Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Tuesday, Feb 24, 2026

Can the Chinese economy weather the storm of 2019-nCoV outbreak?

Can the Chinese economy weather the storm of 2019-nCoV outbreak?

Chinese stock markets witnessed sharp falls Monday as they reopened following the end of the Lunar New Year break, reflecting the widespread concern on the negative impact the coronavirus outbreak is having on the country's economy.

Since January 20, when the Chinese President Xi Jinping made remarks on containing the spread of the coronavirus, the nation has been placed on high alert. As the situation escalates, the country has mounted an aggressive offensive against the novel coronavirus. Since January 23, travel in and out of China's Hubei Province, the epicenter of this outbreak, has been severely restricted. Travel restrictions have later expanded to other regions, while people across the country have stepped up precautions and avoided gatherings or nonessential travel. Furthermore, as the Lunar New Year holiday was extended, most businesses have delayed reopening.

All these reactions undeniably will have adverse implications for the country's economy, at a time when it is still reeling from its two-year-long trade tensions with the U.S. and grappling with a slowing economy.

But how big of a blow will it be exactly? And will the country make it through? As there is still uncertainty surrounding how the outbreak will play out in the following weeks, it is hard to have a definitive conclusion and quantify the impact at this stage.

Nevertheless, a look at China's experiences with the 2003 SARS epidemic can shed some light on the current situation, in terms of which sectors will be affected most and how long-lasting the impact will be. And despite all the concerns over 2019-nCoV's negative impact, the conclusion is that there is no need for over-panic or excessive stress.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Xineye Bank, pointed out that during the 2003 SARS outbreak, which lasted for three quarters, the types of industries that were affected the most were transport, retail, restaurants and tourism. However, soon after the epidemic was over these industries quickly rebounded. And this should happen this time as well. Meanwhile, he added that over the past 17 years, there have been major changes in the Chinese economy which saw the above-mentioned industries take a smaller percentage in the country's GDP. With this in mind, disruptions felt by these industries should be smaller compared to during the SARS.

Looking at the timing of the outbreaks, Li Xunlei, chief economist and head of research institute at Zhongtai Securities, also noted that the impact the SARS epidemic had on the Chinese economy was mostly felt in the second quarter of 2003 with the growth rates of the four quarters that year being 11.1 percent, 9.1 percent, 10 percent and 10 percent respectively. He predicted that as the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus is happening in the first quarter of 2020, if it doesn't continue into the second quarter, the impact will most likely be limited to the first quarter, the GDP share of which is the lowest among the four quarters.

Another major source of confidence comes from the fact that compared to the SARS outbreak, the 2019 novel coronavirus is less lethal and the Chinese government has acted more resolutely against the virus this time. There is no doubt that since late January, the Chinese government has made combating the coronavirus a national priority, deploying massive efforts to stop its spread. With the constant information sharing with the public and rigorous research efforts, there is a good reason to believe this outbreak can be much more efficiently dealt with than during the SARS episode.

More importantly, past experiences with global epidemics, not only the SARS but also the 2015-16 Zika outbreak and the 2009 H1N1 flu, suggest that the economic shock wave felt during these events are only short-lived. After the outbreaks, economies were always able to bounce back. Economist and Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs Professor Shang-Jin Wei, also wrote in an article, "Looking at [China's] annual real GDP growth rates from 2000 to 2006, it is very hard to see a SARS effect in the data."

Nevertheless, even though the 2019-nCoV outbreak will not likely hurt the fundamentals of the economy, it does not mean the government should be complacent in dealing with its economic fallout, which the country's economists have repeatedly called attention to in recent days.

One concerning issue that has been highlighted is the pressure the 2019-nCoV outbreak put on China's small businesses. Extended holidays and subdued domestic demand will no doubt add to their financial stress. This will consequently have a damning effect on the country's employment, especially considering the most affected industries, such as transport and restaurants, employ a lot of the country's cheap labor. Moreover, if the crisis continues and causes exports to slow down, the labor-intensive and export-oriented companies will also have to lay off workers.

Huang Yiping, professor of economics at the National School of Development (NSD) of Peking University, provided suggestions on dealing with these problems: Firstly, the People's Bank of China should loosen its monetary policy; secondly, policies needs to be instituted to support the new economy and increase online consumption. Third, the government should offer small and medium-sized enterprises tax reduction; fourth, it should also shore up support for people who lost their jobs during the outbreak and strengthen social protections for migrant workers.

