Across Baghdad's avenues and winding alleys, the streets are lined with campaign posters, creating a festive air.

However, beneath the bright banners, a mood of indifference prevails for many Iraqis; some passers-by ignore the oversized candidate photos, unmoved by the spectacle.

More than two decades after Saddam Hussein's fall ushered in democratic rule, Iraqis return to the polls on November 11th for the seventh time to choose a new 329-seat parliament from over 7,700 candidates.

While the election unfolds in rare calm, widespread disengagement marks the political climate -- a trend experts say could produce the lowest turnout since 2003.

'The electoral mood is apathetic,' notes Hayder Al-Shakeri, research fellow with the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House.

'Many Iraqis view the vote as unlikely to change entrenched power structures, even as the country enjoys relative calm.'

Iraq goes to these elections three years after the rise of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, in the shadow of chronic instability, economic hardship, and deep distrust in national leadership.

Yet, a recent Gallup survey suggests public attitudes may be shifting; confidence in government now stands at a record 55 percent, and trust in institutions including the police, military, and courts is also at its highest level in years -- although still short of the country's Gulf neighbors.

Despite this new optimism, analysts say persistent problems hold Iraq back.

'Despite experiencing a rare period of relative stability,' notes Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst based in Baghdad and a fellow at Century International, 'analysts and surveys suggest that many Iraqis feel profoundly disconnected from a political system viewed as stagnant, exclusionary, and incapable of delivering meaningful reform.'

Displaced Iraqis have their IDs checked as they arrive to vote at a polling station ahead of the November 11 parliamentary election in the Debaga camp east of Makhmur, northern Iraq on November 9th.

(AFP)

Jiyad cites the dominance of armed groups and established parties, absence of credible alternatives, and repeated cycles of unfulfilled promises as chief reasons for voter apathy.

Controversies that have deepened public alienation include electoral laws such as candidate disqualification, exclusion of overseas polling, and the introduction of biometric voter cards that analysts say limits the number of eligible voters.

During his tenure, Al-Sudani advanced an 'Iraq First' agenda focused on economic diversification, digitization of government, improving infrastructure, and reducing oil dependence.

He emerged as a chief proponent of the Development Road project, a $17-billion trade corridor linking the Faw Port on the Arabian Gulf to the Turkish border.

Yet in a country where nearly 60 percent of the population is under 25, employment and opportunity remain elusive for many, and young Iraqis see rampant corruption and patronage as serious barriers to progress.

'The government's approach has focused on short-term infrastructure and service projects that show quick results but stop short of systemic reform,' Shakeri observes.

Considered by many as a capable technocrat able to navigate Iraq's sectarian complexities, Al-Sudani is widely seen as the favorite to win Tuesday’s vote.

According to a new poll by the Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies, Al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Alliance leads with about 29 percent of projected seats.

However, experts caution that broad disengagement and what they see as a wider boycott risk further entrenching elite rule and deepening the gap between citizens and the government.

'In the short term,' notes Chatham House's Al-Shakeri, 'this may preserve stability, but over time it risks widening the legitimacy gap and prompting new cycles of frustration amongst society.'

For Hamzeh Hadad of the Center for a New American Security, this could be even more worrying.

'What it does do,' he warns, 'is lessen the credibility of the government, and this could lead to massive protests like we saw in 2019.'

While the election season at home is marked by apathy and fears of renewed protests, foreign powers are watching.

Muqtada Al-Sadr's shadow looms large despite his boycott of the 2025 vote; his movement continues to mobilize significant support through nationalist, anti-corruption rhetoric.

Al-Sadr’s relationship with Iran is complex -- marked by a pragmatic yet often adversarial balance.

Tehran remains Baghdad's most intrusive external player.

'Tehran views Iraq as a strategic ally and a vital component of its regional network,' notes Jiyad.

'The presence of Iran-aligned parties and armed factions within the new parliament will determine Tehran’s leverage.'

Despite recent setbacks for Iran regionally, it seeks to maintain strong influence in Baghdad; the US also pushes for a greater say -- pressuring Iraq to curb pro-Iran militias and promising cooperation on energy and security if its position is strengthened.

Ultimately, Hadad observes, 'Iraq needs more time to mature democratically and more years of stability before it can counter foreign influence.

Yes, there is relative stability in Iraq today, but it has not been that long, especially in comparison to the past of many decades of war and instability.'