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Friday, Apr 04, 2025

Leadership Challenges for Hamas Following Recent Assassinations

Leadership Challenges for Hamas Following Recent Assassinations

The assassination of key figures has significantly impacted Hamas's decision-making processes and administrative structure.
Hamas is grappling with formidable challenges to restructure its leadership following the assassination of prominent figures within its political office in and outside Gaza by Israeli forces.

This upheaval has also targeted officials across the political, military, and governmental sectors.

During a ceasefire of approximately 58 days, which collapsed in March 2024, Hamas sought to reorganize its internal structure in Gaza by appointing new leaders to manage critical areas.

There was a push towards conducting swift internal elections to solidify the leadership of Khalil Hayya as head of the political bureau in Gaza, in consensus with the fact that he was previously the deputy of the assassinated Yahya Sinwar, who died in combat with Israeli forces in Rafah in October 2024.

The newly appointed Hayya, currently operating from Qatar and also traveling to Egypt, Turkey, and other countries to lead Hamas negotiations for further ceasefires, has attempted to collaborate with key members in Gaza, including Mohammad Al-Jamaasi, Yasser Harb, Ismail Barhum, and Issam Al-Dahalis, to restructure organizational workflows.

However, many of these individuals have fallen victim to a series of assassinations after Israel renewed its military campaign.

As Hamas faces a challenging reality at the leadership level, the administrative void has delayed salary disbursements for government employees within the organization.

While political and military personnel reportedly received up to 60 percent of their salaries during the second day of Eid al-Fitr, the delay is attributed to the administrative vacuum and difficulty in decision-making exacerbated by ongoing Israeli pursuits of key figures overseeing payroll and Gaza management.

Reports indicate that the recent spate of assassinations has significantly impacted the movement’s operational management, especially within Gaza.

Currently, a governing body referred to as the 'Leadership Council' is managing the organization in the aftermath of the leadership void created by the assassination of the political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last July, and then the subsequent killing of his successor Yahya Sinwar three months later in Gaza.

With internal elections to appoint a new bureau head and deputy proving unfeasible, Hamas has resorted to reliance on the Leadership Council.

Previously, decision-making processes within the movement relied on consensus from the political bureau, favoring input from its head and deputy along with regional leaders.

In the present scenario, the Leadership Council, mainly comprising several members including regional heads, has assumed the role of decision-making, which occurs with the agreement of members, and is discussed with the broader political bureau as necessary.

The Leadership Council is essentially led by Mohammad Darwish, the head of Hamas's Shura Council, following the assassination of Osama Al-Mazini during an Israeli airstrike in October.

The exact number of members within the Leadership Council remains unclear, but estimates suggest it consists of between five to seven individuals, while the political bureau includes over 20 positions.

Since July, Israelis have assassinated approximately 15 leaders from Hamas's political bureau in Gaza, excluding Haniyeh and Saleh Al-Arouri, who was killed abroad.

Hamas sources indicate that, due to security concerns stemming from ongoing Israeli pursuits, the movement has reverted to decision-making through the Leadership Council without reverting to the Gaza leadership except in emergencies.

This practice had been adopted briefly during heightened conflict before the recent ceasefire but returned to similar terms after the latest wave of assassinations and conflict resurgence.

The sources maintain that there are significant red lines that the Leadership Council or negotiators cannot cross without consulting all political bureau members, particularly those remaining in Gaza, including the military wing of Hamas, namely the Al-Qassam Brigades.

Central to ongoing discussions are negotiations for ceasefires, which necessitate input from Gaza's leadership, especially from the military command of Al-Qassam, currently led by Mohammad Sinwar, following the Israeli assassinations of figures like Mohammed Deif and his deputy Marwan Issa.

Sources confirm that Mohammad Sinwar plays a crucial role in the decision-making processes impacting Hamas, notably concerning the operations of Al-Qassam Brigades and the handling of Israeli prisoners.

However, it is emphasized that no individual within the current leadership, including Hayya, Darwish, or Sinwar, has the authority to make critical decisions without broader consensus among the Leadership Council and members of the political bureau in conjunction with the military command of Al-Qassam.

Challenges in communication between Gaza and external leaders, compounded by ongoing security concerns and pursuits, often delay critical communications with decision-makers.

These obstacles have intermittently hindered the negotiation processes due to lingering delays in conveying responses to intermediaries.

The persistence of these challenges has not significantly impacted the recent negotiations, as Israel reportedly remains resistant to engaging constructively with proposed intermediary suggestions.
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