Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

Coronavirus: outbreak has so far battered air travel in Hong Kong and abroad – but worse is predicted

Analysts foresee cuts to capacity of up to 80 per cent, upwards of US$100 billion lost, and airlines at risk of going out of business under the squeeze of travel restrictions. Some call for governments to help the strategically crucial sector, with cash handouts or other relief measures

The global aviation industry – already battered by coronavirus disruption – should brace for a devastating further slump in business this year, analysts have said, with cuts to capacity of up to 80 per cent and airlines, including in Hong Kong, at risk of closure.

In Hong Kong, the aviation sector is expected to make deep cuts for the next few months, the city government having escalated its measures against the Covid-19 pandemic, including putting arrivals from all foreign countries under 14-day home quarantine from Thursday.

And given the sector’s economic importance, analysts said governments would have to offer handouts and various relief measures to struggling airlines.

The grim outlook comes as countries around the world tighten travel restrictions, with border closures and various quarantine measures, in an attempt to contain an epidemic that has swept across Asia, Europe and America and threatens to accelerate the global economic slowdown.

Pascal Martin, partner at OC&C Strategy Consultants, estimated that business would plummet by up to 80 per cent for some carriers during the affected period. In China alone, according to aviation analyst Cirium, more than 500,000 out of 1.11 million scheduled flights were cancelled from January 1 to March 10, accounting for 45 per cent.

“The impact is massive,” Martin said. “It could be estimated at 50 per cent to 80 per cent – depending on the airline – of total traffic value during the number of weeks that airlines have been shutting down their flights. This number is increasing week by week.”

According to business data platform Statista, the direct contribution of travel and tourism to global economic output amounted to just under US$2.9 trillion (HK$22.5 trillion) in 2019, while its total contribution reached more than US$9.2 trillion.

Martin said he expected many airlines to continue to take a beating for at least the next few months, as they continued to cut flights while people refrained from travelling.

“For example, British Airways stock has already lost more than 60 per cent of its value in the last month. By June, if things get better … we should see airline stocks starting to recover. But they may not have hit their bottom yet,” he said.

However, he remained “carefully optimistic” as, so far, epidemic confinement measures had proven their efficacy in China and Hong Kong, with a vaccine likely before too long.

“One big worry is that there could be a third big wave of virus infection in Africa, India, and the rest of Asia … If the virus spreads in these regions, it could trigger a prolonged air traffic halt,” he said.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently estimated airlines across the world could lose between US$63 billion and US$113 billion in revenue to the coronavirus – which has infected more than 190,000 worldwide, killing at least 7,800 – depending on the severity of the health crisis.



Dr Law Cheung-kwok, senior adviser at Chinese University’s Aviation Policy and Research Centre, estimated that for the next few months, Hong Kong carriers would have to cut flights by 70 to 80 per cent, warning that small airlines could struggle to stay in business.

According to the Airport Authority, there were 71.5 million air passengers and 419,730 flight movements in 2019. In February, general visitor arrivals to Hong Kong hit a new monthly low of 199,000, down more than 96 per cent year on year.

“The financial loss will be massive for the aviation sector this year, same as that of the global aviation industry. Small airlines such as Hong Kong Airlines will face the prospect of closure,” Law said.

However, Law said flagship carriers would probably ride out the storm as governments were bound to rescue these firms, which are deemed strategically important.

“The aviation sector is a very crucial strategic industry for any country,” he said.

Law said the Hong Kong government could consider helping struggling airlines with relief measures such as tax concessions or waiving landing charges. “For Cathay Pacific, it’s strongly backed by its parent company Swire Group so I am sure it can survive through the storm,” he said.

He was confident that, once the global outbreak is contained, the aviation sector would rebound quickly. “Past experiences tell us that once a crisis is over, aviation can recover very quickly. I remain positive about this industry,” he said.

Joanna Lu, head of Asia consultancy for Ascend by Cirium, said global air traffic could decline by as much as 20 per cent this year, and it was likely that 53 per cent of the world’s commercial jet fleet would be idle.

“It’s complete chaos in the market. We have no real understanding of where the market is heading. Overall the outlook isn’t good,” she said.

Lu admitted that some airlines might need to shut down or sell planes to ease cash-flow problems, especially the badly managed ones.

She said now was the time for all industry players and relevant governments to pitch in and save the aviation sector, especially the vulnerable and critical airline sector, possibly through relief measures.

“We believe it’s time now for the whole industry to work together and the governments need to give a helping hand. Eventually they all are in the same game,” she said.

Francis Lun Sheung-nim, chief executive of Geo Securities, described the current crisis as the worst for the aviation industry since the second world war, saying governments must help carriers ride out the storm including with cash handouts, concessions on bank loans and other waivers.

“If a government just stands idly by and does nothing, the airlines will go bust and this will be detrimental to the region’s economy,” he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
United States Sells Luxury Yacht Amadea, Valued at Approximately $325 Million, in First Sale of a Seized Russian Yacht Since the Invasion of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez announce engagement
Asia-Pacific dominates world’s busiest flight routes, with South Korea’s Jeju–Seoul corridor leading global rankings
Private Welsh island with 19th-century fort listed for sale at over £3 million
Sam Altman challenges Elon Musk with plans for Neuralink rival
Australia to Recognize the State of Palestine at UN Assembly
The Collapse of the Programmer Dream: AI Experts Now the Real High-Earners
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Germany’s Economic Breakdown and the Return of Militarization: From Industrial Collapse to a New Offensive Strategy
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
President Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency After Leg Swelling
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Mediators Edge Closer to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
Germany Seeks Taliban Deal to Deport Afghan Migrants
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
×