Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Feb 08, 2026

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

What to make of the dozens of classified US Defence Department documents - maps, charts and photographs - now circulating on the internet?

Complete with timelines and dozens of impenetrable military acronyms, the documents, some of them marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine.

They tell of the casualties suffered on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each and, crucially, what their relative strengths are likely to be when Ukraine decides to launch its much-anticipated spring offensive.

How real are these printed pages, unfolded and photographed, possibly on someone's dining room table? And what do they tell us, or the Kremlin, that we did not already know?

First things first: this is the biggest leak of secret American information on the war in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion 14 months ago. Some of the documents are as much as six weeks old, but the implications are huge.

Pentagon officials are quoted as saying the documents are real.

Information on at least one of them appears to have been crudely altered in a later version, but out of a dump of as many as 100 documents, that seems a relatively minor detail.

BBC News has reviewed more than 20 of the documents. They include detailed accounts of the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it puts together a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could begin within weeks.

It says when the brigades will be ready and lists all the tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery pieces that are being provided by Ukraine's Western allies.

But it notes that "equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness".

Ukrainian soldiers fire a German howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000


One map includes a "mud-frozen ground timeline", assessing ground conditions across eastern Ukraine as spring progresses.

After a winter that has tested Ukraine's air defences to the limit, there's also a sobering analysis of Kyiv's diminishing air defence capability, as it seeks to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, critical infrastructure and its frontline troops.

Not only do the leaked documents say a lot about the state of Ukraine's military - they also talk about some of Washington's other allies. From Israel to South Korea, the documents reveal internal debates those countries are having about Ukraine and other sensitive issues.

Some of the documents are marked top secret, others to be shared only with America's closest intelligence allies.


How much of this is new?


A lot of the detail here is familiar. There's just a lot more of it, and it's all in one place.

Take casualty figures. It comes as little surprise to learn that the US estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.

The equivalent figure for Ukraine's losses - between 124,500 and 131,000 - is also in line with ballpark figures briefed to journalists in recent weeks.

In both cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" in the figures, due to gaps in information, operational security and deliberate attempts, probably by both sides, to mislead.

Tellingly, this is the one place where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it look as if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.

A version which appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site took the number of Ukrainians "killed in action" ("16k-17.5k") and put those on the Russian ledger, while flipping the numbers on the Ukrainian side so they read "61k - 71.5k".

All of which brings us to the question of who leaked the documents, and why?


'Here, have some leaked documents'


The story of how the documents found their way from the messaging platform Discord, to 4Chan and Telegram, has already been told by Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence group Bellingcat.

Mr Toler says it has not yet been possible to uncover the original source of the leaks, but charts their appearance on a messaging platform popular with gamers in early March.

On 4 March, following an argument about the war in Ukraine on a Discord server frequented by players of the computer game Minecraft, one user wrote "here, have some leaked documents", before posting 10 of them.

It is an unusual, but hardly unique form of leak.

In 2019, ahead of the UK general election, documents relating to US-UK trade relations appeared on Reddit, 4Chan and other sites.

At the time, Reddit said the unredacted documents had originated in Russia.

In another case, last year, players of the online game War Thunder repeatedly posted sensitive military documents, apparently in an effort to win arguments among themselves.

The latest leak is more sensitive, and potentially damaging.

Ukraine has zealously guarded its "operational security" and cannot be happy that such sensitive material has appeared at such a critical moment.

Ukraine's spring offensive could represent a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government to alter dynamics on the battlefield and set conditions for peace talks later.

In Kyiv, officials have spoken about a possible disinformation campaign by Russia.

Other military bloggers have suggested the opposite: that it is all part of a Western plot to mislead Russian commanders.

