rebellion that ousted his father Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

Eastern commander Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army waged a destructive 14-month offensive against Tripoli, is rejected as a possible president by armed factions and many people in western areas.

Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, the interim prime minister, had promised not to stand for election when he was appointed. Other candidates say his presence on the ballot is unfair.

Without clear agreement on the rules, let alone on who would enforce them or adjudicate disputes, the electoral commission, the parliament’s election committee and the fragmented judiciary were unable to agree a final list of eligible candidates.

WERE THERE OTHER PROBLEMS?


Most of Libya is controlled by armed forces that back rival candidates and without extensive independent monitoring there would likely be claims of fraud or voter intimidation.

Two incidents last month showed the risks. Fighters closed a court to stop Gaddafi’s lawyers lodging an appeal against his disqualification. And the electoral commission said fighters had raided several of its offices, stealing voting cards.

A disputed result could rapidly unravel the peace process, replicating the aftermath of the 2014 election when warring factions backed rival administrations.

WHAT COMES NEXT?


The electoral commission has suggested a one-month delay but the parliament may seek a longer one. Negotiations continue among candidates, Libya’s political institutions and foreign powers.

A short delay may not be enough to resolve the arguments that derailed Friday’s vote. However, fixing those problems could require more time, raising questions over whether the interim government could stay in place.

The future of Dbeibah and his government during the coming period has rapidly become one of the main topics of dispute among rival camps.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS OF ANOTHER CONFLICT?


If the peace process falls apart there is a risk that eastern factions could again form a breakaway government at war with Dbeibah’s administration in Tripoli. However, analysts think that is unlikely for now.

The more immediate risk is that a political crisis could add fuel to local disputes between rival armed groups that have mobilised in western Libya in recent weeks, leading to a new round of fighting inside the capital.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Arabia’s SAMAI Initiative Surpasses One-Million-Citizen Milestone in National AI Upskilling Drive
Saudi Arabia’s Specialty Coffee Market Set to Surge as Demand Soars and New Exhibition Drops in December
Saudi Arabia Moves to Open Two New Alcohol Stores for Foreigners Under Vision 2030 Reform
Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambitions Gain Momentum — but Water, Talent and Infrastructure Pose Major Hurdles
Tensions Surface in Trump-MBS Talks as Saudi Pushes Back on Israel Normalisation
Saudi Arabia Signals Major Maritime Crack-Down on Houthi Routes in Red Sea
Italy and Saudi Arabia Seal Over 20 Strategic Deals at Business Forum in Riyadh
COP30 Ends Without Fossil Fuel Phase-Out as US, Saudi Arabia and Russia Align in Obstruction Role
Saudi-Portuguese Economic Horizons Expand Through Strategic Business Council
DHL Commits $150 Million for Landmark Logistics Hub in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Aramco Weighs Disposals Amid $10 Billion-Plus Asset Sales Discussion
Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince for Major Defence and Investment Agreements
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
Riyadh Metro Records Over One Hundred Million Journeys as Saudi Capital Accelerates Transit Era
Trump’s Grand Saudi Welcome Highlights U.S.–Riyadh Pivot as Israel Watches Warily
U.S. Set to Sell F-35 Jets to Saudi Arabia in Major Strategic Shift
Saudi Arabia Doubles Down on U.S. Partnership in Strategic Move
Saudi Arabia Charts Tech and Nuclear Leap Under Crown Prince’s U.S. Visit
Trump Elevates Saudi Arabia to Major Non-NATO Ally Amid Defense Deal
Trump Elevates Saudi Arabia to Major Non-NATO Ally as MBS Visit Yields Deepened Ties
Iran Appeals to Saudi Arabia to Mediate Restart of U.S. Nuclear Talks
Musk, Barra and Ford Join Trump in Lavish White House Dinner for Saudi Crown Prince
Lawmaker Seeks Declassification of ‘Shocking’ 2019 Call Between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince
US and Saudi Arabia Forge Strategic Defence Pact Featuring F-35 Sale and $1 Trillion Investment Pledge
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Emerges as Key Contender in Warner Bros. Discovery Sale
Trump Secures Sweeping U.S.–Saudi Agreements on Jets, Technology and Massive Investment
Detroit CEOs Join White House Dinner as U.S.–Saudi Auto Deal Accelerates
Netanyahu Secures U.S. Assurance That Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge Will Remain Despite Saudi F-35 Deal
Ronaldo Joins Trump and Saudi Crown Prince’s Gala Amid U.S.–Gulf Tech and Investment Surge
U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum Sees U.S. Corporate Titans and Saudi Royalty Forge Billion-Dollar Ties
Elon Musk’s xAI to Deploy 500-Megawatt Saudi Data Centre with State-backed Partner HUMAIN
U.S. Clears Export of Advanced AI Chips to Saudi Arabia and UAE Amid Strategic Tech Partnership
xAI Selects Saudi Data-Centre as First Customer of Nvidia-Backed Humain Project
President Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington Amid Strategic Deal Talks
Saudi Crown Prince to Press Trump for Direct U.S. Role in Ending Sudan War
Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince: Five Key Takeaways from the White House Meeting
Trump Firmly Defends Saudi Crown Prince Over Khashoggi Murder Amid Washington Visit
Trump Backs Saudi Crown Prince Over Khashoggi Killing Amid White House Visit
Trump Publicly Defends Saudi Crown Prince Over Khashoggi Killing During Washington Visit
President Donald Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at White House to Seal Major Defence and Investment Deals
Saudi Arabia’s Solar Surge Signals Unlikely Shift in Global Oil Powerhouse
Saudi Crown Prince Receives Letter from Iranian President Ahead of U.S. Visit
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Begins Washington Visit to Cement Long-Term U.S. Alliance
Saudi Crown Prince Meets Trump in Washington to Deepen Defence, AI and Nuclear Ties
Saudi Arabia Accelerates Global Mining Strategy to Build a New Economic Pillar
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Arrives in Washington to Reset U.S.–Saudi Strategic Alliance
Saudi-Israeli Normalisation Deal Looms, But Riyadh Insists on Proceeding After Israeli Elections
Saudis Prioritise US Defence Pact and AI Deals, While Israel Normalisation Takes Back Seat
Saudi Crown Prince’s Washington Visit Aims to Advance Defence, AI and Nuclear Cooperation
Saudi Delegation Strengthens EU–MENA Security Cooperation in Lisbon
×