In conclusion, the Chinese economy will most certainly be able to weather the storm this time, as it did with the SARS outbreak. However, the government's response to support the economy, especially the country's small businesses, is also crucial and will have long-term impacts on how quick the economy will be able to regain its feet.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
GCC Secretary-General Holds Talks with EU Ambassador in Riyadh
Gulf States’ AI Investment Drive Seen as Strategic Bet on Technology and U.S. Security Ties
African Union Commission Chair Meets Saudi Vice Foreign Minister to Deepen Strategic Cooperation
President El-Sisi Holds Strategic Talks with Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh
Lucid Unveils Up to $12,000 Incentive for Air and Gravity Models in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Enters Global AI Partnership, Expanding Its Role in International Technology Governance
Saudi Arabia’s Landmark U.S. LNG Agreement Signals Major Strategic Shift
Saudi Arabia Accelerates Global Gaming Push with Billion-Dollar Deals and Expanded PIF Mandate
Saudi Arabia Reports $25.28 Billion Budget Deficit in Fourth Quarter of 2025
Alvarez & Marsal Tax Establishes Dedicated Pillar Two and Transfer Pricing Team in Saudi Arabia
United States Approves Over Fifteen Billion Dollars in Major Arms Sales to Israel and Saudi Arabia
Pre-Iftar Walks Gain Momentum as Ramadan Wellness Trend Spreads
Middle East Jackup Rig Fleet Contracts Further After Saudi Drilling Suspensions
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Prepare to Sign Five Gigawatt Renewable Energy Deal at COP31
King Mohammed VI Congratulates Saudi Leadership on Founding Day, Reaffirming Strategic Ties
US Envoy Huckabee Clarifies Remarks on Israel After Expansionism Controversy
Saudi Arabia Introduces Limited Exceptions to Regional Headquarters Requirement for Foreign Firms
Saudi Arabia Joins Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence, Elevating Its Role in Shaping AI Governance
Saudi Arabia and Arab States Mobilise Diplomatically After U.S. Envoy’s Israel Remarks
Cristiano Ronaldo Reaffirms His Commitment to Saudi Arabia Amid Transfer Speculation
Proposed US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Raises Questions Over Uranium Enrichment Provisions
Saudi Arabia Sends 81st Aid Flight to Gaza as Humanitarian Air Bridge Continues
Global Games Show Riyadh 2026 Positioned as Catalyst for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia Eases Procurement Rules, Allowing Foreign Firms Greater Access to Government Contracts
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Seal Two Billion Dollar Solar Energy Agreement
Saudi Crown Prince Reportedly Sends Letter to UAE Leader Over Yemen and Sudan Policies
Saudi Arabia Voices Concerns to UAE Over Sudan Conflict and Yemen Strategy
Saudi Arabia Joins Global Artificial Intelligence Alliance to Strengthen International Collaboration
Shura Island Positioned as Flagship of Saudi Arabia’s Ambitious Red Sea Tourism Drive
Saudi Arabia Rebukes Mike Huckabee Over Remarks in Tucker Carlson Interview
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises the rapid progress of Chinese tech companies.
Concerns Mount Over Potential Saudi Uranium Enrichment in Prospective US Nuclear Accord
Trump Directs Government to Release UFO and Alien Information
Trump Signs Global 10% Tariffs on Imports
Investability Emerges as the Defining Test of Saudi Arabia’s Next Market Phase
Saudi Arabia’s Packaging Market Accelerates as Sustainability and E-Commerce Drive Transformation
Saudi Arabia Unveils $32 Billion Push Into Theme Parks and Global Entertainment
Saudi Crude Exports to India Climb Sharply, Closing Gap With Russia
Saudi Arabia’s Halal Cosmetics Market Expands as Faith and Ethical Beauty Drive Growth
ImmunityBio Secures Saudi Partnerships to Launch Flagship Cancer Therapy
United Kingdom Denies U.S. Access to Military Base for Potential Iran Strike
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Launch Expanded Renewable Energy Partnership
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
Mongolian Mining Family’s HK$247 Million Stanley Home Purchase Highlights Resilient Luxury Market
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Saudi Arabia Tops Middle East Green Building Rankings with Record Growth in 2025
Qatar and Saudi Arabia Each Commit One Billion Dollars to President Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Initiative
Ramadan 2026 Prayer Times Set as Fasting Begins in Saudi Arabia and Egypt Announces Dates
Saudi Arabia Launches Ramadan 2026 Hotel Campaign to Boost Religious and Leisure Tourism
Saudi Arabia Seeks Reroute of Greece-Bound Fibre-Optic Cable Through Syria Instead of Israel
×