The turnout in the Iranian legislative elections, seen as a test of the rulers' legitimacy, reached about 41 percent, making it the lowest turnout since the 1979 revolution that laid the foundation for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The official IRNA news agency early Saturday reported that 41 percent of the 61 million Iranians eligible to vote participated in the twelfth legislative elections and the sixth session of the Assembly of Experts.

The Revolutionary Guard-affiliated Fars news agency reported that the turnout was over 40 percent.

On Friday, Iranian voters cast their ballots to choose a new parliament at a time when frustration over living and economic issues and restrictions on political and social freedoms is growing.

More than 15,000 candidates vied for the 290 parliamentary seats. This coincided with the voting for the Assembly of Experts, which consists of 88 seats and is constitutionally responsible for choosing the successor to Leader Ali Khamenei, who turned 85 last month, in case he becomes unable to fulfill his duties.

Results seemed predetermined even before voting; competition was mainly among candidates of the conservative hardliner camp, with the primary reformist and moderate candidates being excluded from the race.

The early results in Tehran showed the dominance of conservative hardliners, especially the 'Subh-e Iran' group.

Among the front-runners were 'Paydari' faction leader Morteza Agha-Tehrani, Mahmoud Nabavian, hardliner Hamid Rasaei, and Revolutionary Guard leader Ismail Kowsari. Following them were Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and his conservative ally, the former Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki.

The list of front-runners did not include moderate candidate Ali Motahari, who announced a list of unknown candidates to break the conservative domination in Tehran. Iranian websites reported that Motahari was not among the 60 candidates from Tehran.

The Interior Ministry may announce the official turnout later this week. If these figures are confirmed officially, they will be the lowest since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Ghalibaf's List Faces Defeat

Despite Ghalibaf's advance, news sites talked about the failure of most of his allies from the current Tehran deputies to reach parliament.

Reports varied regarding the number of votes Ghalibaf himself received.

The Larjani-friendly 'Khabar Online' site mentioned, "Ghalibaf, who won one million votes in the lowest turnout election, after 4 years, has not received more than 200,000 votes," describing this as "a significant and heavy defeat." The site added, "The elections are a step backward; winning with the lowest turnout."

However, Iranian sites reported that after counting 70 percent of the ballots, 'Subh-e Iran' candidate Mahmoud Nabavian received 340,000 votes, and the second-place Hamid Rasaei got 280,000 votes. Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi came in third with 270,000 votes, and Ghalibaf ranked fourth with 250,000 votes.

The number of voters in Tehran is 10 million. The turnout in the capital was not immediately clear. Some early reports on Saturday indicated it was around 20 percent. Turnout in the capital was about 26 percent four years ago. In the presidential elections, it was 23 percent.

In the early hours of the vote count, Ali Akbar Raefipour, the head of the 'Subh-e Iran' list, said, "The enemies were saying that the participation in Tehran did not exceed 9 percent, but the painful news for them is that it exceeded 11.2 percent about an hour ago."

Abbas Jafari, head of the Tehran election committee, said the elections might go to a second decisive round.

Legitimacy Concerns

The rulers in Tehran were eager for a large voter turnout to support their legitimacy, which was severely damaged by anti-government protests in 2022 and 2023, turning into some of the worst political unrest since the revolution.

However, a poll conducted by state television had indicated that only about 41 percent of Iranians eligible to vote would participate.

It seems to be the case; the 'Hamshahri' newspaper reported that more than 25 million people, or 41 percent of the total number of voters, participated in the elections.

The turnout in the 2020 parliamentary elections dropped to a record low of 42.5 percent, while about 62 percent of voters participated in 2016.

Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei accused Iran's "enemies," a term usually used to refer to the United States and Israel, of trying to discourage Iranian voters.

"The Silent Majority"

Official media, quoting officials, reported that the turnout was "good," but witnesses said most polling stations in Tehran and several other cities had weak turnouts.

The authorities extended the voting three times due to "the wide reception and overcrowding of people at polling stations." Even after midnight, the media reported that electoral districts would remain open until the last person headed to the polling stations cast their vote.

