Arab Press

بالشعب و للشعب
Sunday, Nov 23, 2025

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

The International Monetary Fund's prescription for dealing with the cost of living crisis is likely to be seized upon by Rishi Sunak's supporters as evidence that his blueprint is the right course for the UK government to take.

The world's lender of last resort has appealed for central banks to raise interest rates and for governments to take a responsible stance with public finances while warning of a harder impact from the global inflation shock.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) used its updated World Economic Outlook to take another red pen to growth forecasts as economies battle the impact of rising prices.

It said that growth was "stalling" in the world's three largest economies (the US, China and eurozone) as a consequence of the deteriorating picture for inflation, linked to the COVID pandemic and latterly Russia's war in Ukraine, forecasting that the problem would remain more stubborn than predicted in its previous update.

Chillingly it warned that under a "plausible" scenario, downside risks for the global economy including a complete shutdown in Russian gas supplies to Europe and prolonged zero-COVID lockdowns in China would result in one of the worst performances for output since 1970 if realised.

The fund's new forecasts saw global growth of 3.2% for 2022 - a downwards revision of 0.4% on April's forecast.

Much of that figure was accounted for by a massive 1.4% downgrade for the United States - the world's largest economy.

The IMF said it now expected growth of just 2.3% this year as a result of an inflation rate that, like in the UK, was at a 40-year high.

It said that disruption to trade flows with China was another big factor behind the downgrade and warned growth would stall further, to just 1%, in 2023.



The report downgraded its expectations for Chinese growth this year by 1.1% to just 3.3% as it also faces inflationary pressures but also battles COVID outbreaks through shutdowns of major cities that have inflicted huge damage on its manufacturing sector.

The UK, the IMF projected, would see a growth of 3.2% this year - above those of its biggest competitors including France and Germany - but it repeated its forecast that output would ease significantly to just 0.5% in 2023 to become the slowest among the G7.

Russia was tipped to see its economy contract by 6% this year and by 3.5% in 2023 as it grapples with the effects of Western sanctions.

The sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine have exacerbated the global inflation problem as it has forced countries to scramble for alternative supplies of key commodities including wheat, sunflower oil, oil and natural gas.

The IMF urged central bank and government action to help bring down inflationary pressures, with its fiscal prescription favouring the stance taken by former chancellor Rishi Sunak as he battles Liz Truss for the Tory leadership and keys to Number 10.

"With increasing prices continuing to squeeze living standards worldwide, taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers", the fund said.

"Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but the delay will only exacerbate them.

"Targeted fiscal support can help cushion the impact on the most vulnerable, but with government budgets stretched by the pandemic and the need for a disinflationary overall macroeconomic policy stance, such policies will need to be offset by increased taxes or lower government spending."

The Conservative leadership race has been dominated by the candidates' approach to the cost of living crisis.

Ms Truss, the foreign secretary, favours a "bold" tax cut agenda to prevent the economy from going into reverse while the former occupant of Number 11 has ruled out giveaways in the short term for fear of fuelling inflation further.

The Bank of England, for its part, has raised the Bank rate at each meeting since December last year but is under pressure to opt for a sharper hike at its meeting early next month.

Governor Andrew Bailey has said that a 50 basis points increase, which would take its core rate to 1.75%, is on the table but not necessarily on the cards.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the fund's chief economist, wrote: "Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying it will only exacerbate the hardship.

