Scientists Warn: Flu Most Likely Cause of Next Pandemic
A group of scientists has emphasized that influenza is the pathogen most likely to cause a new pandemic in the near future.
According to a report by The Guardian, a global survey revealed that 57% of leading disease experts now believe a strain of the influenza virus will spark the next global pandemic.
Johan Salmanton Garcia from the University of Cologne, who conducted the study, mentioned that the belief in influenza as the biggest pandemic threat is based on long-standing research showing its constant evolution and mutation. "Every winter, flu emerges and spreads. These outbreaks could be described as mini-pandemics that are somewhat controlled because the various strains involved are not highly dangerous. However, this may not always be the case," he added.
Details of the study, which garnered input from 187 leading scientists, will be unveiled at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) conference in Barcelona next weekend.
Following influenza, the next most likely cause of a pandemic is a virus referred to as "Disease X" by 21% of the surveyed scientists. Disease X, a term coined by the World Health Organization (WHO), represents infectious diseases currently unknown but could cause an epidemic or pandemic if they were to spread across multiple countries. Scientists warn it could be 20 times more lethal than COVID-19.
Some scientists still see the coronavirus as a threat, with 15% of the study's respondents considering it the most likely cause of a near-future pandemic. Meanwhile, other deadly pathogens like the Lassa, Nipah, Ebola, and Zika viruses were viewed as serious global threats by only 1% to 2% of the scientists.
Garcia stated, "Based on these findings, we can deduce that influenza poses the first threat in terms of its pandemic spread capability, from the perspective of the vast majority of world scientists."
Last week, the WHO raised concerns over the worrying spread of the H5N1 bird flu strain, which has caused millions of avian influenza cases worldwide. Recently, the virus has spread to mammals, including domestic cattle in the United States, increasing fears over potential risks to humans. Daniel Goldhill from the Royal Veterinary College in Hatfield told Nature magazine that the more mammal species the virus infects, the higher the chance it could evolve into a strain dangerous to humans.
Virologist Ed Hutchinson from the University of Glasgow described the appearance of the H5N1 virus in cattle as a "shocking surprise."
The potential for an influenza pandemic is a concern, although scientists have assured that vaccines have been developed against many strains, including H5N1.
Johan Salmanton Garcia from the University of Cologne, who conducted the study, mentioned that the belief in influenza as the biggest pandemic threat is based on long-standing research showing its constant evolution and mutation. "Every winter, flu emerges and spreads. These outbreaks could be described as mini-pandemics that are somewhat controlled because the various strains involved are not highly dangerous. However, this may not always be the case," he added.
Details of the study, which garnered input from 187 leading scientists, will be unveiled at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) conference in Barcelona next weekend.
Following influenza, the next most likely cause of a pandemic is a virus referred to as "Disease X" by 21% of the surveyed scientists. Disease X, a term coined by the World Health Organization (WHO), represents infectious diseases currently unknown but could cause an epidemic or pandemic if they were to spread across multiple countries. Scientists warn it could be 20 times more lethal than COVID-19.
Some scientists still see the coronavirus as a threat, with 15% of the study's respondents considering it the most likely cause of a near-future pandemic. Meanwhile, other deadly pathogens like the Lassa, Nipah, Ebola, and Zika viruses were viewed as serious global threats by only 1% to 2% of the scientists.
Garcia stated, "Based on these findings, we can deduce that influenza poses the first threat in terms of its pandemic spread capability, from the perspective of the vast majority of world scientists."
Last week, the WHO raised concerns over the worrying spread of the H5N1 bird flu strain, which has caused millions of avian influenza cases worldwide. Recently, the virus has spread to mammals, including domestic cattle in the United States, increasing fears over potential risks to humans. Daniel Goldhill from the Royal Veterinary College in Hatfield told Nature magazine that the more mammal species the virus infects, the higher the chance it could evolve into a strain dangerous to humans.
Virologist Ed Hutchinson from the University of Glasgow described the appearance of the H5N1 virus in cattle as a "shocking surprise."
The potential for an influenza pandemic is a concern, although scientists have assured that vaccines have been developed against many strains, including H5N1.
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Translated by AI