Television coverage focused on specific electoral districts in Tehran, such as Hosseinia Ershad, Hosseinia Khomeini, the Jamaran area, and the mosque adjacent to the Iranian Parliament building in the Baharestan area, where senior officials and their families vote and which is restricted to foreign media.

In contrast to the government's narrative, activists posted videos and photos showing nearly empty polling stations.

'Hamshahri' described Friday's election turnout as a "slap of 25 million" in the face of calls to boycott the elections, with a front-page headline next to a photo of a ballot paper slapping US President Joe Biden on his face.

The term "The Silent Majority" was the main headline on the front page of the reformist 'Etemad' newspaper, which also estimated the turnout at about 41 percent.

Former reformist deputy Mahmoud Sadeghi wrote on the 'Eghtesad' platform, "The previous elections, when the turnout was 42.5 percent, they said it was due to the coronavirus pandemic, but now with the percentage repeated, they counted it as a victory."

The authorities had announced the first two coronavirus infections in the final hours of the election campaign, 24 hours before the polling stations opened. Observers then said the authorities announced the spread of the virus after confirming that turnout for the elections had waned. The former government faced accusations of covering up coronavirus outbreaks for up to two months.

In his turn, analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi said in his blog that "conservative media celebrate a 40 percent turnout; if it were 20 percent, they would have declared victory and celebrated. It is not customary in our country for anyone's perceptions to match reality; this reality must conform to the mindset of individuals."

Multiple Crises

The conservative-dominated parliament within the Islamic Republic has had little influence on foreign policy or the nuclear program, which Iran says is peaceful but the West believes aims to build nuclear weapons. These areas are dominated by Khamenei.

Parliament's decisions are essentially subject to the "Guardian Council," the body under the Iranian Leader that can veto parliamentary decisions, resend them, or ratify them after consulting the Leader. With the absence of influential figures from moderates and conservatives from the race and reformists calling it "a non-free and unfair election," competition will take place between hardliners and unknown conservatives loyal to Iran's Islamic revolutionary ideals.

Former reformist President Mohammad Khatami did not participate in the elections. His assistant, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, said, "Khatami believed that the only way to spread his compassionate words was by not voting. Anyone who sought this goal in some way," denying at the same time that Khatami thought about boycotting the political system.

Azar Mansoori, secretary-general of the 'Reform Front', said Khatami "supported the 'Reform Front' strategy in the elections."

Before the voting process, the 'Reform Front' said, "These elections are devoid of meaning and futile in running the country."

The Interior Ministry announced today (Saturday) the re-election of President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline stream member, to the Assembly of Experts with 82.5 percent of the vote.

The official IRNA agency said that Sadegh Larijani, head of the Expediency Council, failed to reach the Assembly of Experts after his defeat in the northern province of Mazandaran, his birthplace. Hassan Rouhani, elected president of Iran with two landslide victories in 2013 and 2017 and promised to reduce the country's diplomatic isolation, was barred from running, sparking criticism from moderates.

Rouhani sent three messages to the Guardian Council, inquiring about the reasons for his exclusion after 24 years of membership in the council.

Zeidabadi said the elections "have no democratic value, but the lineup that emerges from them can somewhat show future trends."

He added, "Given the approval of many unknown faces, there was a possibility that parliament seats could be filled by people without specific political orientations but opposed to the current situation."

"This possibility exists, but we must wait to know the orientations of the majority that reached the parliament," he stressed, emphasizing that "it will be a farce, possibly the strangest parliament in Iran."

Before the voting process, comments by Iranian Leader's advisor Gholamali Haddadadel generated wide controversy in political circles when he likened Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf to a 'Resurrection' tree and other candidates to 'climbing plants on it.'

Zeidabadi said, "The latest results in Tehran show that the conservative voting system has shifted its compass toward (the climbing plants)," pointing out that it tips the balance in favor of the conservative 'Paydari' faction, rather than Ghalibaf and Haddad Adel.

He wondered, "What relationship exists between the election winners in Tehran, from an ideological and living standard standpoint, and millions of people in the capital?"

Iranian analyst Saeed Shariati noted on the 'Expediency' platform that "the rate of abstention is 80 percent, in the country's political center, and it exceeds 70 percent in the major cities, and 60 percent across the country. Understand the people's most peaceful message; this people is not your enemy. It denies the way of governance."