Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Apr 26, 2026

Can the Chinese economy weather the storm of 2019-nCoV outbreak?

Can the Chinese economy weather the storm of 2019-nCoV outbreak?

Chinese stock markets witnessed sharp falls Monday as they reopened following the end of the Lunar New Year break, reflecting the widespread concern on the negative impact the coronavirus outbreak is having on the country's economy.

Since January 20, when the Chinese President Xi Jinping made remarks on containing the spread of the coronavirus, the nation has been placed on high alert. As the situation escalates, the country has mounted an aggressive offensive against the novel coronavirus. Since January 23, travel in and out of China's Hubei Province, the epicenter of this outbreak, has been severely restricted. Travel restrictions have later expanded to other regions, while people across the country have stepped up precautions and avoided gatherings or nonessential travel. Furthermore, as the Lunar New Year holiday was extended, most businesses have delayed reopening.

All these reactions undeniably will have adverse implications for the country's economy, at a time when it is still reeling from its two-year-long trade tensions with the U.S. and grappling with a slowing economy.

But how big of a blow will it be exactly? And will the country make it through? As there is still uncertainty surrounding how the outbreak will play out in the following weeks, it is hard to have a definitive conclusion and quantify the impact at this stage.

Nevertheless, a look at China's experiences with the 2003 SARS epidemic can shed some light on the current situation, in terms of which sectors will be affected most and how long-lasting the impact will be. And despite all the concerns over 2019-nCoV's negative impact, the conclusion is that there is no need for over-panic or excessive stress.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Xineye Bank, pointed out that during the 2003 SARS outbreak, which lasted for three quarters, the types of industries that were affected the most were transport, retail, restaurants and tourism. However, soon after the epidemic was over these industries quickly rebounded. And this should happen this time as well. Meanwhile, he added that over the past 17 years, there have been major changes in the Chinese economy which saw the above-mentioned industries take a smaller percentage in the country's GDP. With this in mind, disruptions felt by these industries should be smaller compared to during the SARS.

Looking at the timing of the outbreaks, Li Xunlei, chief economist and head of research institute at Zhongtai Securities, also noted that the impact the SARS epidemic had on the Chinese economy was mostly felt in the second quarter of 2003 with the growth rates of the four quarters that year being 11.1 percent, 9.1 percent, 10 percent and 10 percent respectively. He predicted that as the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus is happening in the first quarter of 2020, if it doesn't continue into the second quarter, the impact will most likely be limited to the first quarter, the GDP share of which is the lowest among the four quarters.

Another major source of confidence comes from the fact that compared to the SARS outbreak, the 2019 novel coronavirus is less lethal and the Chinese government has acted more resolutely against the virus this time. There is no doubt that since late January, the Chinese government has made combating the coronavirus a national priority, deploying massive efforts to stop its spread. With the constant information sharing with the public and rigorous research efforts, there is a good reason to believe this outbreak can be much more efficiently dealt with than during the SARS episode.

More importantly, past experiences with global epidemics, not only the SARS but also the 2015-16 Zika outbreak and the 2009 H1N1 flu, suggest that the economic shock wave felt during these events are only short-lived. After the outbreaks, economies were always able to bounce back. Economist and Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs Professor Shang-Jin Wei, also wrote in an article, "Looking at [China's] annual real GDP growth rates from 2000 to 2006, it is very hard to see a SARS effect in the data."

Nevertheless, even though the 2019-nCoV outbreak will not likely hurt the fundamentals of the economy, it does not mean the government should be complacent in dealing with its economic fallout, which the country's economists have repeatedly called attention to in recent days.

One concerning issue that has been highlighted is the pressure the 2019-nCoV outbreak put on China's small businesses. Extended holidays and subdued domestic demand will no doubt add to their financial stress. This will consequently have a damning effect on the country's employment, especially considering the most affected industries, such as transport and restaurants, employ a lot of the country's cheap labor. Moreover, if the crisis continues and causes exports to slow down, the labor-intensive and export-oriented companies will also have to lay off workers.

Huang Yiping, professor of economics at the National School of Development (NSD) of Peking University, provided suggestions on dealing with these problems: Firstly, the People's Bank of China should loosen its monetary policy; secondly, policies needs to be instituted to support the new economy and increase online consumption. Third, the government should offer small and medium-sized enterprises tax reduction; fourth, it should also shore up support for people who lost their jobs during the outbreak and strengthen social protections for migrant workers.

