Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Saturday, Jul 12, 2025

UK set to avoid recession despite poor August

UK set to avoid recession despite poor August

The economy contracted in August, but is still expected to have grown in the third quarter.

The UK's economy is expected to avoid a recession after showing better-than-expected growth in the three months to the end of August.

The Office for National Statistics said the economy would now have to shrink sharply in September for the third quarter to show an overall contraction.

In three months, the economy grew by 0.3% as weak manufacturing was offset by buoyant TV and film production.

Even so, the economy unexpectedly shrank in the month of August by 0.1%.


Why the talk about a recession?


The growth figures are being watched closely for signs of recession - defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction - after the economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time since 2012.

The next quarter runs until the end of September so the August data is the second month in the third quarter.


What is the UK's GDP?


Although the economy contracted in August, the ONS revised up its forecast for growth in July from 0.3% to 0.4%.

Andrew Wishart, UK economist at Capital Economics, said that this revision meant "fears that the economy is already in recession have been banished".

The ONS said the economy would now have to contract by 1.5% in September alone for the UK to slide in to recession.

What happened in the latest three months?
The ONS uses the monthly data to compile a rolling three-month picture of GDP.

It said that in the first half of 2019 the data had been volatile because of preparations for the original Brexit date in March, which had sparked some stockpiling.

Rob Kent-Smith, head of GDP at the ONS, said: "Growth increased in the latest three months, despite a weak performance across manufacturing, with TV and film production helping to boost the services sector.

"Services provided [the] majority of the growth over the three months, with production and manufacturing falling back," he said.

Over the three months the services sector - which makes up roughly 80% of GDP - grew by 0.4%, following a period of largely flat growth in the previous three months.

The ONS said the production sector fell by 0.4% in the same period, while construction output grew by 0.1%.


So why did the economy shrink in August?


For August, economists had been expecting zero growth.

But the ONS data showed it contracted, dragged lower by a drop in manufacturing when car production was subdued.

Only the construction sector expanded during the month, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Manufacturing contracted by 0.7% while the all-important services sector failed to grow.

He described the August data as "disappointing".

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Russia Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Mediators Edge Closer to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
Germany Seeks Taliban Deal to Deport Afghan Migrants
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spies and Arrests Hundreds Amid Post-War Crackdown
Trump Asserts Readiness for Further Strikes on Iran Amid Nuclear Tensions
Qatar Airways Clears Backlog of Passengers Following Missile Threats
Iran's Parliament Votes to Suspend Cooperation with Nuclear Watchdog
Trump Announces Upcoming US-Iran Meeting Amid Controversial Airstrikes
Trump Moves to Reshape Middle East Following Israel-Iran Conflict
NATO Leaders Endorse Plan for Increased Defence Spending
U.S. Crude Oil Prices Drop Below $65 Amid Market Volatility
“You Have 12 Hours to Flee”: Israeli Threat Campaign Targets Surviving Iranian Officials
Oman Set to Introduce Personal Income Tax, First in Gulf
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Trump Praises Iran’s ‘Very Weak’ Response After U.S. Strikes and Presses Israel to Pursue Peace
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
G7 Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Key Global Issues
Mass exodus in Tehran as millions try to flee following Trump’s evacuation order
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
Iran Conducts Ballistic Missile Launches Amid Heightened Tensions with Israel
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
Shock Within Iran’s Leadership: Khamenei’s Failed Plan to Launch 1,000 Missiles Against Israel
UK Deploys Jets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions
Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi Urges Overthrow of Khamenei Regime
×