Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025

The world's airlines say they won't recover until 2024, reflecting a new wave of pessimism as the pandemic rages on

The world's airlines say they won't recover until 2024, reflecting a new wave of pessimism as the pandemic rages on

The International Air Transport Association, which represents most of the world's major airlines, said it does not expect the airline industry to recover from the coronavirus pandemic until 2024.. The timeline, along with recent comments from airline executives, reflects a new level of public pessimism about when business will return to normal.. Industry analysts offered that timeline as early as April, when airlines were painting a rosier picture. Here's what led the world's largest airline trade group to agree.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), a global trade group representing most of the world's major airlines and cargo carriers, said earlier this week that it does not expect the air travel industry to recover from the hit dealt to it by the coronavirus pandemic before 2024.

That timeline, which defines "recovery" as a return to 2019 levels of traffic and revenue, is the most dire yet offered by the group, which had previously forecast a bounce back by 2023.

"Ahead of any vaccine, it really does depend on how well countries manage to control the virus," IATA's chief economist, Brian Pearce, said in a briefing on Tuesday. "That is clearly going to be an issue with the recovery. What we haven't seen is the sort of progress that we need."

The bulk of the problem is that the flying public has relatively little interest in flying. "While pent-up demand exists for VFR (visiting friends and relatives) and leisure travel, consumer confidence is weak in the face of concerns over job security and rising unemployment, as well as risks of catching COVID-19," IATA said in a press release.

Moreover, corporate travel staying down as companies seek to cut costs and adjust to remote meetings will hamper a recovery, IATA said. Even as the economy picks back up, business travel may be slow to return.

"Corporate travel budgets are expected to be very constrained as companies continue to be under financial pressure even as the economy improves," IATA said. The group said surveys indicate that the link between GDP growth and business travel has frayed, as videoconferencing makes in-person meetings less necessary.

IATA's revised timeline represents the culmination of a new wave of pessimism from airlines about the travel recovery.

In the early months of the pandemic, most carriers suggested a two- to three-year timeframe for recovery. One exception was Southwest CEO Gary Kelly, who offered a five-year timetable in April. "Based on history, in a recessionary environment, it is a long recovery period for businesses," Kelly said on his first quarter earnings call. "This one feels like it could be worse."

Industry analysts, too, were quick to predict a long road to recovery. Travel demand fell off in the Asia region in mid-to-late January, and cratered in the rest of the world in mid-March. While analysts in January had envisioned a V-shaped recovery if the impact spread to US and Europe markets, by April, that hope had evaporated.

"We are growing increasingly convinced that industry recovery to 2019 levels of output will be a multi-year affair," analyst Jamie Baker of JPMorgan wrote in early April, "resulting in the material shedding of aircraft and headcount along the way."

"We expect it to take 2 to 5 years to recover to 2019 levels," analyst Helane Becker of Cowen wrote in a lengthy April 13 report titled A Winding Road to Recovery, adding: "our working assumption is 2021 revenues will be back to 2016 levels."

"Unfortunately, return to work might not mean immediate return to the air," she added. "It is highly likely that any recovery won't start until the fourth quarter at the earliest, and then continue slowly through 2021 and into 2022."

Other leading analysts, including Jamie Baker of JPMorgan and Andrew Didora of Bank of America, also continue to suggest a similar timeline, pointing to 3-4 year targets in recent research notes.

And now, the airlines themselves agree: The road back to "normal" won't just be rough, but long.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
Nvidia and Abu Dhabi’s TII Launch First AI-&-Robotics Lab in the Middle East
UK, Canada, and Australia Officially Recognise Palestine in Historic Shift
Dubai Property Boom Shows Strain as Flippers Get Buyer’s Remorse
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
UAE-US Stargate Project Poised to Make Abu Dhabi a Global AI Powerhouse
Saudi Arabia cracks down on music ‘lounges’ after conservative backlash
Saudi Arabia Signs ‘Strategic Mutual Defence’ Pact with Pakistan, Marking First Arab State to Gain Indirect Access to Nuclear Strike Capabilities in the Region
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
Kuwait opens bidding for construction of three cities to ease housing crunch.
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
Turkish authorities seize leading broadcaster amid fraud and tax investigation
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
Tether Expands into Gold Sector with Profit-Driven Diversification
Trump’s New War – and the ‘Drug Tyrant’ Fearing Invasion: ‘1,200 Missiles Aimed at Us’
At the Parade in China: Laser Weapons, 'Eagle Strike,' and a Missile Capable of 'Striking Anywhere in the World'
Information Warfare in the Age of AI: How Language Models Become Targets and Tools
Israeli Airstrike in Yemen Kills Houthi Prime Minister
After the Shock of Defeat, Iranians Yearn for Change
YouTube Altered Content by Artificial Intelligence – Without Permission
Iran Faces Escalating Water Crisis as Protests Spread
More Than Half a Million Evacuated as Typhoon Kajiki Heads for Vietnam
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Miles Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Trump Backs Putin’s Land-for-Peace Proposal Amid Kyiv’s Rejection
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
United States Sells Luxury Yacht Amadea, Valued at Approximately $325 Million, in First Sale of a Seized Russian Yacht Since the Invasion of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez announce engagement
Asia-Pacific dominates world’s busiest flight routes, with South Korea’s Jeju–Seoul corridor leading global rankings
Private Welsh island with 19th-century fort listed for sale at over £3 million
Sam Altman challenges Elon Musk with plans for Neuralink rival
×