"Central banks that have started tightening should stay the course until inflation is tamed."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Arab Press
0:00
0:00
Close
Saudi Arabia Charts Tech and Nuclear Leap Under Crown Prince’s U.S. Visit
Trump Elevates Saudi Arabia to Major Non-NATO Ally Amid Defense Deal
Trump Elevates Saudi Arabia to Major Non-NATO Ally as MBS Visit Yields Deepened Ties
Iran Appeals to Saudi Arabia to Mediate Restart of U.S. Nuclear Talks
Musk, Barra and Ford Join Trump in Lavish White House Dinner for Saudi Crown Prince
Lawmaker Seeks Declassification of ‘Shocking’ 2019 Call Between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince
US and Saudi Arabia Forge Strategic Defence Pact Featuring F-35 Sale and $1 Trillion Investment Pledge
Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Emerges as Key Contender in Warner Bros. Discovery Sale
Trump Secures Sweeping U.S.–Saudi Agreements on Jets, Technology and Massive Investment
Detroit CEOs Join White House Dinner as U.S.–Saudi Auto Deal Accelerates
Netanyahu Secures U.S. Assurance That Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge Will Remain Despite Saudi F-35 Deal
Ronaldo Joins Trump and Saudi Crown Prince’s Gala Amid U.S.–Gulf Tech and Investment Surge
U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum Sees U.S. Corporate Titans and Saudi Royalty Forge Billion-Dollar Ties
Elon Musk’s xAI to Deploy 500-Megawatt Saudi Data Centre with State-backed Partner HUMAIN
U.S. Clears Export of Advanced AI Chips to Saudi Arabia and UAE Amid Strategic Tech Partnership
xAI Selects Saudi Data-Centre as First Customer of Nvidia-Backed Humain Project
President Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington Amid Strategic Deal Talks
Saudi Crown Prince to Press Trump for Direct U.S. Role in Ending Sudan War
Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince: Five Key Takeaways from the White House Meeting
Trump Firmly Defends Saudi Crown Prince Over Khashoggi Murder Amid Washington Visit
Trump Backs Saudi Crown Prince Over Khashoggi Killing Amid White House Visit
Trump Publicly Defends Saudi Crown Prince Over Khashoggi Killing During Washington Visit
President Donald Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at White House to Seal Major Defence and Investment Deals
Saudi Arabia’s Solar Surge Signals Unlikely Shift in Global Oil Powerhouse
Saudi Crown Prince Receives Letter from Iranian President Ahead of U.S. Visit
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Begins Washington Visit to Cement Long-Term U.S. Alliance
Saudi Crown Prince Meets Trump in Washington to Deepen Defence, AI and Nuclear Ties
Saudi Arabia Accelerates Global Mining Strategy to Build a New Economic Pillar
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Arrives in Washington to Reset U.S.–Saudi Strategic Alliance
Saudi-Israeli Normalisation Deal Looms, But Riyadh Insists on Proceeding After Israeli Elections
Saudis Prioritise US Defence Pact and AI Deals, While Israel Normalisation Takes Back Seat
Saudi Crown Prince’s Washington Visit Aims to Advance Defence, AI and Nuclear Cooperation
Saudi Delegation Strengthens EU–MENA Security Cooperation in Lisbon
Saudi Arabia’s Fossil-Fuel Dominance Powers Global Climate Blockade
Trump Organization Engages Saudi Government-Owned Real-Estate Deal Amid White House Visit
Trump Organization Nears Billion-Dollar Saudi Real Estate Deal Amid White House Diplomacy
Israel Presses U.S. to Tie Saudi F-35 Sale to Formal Normalisation
What We Know Now: Donald Trump’s Financial Ties to Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s Ambitious Defence Wish List for Washington: From AI Drones to Nuclear Umbrella
Analysis Shows China, Saudi Arabia and UAE among Major Recipients of Climate Finance Loans
Why a Full Saudi–Israel Normalisation Deal Eludes Trump’s Reach
Trump Presses Saudi Arabia to Normalise Ties with Israel as MBS Prepares for White House Visit
US-Saudi Summit Set for November 18 Seeks Defence Pact and Israel Normalisation Momentum
Comcast CEO Brian Roberts Visits Saudi Arabia Amid Potential Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Cristiano Ronaldo Embraces Saudi Arabia’s 2034 World Cup Vision with Key Role
Saudi Arabia’s Execution Campaign Escalates as Crown Prince Readies U.S. Visit
Trump Unveils Middle East Reset: Syria Re-engaged, Saudi Ties Amplified
Saudi Arabia to Build Future Cities Designed with Tourists in Mind, Says Tourism Minister
Saudi Arabia Advances Regulated Stablecoin Plans with Global Crypto Exchange Support
Saudi Arabia Maintains Palestinian State Condition Ahead of Possible Israel Ties
×