In conclusion, the Chinese economy will most certainly be able to weather the storm this time, as it did with the SARS outbreak. However, the government's response to support the economy, especially the country's small businesses, is also crucial and will have long-term impacts on how quick the economy will be able to regain its feet.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
News Roundup
Strategic Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Security Concerns as Trump Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Keeps Red Sea Oil Exports Flowing Despite Regional Tensions
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
Saudi Business Leader Abudawood Appointed Chairman of Merit Incentives Group
TotalEnergies Confirms Damage at Saudi Refinery Following Security Incident
Saudi Arabia Launches Early Construction Phase for King Salman Stadium Project
Saudi Shift Away from Longstanding Dollar Oil Framework Gains Attention Amid Iran Conflict
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia Resolve Long-Running Transit Visa Dispute
Saudi Oil Capacity and Pipeline Flows Reduced as Supply Risks Intensify
TotalEnergies Reports Damage to Saudi SATORP Refinery Following Security Incidents
Gulf States Assess Prospects of U.S.-Iran Truce as Regional Stability Efforts Intensify
South Korea Resumes Honey Exports to Saudi Arabia Following Sanitary Approval
Saudi Arabia Carries Out Sentences in Eastern Province Following Security Convictions
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Backs King Street’s Regional Credit Strategy
Saudi Arabia Secures World Cup Return as Egypt Celebrates Landmark Qualification
Iran and Saudi Arabia Intensify Diplomatic Engagement Amid Regional Tensions
Russia and Saudi Arabia Open Visa-Free Travel Corridor for Citizens
Saudi Oil Output Capacity Reduced by 600,000 Barrels Per Day Amid Regional Conflict
Saudi Arabia Suspends Operations at Select Energy Sites as Precautionary Measure
Saudi Arabia Halts Operations at Multiple Energy Facilities Amid Heightened Tensions
Global Markets Jolt as Iran Signals Ceasefire Breakdown and Rising Regional Tensions
King Street Aligns with Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund to Expand Alternative Investments in Middle East
Attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Hub Raises Global Supply Concerns
Debate Emerges Over Saudi Strategic Decisions as Gulf Cooperation Council Dynamics Come Into Focus
Saudi Arabia Expands Full Workforce Localisation to 69 Professions in Major Labour Reform
Emerging Alliance of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia Signals New Regional Power Dynamic Amid Iran Conflict
Iran Linked to Strikes Across Gulf States Following Refinery Attack Escalation
Saudi Arabia Voices Concern Over Fragile US–Iran Ceasefire Stability
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
Saudi Arabia’s Key East-West Oil Pipeline Targeted Following Ceasefire Announcement
Iran Targets Saudi Arabia’s East-West Oil Pipeline in Escalating Regional Tensions
Trump Warns of Civilizational Stakes as Iran Halts Negotiations
Saudi Companies Expand Remote Work Measures Ahead of Iran-Related Security Concerns
Iran Warns of Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure if US Targets Its Facilities
Iran Urges Civilians to Form Human Shields Around Nuclear Sites as Diplomatic Deadline Approaches
Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices to Record Premiums Amid Supply Pressures Linked to Iran Conflict
Key Saudi-Bahrain Causeway Closed Amid Heightened Security Concerns Linked to Iran
Formula One Calendar Gap Explained as Fans Await Next Grand Prix
Growing Strain on the Petrodollar System Comes Into Focus Amid Iran Conflict
Reported Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Complex Raises Global Energy Supply Concerns
FedEx Introduces New Digital Tool to Streamline Imports into Saudi Arabia
Iran Claims Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Petrochemical Complex Amid Rising Regional Tensions
Taiwan to Source Oil Shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Ports
Saudi Arabia Evacuates Riyadh Financial District as Precaution Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia Balances Ambitious Economic Vision Amid Regional Tensions and Financial Pressures
Budget Saudi Arabia Reports Strong Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance
Saudi Arabia Expands Investment in Capcom With Stake Reaching Six Percent
Saudi Arabia Assesses Significant Economic Impact From Regional Conflict Involving Iran
US Beef Secures Expanded Market Access in Saudi Arabia
×