Israel's Strategic Shift in Syria: A New Approach Toward Turkish Influence
Amid rising regional tensions, Israel explores prospects for sharing influence in Syria with Turkey and other powers, aiming to secure its strategic interests.
In a strategic pivot, Israel is reportedly assessing a revised strategy for addressing perceived regional threats emanating from Syria, particularly as it seeks to avoid direct confrontation with Turkey.
Analysts indicate that Israel may propose an informal arrangement to share spheres of influence in Syria with major powers, including the United States, Russia, and Turkey, in exchange for assurances that it retains control over the buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
Military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai articulated concerns within Israeli defense circles regarding Turkey's efforts to fill the power vacuum left by the diminishing influence of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
He noted that Turkey aims to position itself as a dominant alternative force in Syria by forming a 'Sunni Islamist axis' to counterbalance the 'Shia axis' led by Iran.
Israeli airstrikes, which targeted four Syrian military airbases last week—including the T-4 airbase in Homs—were interpreted as a message to Ankara amidst fears that Turkey intended to deploy radar systems and air defenses at these locations.
This military action occurred shortly after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made remarks calling for divine intervention against what he termed the 'oppressive Zionist entity.' Concurrent with the airstrikes, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant issued direct warnings to the Syrian leadership, suggesting that Damascus would bear responsibility for hostile forces positioning themselves within Syria.
While Israeli officials did not explicitly name Turkey in their statements, Ben-Yishai emphasized that the Israeli message was aimed squarely at President Erdoğan, focusing on preventing the entrenchment of Turkish military presence in southern Syria.
Ben-Yishai outlined what he called a 'neo-Ottoman strategy' where Turkey attempts to re-establish itself as a regional power by exploiting political and security vacuums across the Middle East.
He highlighted that Turkey has established permanent military bases in eight countries, including northern Syria and northern Iraq, to exert control over energy and gas routes in the Eastern Mediterranean and disrupt Israeli-Egyptian initiatives in this sphere.
He underscored that Turkey's ambitions extend beyond gas fields in the Mediterranean, as Ankara seeks to restrict Mediterranean nations from engaging in gas trade with Europe, particularly opposing the construction of an underwater pipeline intended to transport gas from Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus to Europe.
This blockade could fuel ongoing tensions between Israel and Turkey.
Furthermore, concerns arise from Turkey's alleged close ties to Sunni militant groups that have fought against the Syrian regime, notably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has close affiliations with current Syrian opposition dynamics.
According to Israeli sources, Ankara has allegedly offered assistance to rebuild the Syrian army with fighters from these groups.
From a security perspective, the Israeli defense establishment is wary of a scenario where the Syrian army may morph into a 'Sunni military loyal to Turkey,' which could pose a threat analogous to that from Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah along its northern front.
The Israeli perspective has reportedly crystallized following the anticipated collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, opening the door for a contest over influence in Syria among various competing powers.
Despite the evident military escalation, there are indications that Israel does not rule out negotiating a regional understanding with Turkey regarding the division of influence in Syria.
A broader plan, reportedly coordinated with the United States, envisions a delineation of control where Russia manages the western coastline, Turkey retains authority in the north, Israel governs the south, and the United States oversees the eastern, oil-rich regions.
Israeli channels for diplomatic communication with Turkey remain functional, underscoring a potential for engagement despite ideological differences, contrasting with the situation regarding Iran.
Turkey, as a NATO member and a U.S. ally, maintains operational dialogue with Israel, even amidst substantial disagreements over issues involving Hamas and broader regional dynamics.
The topic of Turkish presence in Syria is expected to feature prominently in upcoming discussions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside other pressing concerns such as Iran's nuclear ambitions and the status of prisoners in Gaza.
Analysts indicate that Israel may propose an informal arrangement to share spheres of influence in Syria with major powers, including the United States, Russia, and Turkey, in exchange for assurances that it retains control over the buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
Military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai articulated concerns within Israeli defense circles regarding Turkey's efforts to fill the power vacuum left by the diminishing influence of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
He noted that Turkey aims to position itself as a dominant alternative force in Syria by forming a 'Sunni Islamist axis' to counterbalance the 'Shia axis' led by Iran.
Israeli airstrikes, which targeted four Syrian military airbases last week—including the T-4 airbase in Homs—were interpreted as a message to Ankara amidst fears that Turkey intended to deploy radar systems and air defenses at these locations.
This military action occurred shortly after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made remarks calling for divine intervention against what he termed the 'oppressive Zionist entity.' Concurrent with the airstrikes, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant issued direct warnings to the Syrian leadership, suggesting that Damascus would bear responsibility for hostile forces positioning themselves within Syria.
While Israeli officials did not explicitly name Turkey in their statements, Ben-Yishai emphasized that the Israeli message was aimed squarely at President Erdoğan, focusing on preventing the entrenchment of Turkish military presence in southern Syria.
Ben-Yishai outlined what he called a 'neo-Ottoman strategy' where Turkey attempts to re-establish itself as a regional power by exploiting political and security vacuums across the Middle East.
He highlighted that Turkey has established permanent military bases in eight countries, including northern Syria and northern Iraq, to exert control over energy and gas routes in the Eastern Mediterranean and disrupt Israeli-Egyptian initiatives in this sphere.
He underscored that Turkey's ambitions extend beyond gas fields in the Mediterranean, as Ankara seeks to restrict Mediterranean nations from engaging in gas trade with Europe, particularly opposing the construction of an underwater pipeline intended to transport gas from Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus to Europe.
This blockade could fuel ongoing tensions between Israel and Turkey.
Furthermore, concerns arise from Turkey's alleged close ties to Sunni militant groups that have fought against the Syrian regime, notably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has close affiliations with current Syrian opposition dynamics.
According to Israeli sources, Ankara has allegedly offered assistance to rebuild the Syrian army with fighters from these groups.
From a security perspective, the Israeli defense establishment is wary of a scenario where the Syrian army may morph into a 'Sunni military loyal to Turkey,' which could pose a threat analogous to that from Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah along its northern front.
The Israeli perspective has reportedly crystallized following the anticipated collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, opening the door for a contest over influence in Syria among various competing powers.
Despite the evident military escalation, there are indications that Israel does not rule out negotiating a regional understanding with Turkey regarding the division of influence in Syria.
A broader plan, reportedly coordinated with the United States, envisions a delineation of control where Russia manages the western coastline, Turkey retains authority in the north, Israel governs the south, and the United States oversees the eastern, oil-rich regions.
Israeli channels for diplomatic communication with Turkey remain functional, underscoring a potential for engagement despite ideological differences, contrasting with the situation regarding Iran.
Turkey, as a NATO member and a U.S. ally, maintains operational dialogue with Israel, even amidst substantial disagreements over issues involving Hamas and broader regional dynamics.
The topic of Turkish presence in Syria is expected to feature prominently in upcoming discussions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside other pressing concerns such as Iran's nuclear ambitions and the status of prisoners in Gaza.
