Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Friday, Mar 13, 2026

US recession fears grow as economy slows sharply in first quarter

US recession fears grow as economy slows sharply in first quarter

Growth eases by far more than expected between January and March to the extent financial markets and many economists now believe recession is inevitable.

The world's largest economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, according to the first official estimate which has raised fears of recession ahead.

Growth was measured at an annualised rate of 1.1% between January and March, the Commerce Department said.

Economists had been expecting a figure of 2%.

The slump followed growth of 2.6%, by the same measure, during the final three months of 2023.

The growth was mainly explained by consumer spending holding up, probably due to a low unemployment rate, as the aggressive pace of interest rate rises to tame inflation hit other areas, such as the housing market, harder.

The data also pointed to a big reduction in business inventories - behaviour that is typically seen in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Economists are split on the prospect of recession being declared.

The definition of a technical recession across most of the world is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5% and is expected to hike again next month


By that measure, the US economy would have been in recession during the first half of last year.

But the country defines such a contraction differently. It is determined by a committee of experts.

The US economy's low jobless rate largely prevented a recession being declared last year but conditions are darkening for 2023.

Many economists say the cumulative impact of the Fed Reserve's rate hikes has yet to be fully felt while the pace of hiring is slowing.

Many banks, which are charging higher interest rates as a result, have also muddied the waters due to a tightening of lending standards since the failure last month of two major banks - Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

There are signs the crisis of confidence is not over yet as First Republic, a major regional lender, has seen a fresh run on its share price this week taking it to fresh lows.

It was effectively rescued last month by a $30bn cash injection from 11 major peers and revealed on Tuesday that $100bn had been withdrawn by depositors during the frenzy to grip the sector.

It has been reported that the federal government is unwilling to engineer a rescue.

Another political challenge is also gaining traction.

The Republican-dominated House of Representatives has moved to pressure President Biden over a looming debt ceiling deadline by voting to raise the limit only in exchange for big spending cuts.

A default would plunge the US economy into chaos so it forces Mr Biden to negotiate with his political opponents.

Brian Klimke, investment director at Cetera Investment Management, said of the economic growth figures: "January was really the standout month and since then we've seen weakness in February and March, which has really been slowly dragging down the economy.

"If we're looking to the future, data does seem to be continuing to weaken.

"The good news is we do think a recession could be mild."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Saudi Arabia Launches Royal Institute of Anthropology to Examine Social Transformation
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Arrives in Saudi Arabia for High-Level Talks
Saudi Aramco Turns to Ukrainian Drone Interceptors to Shield Oil Infrastructure from Iranian Threats
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Rising Iran Conflict Casts Shadow Over Saudi Arabia’s $38 Billion Gaming Industry Ambitions
Iran Launches Missile and Drone Strikes Across Gulf as Oil Prices Surge Past $100
Saudi Air Defences Destroy Three Drones Targeting Strategic Shaybah Oil Field
Debate Grows Over Saudi Arabia’s Role in Sudan War Amid US Alliance Questions
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Travels to Saudi Arabia After Discussions With Iranian Leadership
Two Strategic Pipelines Allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Iran warns of $200 oil as forces target merchant ships in Gulf
Japan to Release 45 Days of Oil Reserves Amid Iran Conflict
Three Commercial Vessels Attacked Near Strait of Hormuz, Thai-Flagged Ship Damaged and Crew Evacuated
Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Set for Record in March as Kingdom Reroutes Crude Amid Hormuz Crisis
Saudi Arabia Seeks Belgian Military Support After Iranian Missile Attacks
Saudi Arabia Welcomes US Decision to Designate Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood as Terrorist Organisation
Saudi Aramco Plans Dual Gulf and Red Sea Export Routes as Iran Crisis Disrupts Oil Shipments
Saudi Cabinet Condemns Iranian Attacks and Reaffirms Kingdom’s Right to Defend Its Sovereignty
Ukraine Deploys Counter-Drone Teams to Gulf States as Iranian Drone Threat Expands
Bahrain Grand Prix Faces Uncertainty as Saudi Arabia Works to Keep Formula One Race on Track
Saudi Arabia Faces New Strategic Dilemma in Yemen as Regional War Reshapes Calculations
OPEC Confirms Saudi-Led Oil Output Increase as Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets
Pakistan Pledges Rapid Support for Saudi Arabia Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
Aramco Warns Global Oil Market Faces ‘Catastrophic’ Shock if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Iran Launches Drone and Missile Attacks Across Gulf Targets Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain
Saudi Arabia Elevates Fahad Al-Saif as Vision 2030 Enters Crucial Implementation Phase
Saudi Aramco Expands Routes to Move Oil Without Reliance on the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Reaffirm Mutual Defense Cooperation Following Iran Strike
Saudi Arabia Plans Major Ukrainian Arms Deal to Counter Iranian Drone Threat
Pentagon Signals Intensification of U.S. Air Campaign as Iran Conflict Escalates
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham Raises Prospect of Mutual Defense Pact With Saudi Arabia Amid Iran Conflict
Why Saudi Arabia Is Unlikely to Have Wanted U.S. Airstrikes on Iran
Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Oil Exports Set to Reach Record High as Gulf Routes Face Disruption
Saudi Arabia Pushes East–West Oil Pipeline Toward Full Capacity as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Flows
Oil Prices Retreat From Peak as G7 Weighs Release of Strategic Reserves
Pentagon Identifies U.S. Soldier Who Died After Iranian Strike on Saudi Air Base
Why Saudi Arabia’s $50 Billion ‘The Line’ Megacity Slowed — and How Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping the Plan
United States Withdraws Diplomatic Staff from Saudi Arabia and Southeast Turkey as Regional Conflict Escalates
Fanatics Moves Tom Brady Flag Football Showcase from Saudi Arabia to Los Angeles Amid Regional War
Saudi Arabia Seeks Strategic Support from Pakistan After Iranian Missile and Drone Attacks
Saudi Arabia Begins Oil Output Cuts as Hormuz Disruption Forces Storage Limits
Saudi Arabia Travel Advisory Tightened as Middle East War Triggers Regional Security Alerts
Saudi Arabia Warns Iran It Will Be ‘Biggest Loser’ as Drone Strikes Spread Across Gulf States
Lindsey Graham Urges Saudi Arabia to Join US Effort Against Iran as War Expands
Saudi Crown Prince Holds Strategic Calls With Spanish and Ukrainian Leaders Amid Regional Tensions
Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways Shifts Operations to Saudi Arabia Amid Regional Airspace Disruptions
×