Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Tuesday, Mar 24, 2026

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

What to make of the dozens of classified US Defence Department documents - maps, charts and photographs - now circulating on the internet?

Complete with timelines and dozens of impenetrable military acronyms, the documents, some of them marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine.

They tell of the casualties suffered on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each and, crucially, what their relative strengths are likely to be when Ukraine decides to launch its much-anticipated spring offensive.

How real are these printed pages, unfolded and photographed, possibly on someone's dining room table? And what do they tell us, or the Kremlin, that we did not already know?

First things first: this is the biggest leak of secret American information on the war in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion 14 months ago. Some of the documents are as much as six weeks old, but the implications are huge.

Pentagon officials are quoted as saying the documents are real.

Information on at least one of them appears to have been crudely altered in a later version, but out of a dump of as many as 100 documents, that seems a relatively minor detail.

BBC News has reviewed more than 20 of the documents. They include detailed accounts of the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it puts together a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could begin within weeks.

It says when the brigades will be ready and lists all the tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery pieces that are being provided by Ukraine's Western allies.

But it notes that "equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness".

Ukrainian soldiers fire a German howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000


One map includes a "mud-frozen ground timeline", assessing ground conditions across eastern Ukraine as spring progresses.

After a winter that has tested Ukraine's air defences to the limit, there's also a sobering analysis of Kyiv's diminishing air defence capability, as it seeks to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, critical infrastructure and its frontline troops.

Not only do the leaked documents say a lot about the state of Ukraine's military - they also talk about some of Washington's other allies. From Israel to South Korea, the documents reveal internal debates those countries are having about Ukraine and other sensitive issues.

Some of the documents are marked top secret, others to be shared only with America's closest intelligence allies.


How much of this is new?


A lot of the detail here is familiar. There's just a lot more of it, and it's all in one place.

Take casualty figures. It comes as little surprise to learn that the US estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.

The equivalent figure for Ukraine's losses - between 124,500 and 131,000 - is also in line with ballpark figures briefed to journalists in recent weeks.

In both cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" in the figures, due to gaps in information, operational security and deliberate attempts, probably by both sides, to mislead.

Tellingly, this is the one place where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it look as if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.

A version which appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site took the number of Ukrainians "killed in action" ("16k-17.5k") and put those on the Russian ledger, while flipping the numbers on the Ukrainian side so they read "61k - 71.5k".

All of which brings us to the question of who leaked the documents, and why?


'Here, have some leaked documents'


The story of how the documents found their way from the messaging platform Discord, to 4Chan and Telegram, has already been told by Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence group Bellingcat.

Mr Toler says it has not yet been possible to uncover the original source of the leaks, but charts their appearance on a messaging platform popular with gamers in early March.

On 4 March, following an argument about the war in Ukraine on a Discord server frequented by players of the computer game Minecraft, one user wrote "here, have some leaked documents", before posting 10 of them.

It is an unusual, but hardly unique form of leak.

In 2019, ahead of the UK general election, documents relating to US-UK trade relations appeared on Reddit, 4Chan and other sites.

At the time, Reddit said the unredacted documents had originated in Russia.

In another case, last year, players of the online game War Thunder repeatedly posted sensitive military documents, apparently in an effort to win arguments among themselves.

The latest leak is more sensitive, and potentially damaging.

Ukraine has zealously guarded its "operational security" and cannot be happy that such sensitive material has appeared at such a critical moment.

Ukraine's spring offensive could represent a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government to alter dynamics on the battlefield and set conditions for peace talks later.

In Kyiv, officials have spoken about a possible disinformation campaign by Russia.

Other military bloggers have suggested the opposite: that it is all part of a Western plot to mislead Russian commanders.