Crucially, there is nothing in the documents leaked so far that points to the direction or thrust of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

The Kremlin ought to have a pretty good idea already of the scope of Ukraine's preparations (although Moscow's intelligence failures have been much in evidence throughout the war), but Kyiv needs to keep its enemy guessing about how the campaign will unfold, in order to maximise the chances of success.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Syria and Saudi Arabia Seal Multibillion-Dollar Investment Agreements to Drive Post-War Economic Reconstruction
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
Foreign Governments and Corporations Spend Millions with Trump-Linked Lobbying Firm in Washington
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
Saudi Arabia Quietly Allows Wealthy Foreign Residents to Buy Alcohol, Signalling Policy Shift
US and Iran to Begin Nuclear Talks in Oman
China unveils plans for a 'Death Star' capable of launching missile strikes from space
Investigation Launched at Winter Olympics Over Ski Jumpers Injecting Hyaluronic Acid
U.S. State Department Issues Urgent Travel Warning for Citizens to Leave Iran Immediately
Wall Street Erases All Gains of 2026; Bitcoin Plummets 14% to $63,000
Eighty-one-year-old man in the United States fatally shoots Uber driver after scam threat
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Begins Strategic Gulf Tour with Saudi Arabia Visit
Dubai Awards Tunnel Contract for Dubai Loop as Boring Company Plans Pilot Network
Five Key Takeaways From President Erdoğan’s Strategic Visit to Saudi Arabia
AI Invented “Hot Springs” — Tourists Arrived and Were Shocked
Erdoğan’s Saudi Arabia Visit Focuses on Trade, Investment and Strategic Cooperation
Germany and Saudi Arabia Move to Deepen Energy Cooperation Amid Global Transition
Saudi Aviation Records Historic Passenger Traffic in 2025 and Sets Sights on Further Growth in 2026
Tech Market Shifts and AI Investment Surge Drive Global Innovation and Layoffs
Global Shifts in War, Trade, Energy and Security Mark Major International Developments
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
The AI Hiring Doom Loop — Algorithmic Recruiting Filters Out Top Talent and Rewards Average or Fake Candidates
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Powell Faces DOJ Criminal Investigation During 2026 Decision
Putin’s Four-Year Ukraine Invasion Cost: Russia’s Mass Casualty Attrition and the Donbas Security-Guarantee Tradeoff
Saudi Crown Prince Tells Iranian President: Kingdom Will Not Host Attacks Against Iran
U.S. Central Command Announces Regional Air Exercise as Iran Unveils Drone Carrier Footage
Trump Defends Saudi Crown Prince in Heated Exchange After Reporter Questions Khashoggi Murder and 9/11 Links
Saudi Stocks Rally as Kingdom Prepares to Fully Open Capital Market to Global Investors
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
Saudi Arabia scales back Neom as The Line is redesigned and Trojena downsized
Saudi Industrial Group Completes One Point Three Billion Dollar Acquisition of South Africa’s Barloworld
Saudi-Backed LIV Golf Confirms Return to Trump National Bedminster for 2026 Season
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
Trump Administration’s Iran Military Buildup and Sanctions Campaign Puts Deterrence Credibility on the Line
Tech Brief: AI Compute, Chips, and Platform Power Moves Driving Today’s Market Narrative
NATO’s Stress Test Under Trump: Alliance Credibility, Burden-Sharing, and the Fight Over Strategic Territory
Saudi Arabia’s Careful Balancing Act in Relations with Israel Amid Regional and Domestic Pressures
Greenland, Gaza, and Global Leverage: Today’s 10 Power Stories Shaping Markets and Security
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Prince William to Make Official Visit to Saudi Arabia in February
Saudi Arabia Advances Ambitious Artificial River Mega-Project to Transform Water Security
Saudi Crown Prince and Syrian President Discuss Stabilisation, Reconstruction and Regional Ties in Riyadh Talks
Mohammed bin Salman Confronts the ‘Iranian Moment’ as Saudi Leadership Faces Regional Test
Cybercrime, Inc.: When Crime Becomes an Economy. How the World Accidentally Built a Twenty-Trillion-Dollar Criminal Economy
×