Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Monday, Jan 13, 2025

The Day After Assad: Can Syria Steer Clear of the Libyan Pitfall?

With Assad's regime weakening, the Middle East prepares for either the prospect of stabilization or a plunge into chaos.
The imminent downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a pivotal moment for the Middle East, filled with both danger and opportunity.

Similar to Libya's spiral into chaos after Muammar Qaddafi's fall, Syria's future depends on whether regional and international actors can devise a coordinated strategy for the post-Assad era.

Without decisive collaborative action, Syria risks becoming a failed state riddled with unchecked militias and geopolitical conflicts.

Libya's disintegration serves as a stark warning.

After Qaddafi’s removal, the lack of a cohesive national framework led to power vacuums, fueling terrorism and regional instability.

Syria’s situation, however, is even more intricate.

Its tribal and ethnic divisions are exacerbated by significant geopolitical stakes.

The Golan Heights, for example, makes Syria’s future a crucial security issue for Israel.

While a stable central government might be desirable, stability does not always align with Israel’s strategic interests.

A fractured Syria could diminish Iran’s influence, disrupting logistical support for Hezbollah—a strategic opportunity Israel might seize.

Regional powers have an equally essential role.

The United States, with its strategic presence at the border triangle of Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, holds significant influence.

Turkey, with its interest in limiting Kurdish autonomy, adds another layer of complexity.

Could changing dynamics lead to renewed Israeli-Turkish cooperation?

While such a partnership is conceivable, Turkey’s priorities may vary, focusing more on internal issues than regional stabilization.

For Israel, securing the Golan Heights and ensuring demilitarization along its borders are vital.

Yet, the challenge goes beyond borders.

Preventing the deployment of advanced weaponry within Syria and building ties with opposition groups will be key to shaping a favorable post-Assad environment.

Meanwhile, disconnecting Syria from the 'Axis of Resistance'—effectively cutting Iranian and Hezbollah connections—could shift the regional power balance for decades.

Achieving this necessitates a coordinated strategy among the United States, Israel, and other regional players.

The stakes are immense.

If Syria avoids Libya’s trajectory, it could set a model for successful post-conflict stabilization in the Middle East.

Alternatively, failure could plunge the region deeper into turmoil.

The day after Assad's fall will redefine not only Syria but also the strategic landscape of the entire region.

The world is watching—can global and regional leaders meet the challenge, or will history descend into chaos once more?
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