Crucially, there is nothing in the documents leaked so far that points to the direction or thrust of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

The Kremlin ought to have a pretty good idea already of the scope of Ukraine's preparations (although Moscow's intelligence failures have been much in evidence throughout the war), but Kyiv needs to keep its enemy guessing about how the campaign will unfold, in order to maximise the chances of success.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Trump to Deliver Keynote Address at Saudi-Backed Investment Summit in Miami Beach
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Press Ahead With Energy Agreements Despite Regional Conflict
Can Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port Replace Hormuz? Capacity Limits Test Critical Oil Lifeline
Saudi Arabia Detects Ballistic Missiles as Regional Tensions Escalate in Gulf
Saudi Aramco Reduces Oil Shipments to Asia for Second Consecutive Month
Saudi Aramco Reduces Oil Shipments to Asia for Second Consecutive Month
Saudi Arabia and UAE Push Ahead With Major Deals Despite Iran-Related Uncertainty
Formula One Cancels Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Pakistan Signals Strategic Realignment Toward Saudi Arabia Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Shipments to Asia as Regional Conflict Disrupts Key Export Routes
Saudi Arabia Moves to Contain Regional Escalation as Houthis Signal Readiness to Join Conflict
Saudi Arabia Signals Independent Nuclear Strategy Unaffected by Iran Tensions
Saudi Arabia Signals Independent Nuclear Strategy Unaffected by Iran Tensions
Egypt Reaffirms Strong Support for Saudi Arabia as Sisi Condemns Iran’s Gulf Attacks
Saudi Stocks Close Higher as Tadawul Index Gains 0.55% on Broad Sector Strength
Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles Toward Riyadh as Gulf Conflict Intensifies
Barcelona Midfielder Marc Casadó Attracts €40 Million Interest from Saudi Clubs
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise as Saudi Arabia Opens Key Air Base to US Forces
Saudi Arabia Confronts Strategic Turning Point as Iran Conflict Redefines Regional Alliances
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missile as Two Others Land in Remote Area Without Casualties
Saudi Expulsion of Iranian Military Attaché Raises Doubts Over Fragile Riyadh–Tehran Rapprochement
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic East–West Pipeline Gains Global Attention as Energy Routes Face Growing Risks
Iran Reportedly Reduces Strikes on Saudi Arabia Amid Concerns Over Strong Retaliation
Saudi Arabia Criticises Israeli Strikes in Southern Syria Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Egypt and Saudi Arabia Warn Iran’s Actions Threaten Stability Across the Gulf
Egypt and Saudi Arabia Warn Iran’s Actions Threaten Stability Across the Gulf
Saudi Arabia Unveils Comprehensive 2026 Roadmap to Streamline Company Formation
Saudi-UAE Tensions Reveal Emerging Rivalry at the Heart of Gulf Power Dynamics
Saudi Arabia Launches Gulf Maritime Support Initiative to Safeguard Shipping
Saudi Arabia Expands US Military Access as UAE Braces for Prolonged Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia Expels Iranian Diplomats Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia’s Edarat Wins Major Data Centre Deal with Regional Bank
Iran Intensifies Gulf Offensive as Saudi Arabia Intercepts Dozens of Drones
Regional Powers Hold Security Talks as Turkey Seeks New Strategic Pact
Asian Refiners Urge Saudi Arabia to Revise Oil Pricing Mechanism Amid War-Driven Volatility
Gulf States Weigh US Base Access and Military Alignment as Iran War Intensifies
IRGC Claims Strikes on Israel, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia as Conflict Widens
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Multiple Drones Amid Continued Iranian-Linked Attacks
Remains of Fallen Soldier Repatriated Following Death in Saudi Arabia
Iran Tensions Challenge Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Shift to Red Sea Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia Turns to Alternative Export Routes as Hormuz Disruption Strains Oil Flows
Saudi Arabia and UAE Move Closer to Backing US-Israeli Campaign Against Iran
Saudi Arabia Signals Readiness for Military Response as Iran Tensions Escalate
Saudi Arabia Warns Oil Could Surge Beyond $180 as Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Supply
Saudi Arabia Reports Drone Strike on Key Red Sea Refinery in Yanbu
United States Urges Citizens to Leave Saudi Arabia Amid Escalating Regional Conflict
Former Media Executive Chronicles Rise of Saudi Crown Prince in New Book
Saudi Aramco–Exxon Refinery in Yanbu Targeted in Latest Wave of Iranian Attacks
Greek-Operated Patriot System Intercepts Iranian Missiles Over Saudi Arabia
Asian Refiners Urge Saudi Arabia to Revise Oil Pricing as War Upends Markets
×